Highlights of ICARDAs Impact Assessment Research

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Highlights of ICARDAs Impact Assessment Research

• K. Shideed

IAFP-SPIA Meeting, 1011 November 2008, EMBRAPA,
Brazil
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Highlights of Major completed and on-going
ICARDAs IA Research 2007 08

• Within the framework of its Social, Economic and
  Policy Research Program (SEPR), ICARDA has
  maintained an active research agenda on assessing
  the impact of the research investments in crop
  improvement, NRM, policy oriented research and
  others.
• The IA research is focusing on documenting the
  uptake of improved technologies and practices,
  identifying major constraints hindering the wide
  adoption of improved options, and assessing the
  impact of adopted technologies.
• Various indicators have been used to document the
  economic, environmental and social impacts of
  research investments in dry areas.
• Important advances in methodologies and lessons
  learned were generated from these studies,
  especially those associated with the System-wide
  initiatives led by SPIA.

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Assessing the impact of agricultural research on
rural poverty

• Research sites
• Zone 2 and 3 (250-350 mm rainfall) in four
  provinces (Aleppo, Idleb, Hassakeh, Raqqa), Raqqa
• Collaborators
• Aleppo University
• Extension Services -MoA
• Virginia Tech University
• ICARDA
• Research methods
• Secondary data collection, production, weather
  data,
• Household survey covering variety adoption
• Consumption expenditure and income survey
• Seed production and distribution analysis
• Poverty assessment using FGT indicators (poverty
  head count, poverty gap and severity of poverty)
• Economic surplus modeling
• Modeling the distributional effects of technology
  adoption

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Farmers perception and adoption of drought
tolerant crop varieties- 1

• Understanding how farmers decide on adopting
  drought tolerant crop varieties is important in
  devising extension support and seed distribution
  strategies as part of drought mitigation
  programs.
• Main objectives are to assess
• how farmers perceive drought incidences, and
• how they decide on adopting drought tolerant
  wheat varieties.
• Two surveys the first phase was completed in
  2007 and a second round survey was done in summer
  2008.

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Assessing farmers preference of drought tolerant
germplasm- 2

• Research sites
• 2 sites in Meknes region, Morocco
• Collaborators
• ICARDA- NARP
• INRA-Morocco
• U California Davis
• CIMMYT
• Research methods
• Secondary data collection, production and whether
  data
• Household survey
• Farmers perceptions of risk survey
• Farmers assessment of risk using SMS text
  messaging
• Vulnerability analysis
• Modelling

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Impacts of Cereals and Food Legume Technologies
in the Nile Valley and Sub-Sahara Africa Region

• To assess the adoption of improved wheat, faba
  bean, and chickpea technologies and their impacts
  on
• productivity, technical efficiency,
  profitability, household food security, and
  poverty status
• A sample of 915 households in Egypt, Ethiopia,
  Sudan and Yemen.
• Main Results
• The productivity and efficiency impacts, a as a
  result of technology adoption, are mixed.
• technical efficiency gain was large (82 to 88)
  but productivity gains low (14) in irrigated
  systems in Egypt.
• Productivity increased by 44 with no evidence of
  change in technical efficiency in Sudan.
• In less intensive production systems in Ethiopia
  productivity increased by 37 and technical
  efficiency improved from 62 to 64 for faba bean,
  and 50 to 52 for chickpea.
• The recommended technologies are contributing to
  increased household incomes.

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Impact of improved wheat varieties in Turkey

• Under the joint ICARDA-CIMMYT wheat Improvement
  Program
• To assess the impact of new cultivars on
  productivity, hh incomes and poverty
• Data were collected from a sample of 800
  households in 5 provinces
• Wheat productivity was doubled under rainfed,
  while it increased by 19 in irrigated system
• A net increase of 20 in total factor
  productivity of wheat among producers.
• A substantial improvement in yield stability in
  the respective production systems
• Increased rain water productivity at 0.72 kg/mm
  compared to 0.71 kg/mm for other new varieties,
  and 0.47 kg/mm for old-improved varieties.
• Increased poors per capita income to 14.3
  through the adoption of the monitored varieties
  compared to those in the same wealth group using
  other new varieties (12.7) or old-improved
  varieties (10.7).

