Tracking the Trucking Industry 2004 and Beyond

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Tracking the Trucking Industry2004 and Beyond

• Presented by
• Dan Murray
• American Transportation Research Institute

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The Economy Matters
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Manufacturing Production
Purchasing Managers Index
False Start
Growth Threshold
Decembers reading was the highest level in 20
years.
Source Institute for Supply Management
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Manufacturing Productivity(1992100)
The surge in productivity has been good for
businesses and consumers, but a mixed bag for
manufacturing workers Incomes Employment
Trend line
1970s 2.7 1980s 2.6 1990s 3.2 2000s 4.1
Sources Department of Labor ATA
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Retail SalesYear-Over-Year Growth
Consumer spending is more than 2/3 of the economy!
Sales excluding Autos
Total Sales
Source Department of Commerce
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Consumer Confidence
The problem with consumer confidence is that it
can be impacted by more than just economic events.
Iraq War
September 11th
Corp. Scandals
Iraq War
Source The Conference Board
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Todays Trucking Economics
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ATAs Monthly Truck Tonnage Index 1993100
Source American Trucking Associations
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Truckings Progress Since 1985
ATAs Monthly Truck Tonnage Index (1993 100)
6 Average Annual Growth Rate
Source American Trucking Associations
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Truckload Loads(1993100)
Large Carriers (More than 30 Million in annual
revenues)
Small Carriers (Less than 30 Million in annual
revenues)
Source ATAs Trucking Activity Report
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Truckload Loads(1996100 average length of haul
basis)
Source ATAs Trucking Activity Report
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LTL Volumes(1993100)
Small Carriers (Less than 300 Million in annual
revenues)
Recession hit LTL freight hard
Large Carriers (More than 300 Million in annual
revenues)
Strike
Source ATAs Trucking Activity Report
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Higher Diesel Prices Lead To More Trucking
Failures
Sources A.G. Edwards ATA
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Insurance Cost per Truck
Data based on publicly held truckload carriers
which disclose this information.
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Truckload Driver Turnover(Quarterly Annualized
Rates )
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Trucking in the Future
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Industry SnapshotFreight Movement

• Total Tonnage Moved
• 2002 - 8.88 Billion Tons
• 2008 - 10.1 Billion Tons
• A 13.7 increase in 6 years.
• Trucks carry 67.9 of total domestic tonnage in
  the U.S.

U.S. Freight Transportation ForecastTo 2014
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Industry SnapshotRevenue

• Total Revenue
• 2002 - 585.3 Billion
• 2008 - 745.0 Billion
• A 27.2 increase in 6 years.
• Trucking revenue represents 86.5 of all freight
  revenue

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Industry SnapshotFirms, Employment Equipment

• 610,000 Interstate for-Hire Carriers
• Total Employment
• - 10.1 million employees
• - 3.2 million truck drivers (CDL)
• 2.6 Million Class 8 Trucks 4.9 Million Trailers

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Non-Trucking Freight Growth

• Rail Trends
• 1.75 Billion Tons Moved in 2002
• Estimated Annual Rail Car Tonnage Growth
• 2003 2008 2.2
• Rail Carload Revenue
• 2002 - 34.7 Billion
• Truck Issue intermodal growth way up (8.8 in
  Q4, 03)

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Non-Trucking Freight Growth

• Air Cargo Trends
• 17.4 Million tons moved in 2002
• Estimated Annual Tonnage Growth
• 2003 - 2008 4.7
• Air Cargo Revenue
• 2002 - 14.1 Billion
• Truck Issue Air cargo interline service
  growing fast!

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Strategic Issues

• Taxes and User Fees
• 2003 Annual Taxes Paid on 5-Axle Semi
• State- 4,567
• Federal - 6,139
• TOTAL - 10,706
• New User Fees SAFETEA FAST Lanes

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Strategic Issues

• Insurance Costs
• 20 - 50 increases for good carriers
• New Hours of Service Regulations?
• Fuel Cost Volatility
• Jan. 02 - 1.16/Gallon
• June 04 - 2.00/Gallon

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Strategic Issues

• Driver Issues
• HOS
• Heated Economy Wage Increases
• Looming Retirements
• Turn-over vs. Churning
• Technology Utilization
• Growing Faster Among Large Carriers

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Strategic Issues

• Congestion
• Problematic but solutions may be worse
• Tolls
• Truck Bans
• Security Costs??
• US Patriot Act
• Truck Tracking
• Port Systems
• Shipper-Carrier Relationships

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Conclusion.
Good Time To Be A Survivor
Questions? Dmurray_at_trucking.org