Come Go Sit Stay

1
Come Go Sit Stay

• The challenges of studying the population of the
  Northern Territory

Dean Carson Tony Barnes 20 March 2008.
2
Outline

• History of the research program and NTG links
  (Tony)
• Population challenges in recent NT history
• The structure of the NT population
• Overview of the research program
• Understanding remoteness
• The ongoing research agenda
• Outcomes and outputs

3
Overview

• Critical issues
• Origins of program
• Desired impact

4
Critical Issues

• Uniqueness of NT population
• Changing composition and ageing
• Insights into future growth
• Mobility in, out and around the Territory
• Size does matter!

5
Uniqueness among Australian States and Territories

• Smallest size
• Sparsest
• Highest Indigenous
• Most mobile
• Youngest
• Most male
• Most difficult to measure

• Lowest life expectancy
• Highest birth rate
• Most peculiar age distribution
• Fastest ageing (in some ways)
• Highest and lowest incomes

6
Changing Composition and Ageing
7
Age Distribution of Territory and Australian
Populations, June 2006
Age
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
of Population
Northern Territory
Australia
Source Northern Territory Treasury ABS Cat No.
3201.0.
8
Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and
non-Indigenous Populations, June 2006
Age
80-84
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
1014
0-4
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
of Population
Indigenous
Non-Indigenous
Source Northern Territory Treasury ABS Cat No.
3201.0.
9
Population The Territory vs. Australia
1976
1996
Age Group
Age Group
85
85
8084
8084
7579
7579
7074
7074
6569
6569
6064
6064
5559
5559
5054
5054
4549
4549
4044
4044
3539
3539
3034
3034
2529
2529
2024
2024
1519
1519
1014
1014
59
59
04
04
19000
15000
11000
7000
3000
1000
5000
9000
13000
17000
19000
15000
11000
7000
3000
1000
5000
9000
13000
17000
no.
no.
1986
2006
Age Group
Age Group
85
85
8084
80

84
7579
75

79
7074
70

74
6569
65

69
6064
60

64
5559
55

59
5054
50

54
4549
45

49
4044
40

44
3539
35

39
3034
30

34
2529
25

29
2024
20

24
1519
15

19
1014
10

14
59
5

9
0

4
04
19000
15000
11000
7000
3000
1000
5000
9000
13000
17000
19000
15000
11000
7000
3000
1000
5000
9000
13000
17000
no.
no.
Australia (00)
Northern Territory
10
Population NT Indigenous vs. NT non-Indigenous
1976
1996
Age Group
Age Group
85
85
8084
80

84
7579
75

79
7074
70

74
6569
65

69
6064
60

64
5559
55

59
5054
50

54
45

49
4549
40

44
4044
35

39
3539
30

34
3034
25

29
2529
20

24
2024
15

19
1519
10

14
1014
5

9
59
0

4
04
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
no.
no.
1986
2006
Age Group
Age Group
85
85
8084
8084
7579
7579
7074
7074
6569
6569
6064
6064
5559
5559
5054
5054
4549
4549
4044
4044
3539
3539
3034
3034
2529
2529
2024
2024
1519
1519
1014
1014
59
59
04
04
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
no.
no.
Indigenous
Non-Indigenous
11
Change in the Territorys Population Indigenous
vs. non-Indigenous
12
Change in the Territorys Population Indigenous
vs. non-Indigenous
13
Change in the Territorys Population Indigenous
vs. non-Indigenous
Change 1996 to 2006
Age Group
85
8084
7579
7074
6569
6064
5559
5054
4549
4044
3539
3034
2529
2024
1519
1014
59
04
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
no.
Indigenous
Non-Indigenous
14
Insights Into Future Growth
15
Projected Population Increase 2006-2016 The
Territory vs. Australia
16
Projected Population Increase 2006-2016 NT
Indigenous vs. NT non-Indigenous
17
Mobility In, Out and Around the Territory

• Stable work force (growing)
• Provision of services

18
Size Does Matter!

• Population size means money
• NT Govt. budget, about 2.5B p.a., is 75 from
  GST revenues
• GST revenues distributed between states according
  to weighted population sizes
• Each non-Indigenous Territorian brings in about
  10k p.a.
• Each Indigenous Territorian brings in about 25k
  p.a.
• Compared with about 1-2k p.a. for each
  individual from big South-eastern states