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Economics of MWH Techniques in Jordan

• Per capita water availability is estimated at 160
  m3/year (all uses), well below the water poverty
  line
• To estimate the adoption path and assess the
  impact of alternative water harvesting techniques
  using economic and environmental indicators.
• MWH has greatly improved the efficiency of barley
  and shrub plantations.
• The IRR of planting barley with water harvesting
  is estimated at 17 compared to 8 for planting
  barley under farmer practice.
• Similarly, the IRR is 13 for planting shrubs
  with water harvesting compared to 7 for planting
  shrubs manually.
• The incorporation of the environmental benefits
  increased the IRR to 17, providing further
  justification to increase investments in water
  harvesting.

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Policy Influence and Returns to POR The case of
Barley Fertilization in Syria

• This part of SPIA initiative on assessing the
  impact of POR.
• Established the policy influence of POR and
  assessed its impact
• Methodology Stakeholders survey Economic
  surplus model.

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Assessing the economic impact of plant
participatory research

• The economic impact of participatory and
  conventional barley breeding research was
  assessed in Jordan.
• Major results are
• Methodology Farm survey, adoption indicators and
  modelling, IRR B-C ration
• Adoption rate for PPB varieties was 1030 and
  for CPB varieties 1050, depending on the
  province, while, productivity gains were 4085
  and 32-80 for varieties derived from the
  respective methods.
• The BC ratio for PPB is 3.91 and the IRR 27
  compared to 2.7 and 19 respectively for CPB.
  Sensitivity analysis shows that above 20 to 42.5
  yield increase or 7.5 to 22.5 adoption rate the
  PPB program remains more efficient than the CPB.

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Economic Analysis of SLM Options in Central Asia
(IFPRI ICARDA) New

• IFPRI and ICARDA are collaborating on the
  economic impact of sustainable land management
  options (SLM).
• The specific objectives are
• Identifying promising options to promote SLM in
  important agro-ecological and socio-economic
  contexts of Central Asia.
• Analyzing their feasibility and potential
  economic impacts.
• Identifying key constraints limiting adoption.
• This project is expected to draw important
  conclusions and implications for research and
  policy targeting.

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Impact Projections of Ug99 (Global Rust
Initiative) Proposed

• Wheat stem rust Ug99 poses a new threat to
  households food security and livelihoods in
  several countries in the CWANA region.
• A pilot study is being conducted in Ethiopia to
  assess households vulnerability to food
  insecurity, existing risk mitigation and coping
  strategies.
• It will be geo-referenced according to the
  prevalence, incidence of Ug99, and damage caused
  by the rust.
• Vulnerability results will help in effectively
  targeting households and wheat production systems
  with future interventions.
• The major objectives of this research are
• Assess rural households vulnerability to
  livelihood risks, existing coping strategies in
  differentiated wheat based farming systems.
• Develop impact assessment models to evaluate the
  actual and potential (predicted) food security
  and economic impacts of wheat stem rust in
  alternative cropping systems.

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Establishing Baseline Information
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Dissemination of Impact Results

• Results of impact studies have been made
  available in the public domain in the form of
  contributing papers at international conferences,
  posters, impact briefs, journal articles,
  research reports and other publications.

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International Workshop onPoverty-Targeted
Research for Improved Livelihoods in Dry Areas
Impacts Achieved and Lessons LearnedSponsored
by theInternational Center for Agricultural
Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)7 November
2008

• workshop will focus on three themes
• The dynamics of rural livelihoods and poverty
  assessment for targeting research and development
  investments in dry areas
• The effectiveness of research investment in
  improving rural livelihoods in dry areas
• Sources and costs of inefficiency in the use of
  scarce water resources in dry areas

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Workshop Program
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Dissemination of Impact Assessment Results
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ICARDA In-House Seminars 2007- 08