Energy Technology and Behavior: Opportunities for Research and Innovation

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Energy Technology and BehaviorOpportunities for
Research and Innovation
Energy, Technology and Behavior Workshop
Ontario Centres of Excellence Keynote
Address Toronto, Ontario, Canada 11 June
2009 Paul C. Stern U.S. National Research
Council
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Questions to be Addressed

• How large is the need for reduced energy use?
• What is the potential for increased energy
  savings in the household sector?
• What are the barriers? Why has the potential not
  been achieved?
• How much of the potential reduction is reasonably
  achievable? How?
• What is possible beyond the household?
• What is the role of behavior beyond energy
  efficiency?

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How big is the need?
Source International Energy Agency, World
Energy Outlook 2007
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Households account for a major portion of energy
use2001 U.S. Energy Use Profile Source Shui
Bin, Joint Global Change Research Institute
(forthcoming 2008)
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The efficiency gapEnergy savings with
available technology, no net cost

• Estimated potential emissions reduction from
  cost-effective use of existing technology, U.S.
  households (Dietz, Gardner, Gilligan, Stern, and
  Vandenbergh, in preparation)
• MtC Percent
• Building shells 25.2
• Home heating and cooling efficiency 12.2
• Efficient home appliances 22.8
• Vehicle efficiency 63.7
• 19.5
• Home equipment adjustments, maintenance 15.1
• Daily in-home actions 25.3
• Auto maintenance 8.6
• Driving behavior 24.1
• Carpooling, trip chaining 36.1
• 17.1
• TOTAL 233.1 36.6
• (of sector)

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How can this gap persist?

• The dominant analytical model
• (the Physical-Technical-Economic Model, or PTEM
  Lutzenhiser, 2009)
• does not adequately explain behavior
• The model
• Energy consumption will be reduced if and only
  if
• Existing technologies can provide energy services
  with less energy
• They do so at zero or negative net cost

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A classification of household actions

• Household actions that reduce direct energy use
  can be classified by their behavioral demands
• Adopting more efficient technology
• Weatherization investments (including HVAC)
• Other energy-efficient equipment
• Changing use of technology
• Adjustment of household equipment
• Maintenance of household equipment
• Daily actions or routines

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A behaviorally realistic analysis--the context
of behavior

• First cost of efficiency improvements (not only
  life-cycle cost)
• Split incentives (e.g., owner renter)
• Supply chain issues (choices by manufacturers,
  builders, retailers, repair personnel, etc.)
• Regulatory barriers (e.g., utilities do not
  invest unless they are allowed to earn returns)
• Difficulty/impossibility of getting useful,
  credible, targeted information on savings from
  specific actions
• Infrastructure barriers (e.g., suburbanization)
• Consumerist cultural pressures (increasing home
  size, vehicle power over time)
• Lesson the context of household choice
  constrains the ability to reduce emissions

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A behaviorally realistic analysis--psychological
issues

• Invisibility of energy use and savings
• Available information is not easily to understand
• Cognitive heuristics and habits
• availability heuristicfocus on the actions that
  are easiest to think of but not the most
  effective
• divided accountsenergy efficiency treated as an
  expenditure, not compared to other investments
• Economizing on the cognitive effort needed to
  get useful, credible, targeted information
• Motives beyond self-interested cost minimization
• Lessons
• Reducing external barriers to change is not
  sufficient
• Reducing psychological barriers is also not
  sufficient

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Its not easy being green!
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Implications for action What not to do

• There are usually multiple barriers to taking any
  new action
• Policies typically address only one barrierwith
  limited results
• Prices and financial incentives produce change,
  but
• the efficiency gap is the change they fail to
  produce
• they could be made much more effective
• Information on what to do Necessary, but of
  limited value by itself
• Persuasion Difficult to change attitudes, and
  doing so rarely changes important behaviors

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Implications for action What to do

• In general terms, we have known since the 1980s
• The most effective policies are multi-pronged
• For technology adoption Strong weatherization
  programs (Hood River and Bonneville programs,
  USA, 1980s) 20 retrofits/yr
• Strong financial incentives to lower first cost
• Convenience
• Quality assurance
• Community-based social marketing
• For technology use Energy-use feedback reduce
  consumption 5-15 with existing technology
• Credible, targeted information on savings
  achieved
• Frequent feedback
• Community-based social marketing

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Strategy for finding effective actions

• The details vary. So
• Identify the behaviors with greatest carbon
  impact (and who the key actors are)
• Identify the barriers to adoption for each target
  behavior
• Address multiple barriers with multiple
  interventions and targetsfull court press
• Full-court press is behavior specific

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How much of the potential can reasonably be
achieved?

