Sigma and Delta S

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Sigma and Delta (ST) Scans
FAN Club 12 Feb 08 Dr Harry Woodroof Leader,
Delta (ST) Scan Horizon Scanning
Centre Government Office for Science Department
of Innovation, Universities and Skills Bay 250,
Kingsgate House, 66 74 Victoria St, London.
SW1E 6SW 44 (0)203 300 8840
Harry.Woodroof_at_dius.gsi.gov.uk
lthttp//www.foresight.gov.uk/horizonscanning/gt
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Horizon Scanning Evidential Tools (published
Dec 06)
www.sigmascan.org
Sigma Scan synthesis of best global futures work

• SCAN
• (everything)

Institute for the Future
Outsights / Ipsos MORI
Delta Scan cutting-edge perspectives of over 250
ST experts
www.deltascan.org
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Sigma and Delta (ST) Scan launch - Press
Coverage
Positive analysis Neutral reporting
Negative reporting
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• Sigma Scan
• scan of scans

The Sigma Scan is a synthesis of future issues
and trends covering the full public policy agenda
drawn from a range of sources (including think
tanks, academic publications, mainstream media,
corporate foresight, expert/strategic thinkers,
government sources, alternative journals,
charities/NGOs, blog sites, minority communities,
futurists).
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• Delta (ST) Scan
• expert views

The Delta (ST) Scan is an overview of future
science and technology issues and trends, with
contributions by science and technology experts
from the worlds of government, business, academia
and communication.
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• Sigma
• scan
• Right to live right to die?
• Global courting the supremacy of international
  law.
• Increase in e-commuting.
• UK rules OK isolationist Britain.
• End of public broadcasting.
• Ghettoisation of minority populations.
• Landfill capacity limits reached.
• Economic impact of ageing.
• The rights of robots.
• Corrupting aid flows
• .

• Delta
• (ST) scan
• Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine.
• Quantum chemistry for pollution abatement.
• Nanowire sensors for DNA testing.
• Advent of molecular archaeology.
• Computing on the human platform.
• Solar the energy wild-card.
• From ink-jet printing to personal fabrication.
• Brazils expanding tech. sector.
• .

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Scan Architecture - linking evidence and
analysis

• Summary sentence
• Supporting analysis (paras)
• Bullet-points
• Implications
• Barriers/inhibitors
• Early indicators
• Parallels/precedents
• Leading institutions
• Sources evidence-based
• Multi-level outputs
• Range single sentence to great detail
• Portal for further research

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• 2008 refresh of Scans

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• Julian Thompson
• Ipsos MORI

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Move from product to process
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Move from product to process

• Core principles
• Methodology
• Content
• Interface

More, better and distributed scanning
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• Core principles are these still valuable?
  realistic?

• Broad and eclectic definition of evidence
• Show competing and contradictory viewpoints
• Be as transparent as possible why is it there?
• Provide high level stimulus and rich content

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• Methodology rigour vs freedom?

• Developed a formal method for scanning - Aug
  2007. Expert review by Imperial College.
• Describes in detail the key stages in scanning
• Clarity re relevance, evidence genesis of
  Issues
• Ways to tag and map sources and evidence

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Strategic review
Peer (or network) review
Issue synthesis
Emergent/inductive
Purposive/deductive
Analysis
Evidence tagging
Source/gap scanning
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• Scan selection filters for transparency not
  exclusion
• Common framework for handling evidence and
  sources
• Issue genres wildcards, weak signals etc
• Mixture of creative/spontaneous and systematic/
  methodical
• Just initial guidelines we welcome suggestions!

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• Content mainstream ltgt marginal?

• Span best science ltgt alternative comment
• New papers being written but need community
• Sufficient volume to create momentum
• Different levels of content and effort
• Clear links into policy and business

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• Interface easy, intuitive and sticky

• Sort out poor search functionality single point
• More flexible, dynamic, attractive interface
• Open access and customisable
• Multiple ways through the data