Mike McCoy

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The Path to Integrated Modelsin California
NYMTC May 1, 2008

• Mike McCoy
• Information Center for the Environment
• U.C. Davis
• http//ice.ucdavis.edu

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2005 Review California MPO Practice and Needs
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(No Transcript)
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Criteria
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Recommendations

• The four large MPOs (SCAG, MTC/ABAG, SANDAG, and
  SACOG) strongly consider implementing an
  integrated economic model in the near future.
• Medium-sized MPOs and RTPAs in California
  consider implementing simpler urban models, such
  as PLACES, What If?, UPlan, and others.
• Data sharing should be instituted among MPOs,
  RTPAs, and Caltrans (much like NYMTC Strategic
  Data Coordination Effort).
• Caltrans should consider implementing a statewide
  integrated interregional urban model.

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NYMTC
ABAG/ MTC
ABAG/ MTC
ABAG/ MTC
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Results/Status

• SACOG calibrating PECAS, SANDAG developing PECAS,
  SCAG at RFP stage for integrated economic model,
  ABAG assembling data for integrated economic
  model
• 18 Medium-sized MPO/RTPAs have installed and are
  using UPlan integrated with their travel models.
• Data sharing begun between SCAG, SANDAG, ABAG and
  SACOG. Center for data management being given
  funding consideration by State
• First phase of statewide demonstration
  interregional PECAS model finished in June 2008.
  Second phase demonstration PECAS model complete
  June 2009. First production PECAS model expected
  in June 2010

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Land Use Affects Travel Demand Travel
Facilities Affect Land Use and They All Affect
the Economy
Why Did These Users Adopt?
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Moreover

• 1. These models allow us to test a wide variety
  of policy, planning and investment alternatives
• 2. They create a consistent set of economic
  rules and criteria to test the alternatives.
• 3. They respond to a wide variety of statutes
  requiring more accurate forecasts than in the
  past.

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Most Importantly Its About the 3 Es

• Economic benefits for the state and its counties
• Equity benefits for households by income
• Environmental
• Air quality and GHG production
• Conversion of habitats and ag lands

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How Do The Models Do This?The SACOG Case
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Goods, Services, Labor and Space







Producing Sectors









Economic Flows






Consuming Sectors













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Economic Interactions Production - Exchange -
Consumption
total consumption
buying allocation process
exchange zone
exchange zone
exchange zone
selling allocation process
total production
total production
total production
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Economic Interactions Production - Exchange -
Consumption
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allocating production activity to zones
production allocation
allocating consumption to commodities
allocating production to commodities
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technology selection
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allocating produced commodities to selling
locations
selling allocations
buying allocations
allocating consumed commodities to buying
locations
3-level nested logit model
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Introduction PECAS Zones
Production Location
Consumption Location
exchange zone
Consumption Location
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Introduction Hypothetical Proposed Road
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Without Road 2050 Commercial Floorspace per
Zone Increase
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With Road 2050 Commercial Floorspace per Zone
Increase
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Now how will this help conform to statute?

• SAFETEA-LU 4 objectives
• Increase mobility and economic development
• Decrease pollution and Green House Gasses
• Context sensitive planning
• Scenario Planning

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How will this help conform to statute?

• Clean Air Act
• GHG Measures
• Clean Water Act
• Runoff
• Civil Rights Act
• Environmental Justice
• Executive Order 12898
• FESA
• Conversion of habitat for listed species

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What Did It Cost Them Staff

• Forecast Program Manager
• Transportation Modeler
• Land-Use Modeler
• Regional Economist
• Socio-Economic (Demographic) Modeler
• Programmer (Advanced)

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What Did It Cost Them Data

• Transport
• Transport costs for goods and services
• Off-peak auto times and cost skims from travel
  model
• Value of time and commuting cost for labour
• Land Use
• Land cover data with existing use, zoning,
  vacant/protectedintensity of development
• Floorspace
• Real estate prices by TAZ
• Typical floorspace use rates by household type
  and housing type from PUMS

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What Did It Cost Them Data

• Typical floorspace use rates by employment type
• Relative quantity of housing by zone from Census
  SF3Crosstab of space type by household type
• Relative quantity of housing by zone from Census
  SF3Crosstab of space type by household type
• Construction cost data
• Employment
• Employment by occupation and household category
• Occupation by industry crosstab from PUMS ES202
  or InfoUSA data on employment location
• Census
• Census household distributions by TAZ

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What Did It Cost Them Time

• Time
• Build
• 2 Year minimum process
• 3 Years easier on everybody
• Run
• About 30 hours per scenario

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What Are They Doing Next

• SACOG will finish calibration and study
  investment and policy
• SANDAG will use their model to figure out how to
  direct development to the nodes they recognized
  in their Regional Comprehensive Plan
• The Statewide model will be used by the
  Governors Office for interagency infrastructure
  investment decisions

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Wide Range of Modeling Papers, Information and
the UPlan User Manualwww.ice.ucdavis.edu/ummcm
ccoy_at_ucdavis.edu