• Estimates for USA based on most effective
  practices (Dietz, Gardner, Gilligan, Stern, and
  Vandenbergh, in preparation)
• Ground rules
• Use only technology available at retail
• No new standards or regulations
• Choose actions with negative cost, zero cost, or
  attractive returns on investment to consumer
• No appreciable change in lifestyle/loss of
  well-being
• No appreciable change required in preferences for
  energy services (comfort, speed, etc.)
• Emissions reductions without suffering a timid
  program

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What can be achieved?Reasonably Achievable
Energy Use Reduction (estimated of U.S.
national household share, year 10)

• Category 10 yr
• Weatherization, HVAC 5.1
• Other Equipment 9.0
• Maintenance 1.5
• Adjustment 0.4
• Daily Activities 3.8
• TOTAL 19.8
• and there are other behaviors not covered
• (e.g., US regulation mandates phaseout of
  incandescent lighting in 5 yr, preempting
  behavioral interventions and adding 4-5)

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National and Global Implications

• These behavioral changes can reduce U.S.
  emissions by 7-8 by year 10 (0.12 GtC), from
  only one sector, and without sacrifice
• slightly more than the entire emissions of France
• And this estimate is conservative
• It does not include technologies on the verge of
  mass market penetration (e.g., heat pump water
  heating and space conditioning, electric
  vehicles, LED lighting)

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What would it take to achieve this?

• Full-court press programs that combine policy
  types (as learned in 1980s)
• Research to identify important targets and the
  barriers and opportunities for each
• Careful program design with experimentation to
  find most effective full court press
• Research on how best to design for particular
  actions (information systems, messages,
  incentives)
• Research to evaluate programs and learn from
  experience
• Financial incentivesprobably large ones for home
  weatherization

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Beyond the efficiency gap

• Consumer expenditures that may not produce good
  financial returns to consumer but have social
  returns
• Indirect energy use (effect of non-energy
  expenditures on commodity chains 27 of U.S.
  emissions)
• Green power, carbon offsets, etc.
• Reengineering of consumer products
• Tighter product standards or regulations
• Downsizing houses, cars, etc.
• Controversial behavioral regulation (e.g., lower
  speed limits)
• Lower standards for thermal comfort, mobility

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Research and innovation beyond the efficiency gap

• Demonstration projects to raise visibility
• Trustworthy, credible information on the costs
  and environmental/social effectiveness of these
  actions
• Finding and addressing all the barriers to
  change, as for closing the efficiency gap (not
  just technical and financial barriers)

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Opportunities in Organizational Behavior

• Reduce direct emissions by organizations
• Act to reduce emissions in commodity chains
  (e.g., supply choices, product design for life
  cycle emissions reduction, changes in product
  mix)
• Develop new low-emission technologies
• Develop user-friendly information products (e.g.,
  better smart meters, building ratings, carbon
  calculators)
• Develop and market green designs for buildings,
  transport, settlements
• Seek green marketing options that really reduce
  emissions

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Research and innovation for organizational
behavior

• Research to identify opportunities in supply
  chains
• Research to identify major barriers to
  organizational change
• Campaigns to demonstrate new options to decision
  makers
• Trustworthy information systems for consumer
  products (e.g., certification, labeling) to allow
  customers to select products with low life cycle
  emissions

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Beyond energy efficient technology

• Green design for buildings, transportation,
  communities
• Distributed renewable energy supply systems
• Large-scale energy technology (renewables,
  biofuels, CCS, etc.)

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Research and innovation beyond energy efficient
technology

• Research and demonstrations of green designs
  taking users into account
• Research to understand and address barriers to
  adoption of distributed renewables
• Research to identify public concerns with
  emerging energy technologies
• Participatory design and monitoring to address
  concerns

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Public policy opportunities

• Policy goal Make it easier to be green
• Incentives to overcome financial barriers
• Energy technology RD
• Public investments in green design for buildings,
  transport systems, and communities
• Incentives for more compact settlements
• Support for demonstration projects
• Research to identify and overcome barriers to
  behavioral change

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More policy opportunities

• Investments in measurement and indicators to make
  energy information accessible, credible, and
  targeted
• Improving consumer energy information (e.g., home
  energy ratings)
• Make monitoring technology consumer friendly
  (smart meters, heat loss sensors)
• Develop community-based programs (e.g., ride
  sharing, bicycle programs, energy saving
  competitions)

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One more policy opportunityCritical
conversations

• National conversations about long-term goals and
  the role of technology
• Engage energy users, product suppliers, and
  government agencies to
• --find new market opportunities
• --new product mixes
• --modify supply systems
• --address barriers for new technologies and
  designs
• Ambitious goals cannot be reached (or attempted)
  without developing shared commitment

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Sources and contact information

• G.T. Gardner and P.C. Stern, Environmental
  Problems and Human Behavior, 2nd ed. Pearson
  Custom Publishing, 2002.
• P.C. Stern, Environmentally significant behavior
  in the home. Pp. 363-382 in A. Lewis, ed., The
  Cambridge Handbook of Psychology and Economic
  Behaviour, Cambridge, U.K. Cambridge University
  Press, 2008.
• Gardner, G.T., and Stern, P.C. The short list
  Most Effective Actions U.S. Households Can Take
  to Limit Climate Change. Environment, 2008,
  50(5), 13-24.
• L. Lutzenhiser et al., Behavioral assumptions
  underlying california residential sector energy
  efficiency programs. Paper for California
  Institute of Energy and Environment, April 2009.
• T. Dietz, G.T. Gardner, J. Gilligan, P.C. Stern,
  and M. Vandenbergh, The behavioral wedge
  Household actions can rapidly reduce U.S. carbon
  emissions, in preparation.
• Contact Paul C. Stern
• National Research Council, Washington DC, USA
• pstern_at_nas.edu