19
Desired Impact on Governmental Policy and
Processes

• Better understanding of NT population issues and
  their consequences across NTG
• Improved NTG policies
• NTG able to influence ABS (and others) to measure
  population size/mobility more accurately

20
How Does Program Influence Government Policy and
Processes?

• Undertake high quality and timely research
• Well written up and disseminated research
  findings
• Being connected with government

21
How Did The Research Program Come To Be At SSPR?

• Recognised need and taking the opportunity
• Benefits to CDU, NTG and me
• - CDU-NTG partnership important
• Initial arrangements led to
• - ARC linkage grant (with NTG ABS)
• - Treasury research grant
• Satisfactory progress after 3 years lead to
  renewal of arrangement and Treasury grant

22
Challenges For Next Two Years

• Strategic leadership and research program (under
  Dean Carson)
• Maintain outcomes and NTG links (special focus on
  outputs)
• Secure at least one major grant, e.g. ARC
  linkage, possibly with NTG and ABS
• Secure other lines of research funding
• Leading to Treasury grant renewal in 2010

23
Population dynamics 1820-today

• What is important?
• Who is important?
• What has worked?
• Where have we come from?

24
Remains of the Victoria Settlement at Port
Essington Dept. Environment, Water, Heritage and
the Arts.
25
Peanut farming in Katherine in the 1940s Northern
Territory Library
26
Darwins Chinatown around 1930 Northern Territory
Library
27
Afghan Camel Train, Central Australia
1920s. Northern Territory Library
28
Cyclone Damage 1974. View down Parer
Drive Northern Territory Library
29
Net Interstate Migration - Alice Springs
2001-2006 2006 Census of Population and Housing
Net Intrastate Migration - Alice Springs
2001-2006 2006 Census of Population and Housing.
30
Big Mining Trucks 1971 Northern Territory
Library
31
NT baby 1950s. Northern Territory Library
32
Barrow Creek Cemetery 1962 Northern Territory
Library
33
Welcome sign at Alice Springs Airport Tourism NT
34
Recent Commentary

• 2004 Building Our Population NT Government
  population policy
• Literature on Indigenous demography in the NT
• Altman, Taylor, Condon . . .
• Inclusion of NT in some national summaries
• Continuing publications from SSPR
• Wilson, Creed, Barnes, Garnett . . .

35
The key divide Indigenous and non-Indigenous
populations
BUT knowledge is not well developed,
assumptions not well tested, evidence of changing
dynamics
36
Our current research

• Formal demography
• Mobility studies (short term and longer term
  populations)
• Population transitions
• Population policy/ economics

37
Formal demography

• Indigenous population change 1966-2031
• Population projections
• Baseline migration and mobility analysis
  1971-2006
• Methodologies for better estimation of small,
  dynamic, remote populations

38
Mobility studies

• Professional groups
• Northern Territory Population Mobility Survey
• Survey of recent departers from the NT
• In-depth interviews with NT residents
• Indigenous mobility

39
Population transitions

• Ageing and Indigenous populations
• The development of Darwin city
• The changing population of Alice Springs
• Ageing workforce

40
Policy and economy

• Implications for political representation
• What should a population policy look like?
• The policy implications of population ageing
• Migration and the knowledge economy

41
Themes and issues

• Theoretical issues
• Family migration
• Population dispersal
• Interaction between long term and short term
  populations
• Housing
• Accessibility

• NT in practice
• Remote
• Dispersed
• Small scale
• Dynamic
• Multi-faceted

42
Darwin and the rest
43
Flows patterns
Tourism flows 2004/5
Residential (interstate) migration flows 2001-2006
44
Random observations

• Population small but complex
• Migration studies of key importance
• Consequences need attention as well as causes
• Unpredictable but some aspects inevitable
• turn the temperature down and move it closer to
  Sydney

45
Things to do

• Urbanisation or urban drift?
• Changing Indigenous populations
• International migration
• Immigrants as markets
• Repeat visits
• Consequences of population dynamics
• Relationship between economic conditions and
  immigration probabilities

46
Tracking the research

• Seminars 4th and 18th April
• www.cdu.edu.au/sspr
• Ntpopulation.wordpress.com
• Collection of publications