Representation

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Representation

• 17 November 2008

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The Tracking Polls as of November 3

• Obama 51, McCain 44 (DemCorps 10/3011/2)
• Obama 51, McCain 43 (NBCWSJ 11/1-2)
• Obama 52, McCain 42 (Gallup 10/31-11/2)
• Obama 54, McCain 41 (CBS 10/30-11/1)
• Obama 54, McCain 43 (ABCPost 10/29-11/1)

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Link to CNN map
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(No Transcript)
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An Historic Election

• Obama 53 365 EV McCain 46 162 EV
• Obama carries the battleground states of Ohio,
  Florida, and Pennsylvania
• Obama also wins Virginia, North Carolina, and
  Indiana
• Obama wins south western states, Colorado, NM, NV
• Obama also picked up one electoral vote in
  Nebraska by winning in Omaha congressional
  district marking the first time a state has split
  its electoral votes.
• See NY Times map for shift in vote patterns. See
  also the National Journal website.
• Who voted for Obama? Exit Polls
• Turnout may have risen but only slightly one
  political scientist estimates a turnout of 61.4
  of eligible voters which represents a 1.3
  increase over 2004. It would be the largest
  turnout since the 62.5 percent turnout in 1968.

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Was it a Landslide?
Year Republican Democrat Difference
1976 47.9 50.1 2.2
1980 50.9 41.2 -9.7
1984 59 41 -18
1988 53.4 45.6 -7.8
1992 43.2 37.7 -5.5
1996 49 41 -8
2000 48 48 0
2004 50.7 48.3 -2.4
2008 46 53 7
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Incumbency Advantage

• Typically about 90 percent of House incumbents
  are reelected
• In the Senate, 78.6 percent have won reelection
  in the postwar period
• Even in years very unfavourable to one of the
  parties, a large majority win. In 1994, the
  Democrats worst year since 1946, 84 percent won.
  In 1974, 77 percent of the Republican incumbents
  who ran were returned to office.
• In 2006, 94 percent of House incumbents won in
  the Senate 79 percent were reelected.

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The 2008 Election

• Democrats picked up 20 seats in the House
• Democrats gained 6 seats, defeating Republican
  incumbents in North Carolina, New Hampshire, and
  Oregon. See NYTimes map.
• Alaska and Minnesota are still too close to call
  (206 vote Rep. lead in Minn), and Georgia will
  hold a runoff on Dec 2 (majority required)
• Several congressional districts still in doubt
  Alaska, Virginia, Ohio (open seat). See NYTimes
  map.

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Presidential Popularity and Congressional
Outcomes in the Midterm Elections in a
Presidents Second Term
Year President Approval House Senate
1950 Truman 41 -29 -6
1958 Eisenhower 57 -48 -13
1966 Johnson 44 -47 -4
1974 Nixon/Ford 53 -48 -5
1986 Reagan 64 -5 -8
1998 Clinton 65 5 0
2006 Bush 38 -28 -6
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Explanations for Incumbency Advantage

• Name Recognition
• Redistricting (in the House)
• Campaign finance system

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Elbridge Gerrys Salamander
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Gerrymandering

• Equal populations
• Partisan
• Incumbency
• Racial

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Racial Gerrmandering
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Campaign Spending
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Campaign Money

• A good candidate and a good message are not
  enough. Without money, the voters do not see the
  candidate or hear the message.
• In contemporary candidate-centered campaigns,
  candidates (as opposed to the party
  organizations) must assemble their own campaign
  teams, raise their own money, hire consultants
  and technical specialists, and design and execute
  their own individual campaign strategies.
• Recent elections reflect the rise in cost.

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Money Raised in 2008
Source www opensecrets.org
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Ethics and Honesty
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Attitudes about Campaign Finance
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The Campaign Finance Regulation System

• Campaign finance operates through two parallel
  systems
• Money going directly to candidates is subject to
  limits on the size of contributions and full
  disclosure of sources. See Federal Election
  Commission.
• Presidential candidates who accept public funds
  also must observe spending limits. But money
  raised and spent outside of the candidates
  campaigns (soft money, issue advocacy) is lightly
  regulated and not subject to limits.

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The Role of the Representative

• Trusteeslegislators who use their own judgment
  to decide what is right
• Delegates-legislators who carry out the precise
  wishes of their constituents back home regardless
  of what they personally believe is best
• Descriptive-does congress look like America?

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African American and Hispanics in Congress
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Women in Congress
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Policy Representation