Earthquake Prediction Research [EPR]

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Earthquake Prediction Research EPR
Disaster Management Strategy ? -
M.V.Ramanamurthy.
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• What is going on now?
• What is needed?
• Why it is difficult?
• What is to be done?
• Recent predictions.

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PRINCIPLE METHODS IN EPR

• 1) Astronomical
• Stellar constellation (planets stars)
• Moon, a Celestial body Earth in
  straight line
• Turning points of the moons relative
  motion to the earth
• Tidal Generation Forces Resonance TGFR
• Data can be computed in advance

much in advance
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• 2) Geomagnetic field change
• Change in Geomagnetic field occurs 6-8 m before
  EQ.
• - Continuous monitoring Geomagnetic field
  is required
• Audio, video spectral disturbances just 10 to
  20 hrs
• before earthquake occurrence.
• - Lattur Andamans EQs phone complaints
  increased.
• - In Turkey, Japan China mobile phones
  
• malfunctioned 50 to 100 minutes before
  EQ
• - Telephone exchange data useful in
  land, mobile.

6-8 m
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• 3) Triangular network GPS stations
• Area change ratio from Simultaneous
  continuous
• Geodetic measurement is converted to annual
  change
• ratio ppm.
• Early warning should be issued if the change
  in XY, XZ
• or YZ plane is gt 3ppm
• I stage warning 4 - 9 ppm
• II stage warning 10 ppm
• III stage warning gt10 ppm
• ve sign indicates tension - ve sign indicates
  compression

3-6 m
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• 4) Differential SAR interferrometry
• Differential Interferrometry
• - Provides relative measurement, few cm or
  even less
• movements in vertical direction.
• Small elevation changes caused by the buckling
  of the
• earths surface prior to EQ can be measured.
  
• For monitoring pre, co post seismic Earths
  Crust
• Dynamic Grid 4 satellites or more needed.
• NASA 7 d repeat L- band InSAR 4 satellites
  with 10 m
• resolution, okay.
• Long-term measurement of interseismic strain
• accumulation to lt1 mm/yr resolution

1-2 m
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• 5) Thermal InfraRed
• A huge isolated temperature increasing area
  appears far
• from Epicenter before EQ 2-6 deg C wrt
  peripherals.
• The thermal spectral resolution of 0.12-0.5 deg
  C is high
• enough for EQ precursor detection.
• Increase of Brightness values Temperature
  Temperature
• Increasing Area IBvTTIA direct function
  of magnitude.
• IBvT TIA
• 1-3 L sq. km Ms. 5.
• 4-7 L sq. km Ms gt 6.
• gt 7 L sq. km Ms. 7.

1d to2 m
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• 6) Animal abnormal Jump frequency budgerigars
• Budgerigars is a kind Parrot which is used
  for EQ
• precursor detection.
• 600-700 Vs gt2000 jumps p/d
• No Information on direction,epicenter,Mag,t
  

7-13 d
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• 7) Gravity method
• In deformation zone, on earths surface
  subjected to
• displacement or movement of the earths
  gravity center.
• Given, at least 3 measuring points of earths
  gravity force,
• triangulation procedure allows locating the
  epicenter

5 6 d
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• 8) Crustal stress measurement
• Before EQ crustal strain pulse signals.
• Relative change of crustal stress reflects
  seismicity,
• Hence crustal stress value is adopted instead
  of
• absolute value.
• Measured by a crustal stress transducer, the
  strain in 3
• directions on a level underground.
• Principal strain (crustal stress crustal
  strain elastic
• modulus )
• Its direction is towards epicenter.

1 3 d
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• 9) Infrasound Waves ISW
• Abnormal Infrasonic wave signals has Ultra low
  frequency
• (lt1 Hz), longitudinal vibrations in the air,
  propagate very
• long distances, without significant attenuation
  and distortion.
• ISWs released from fault fractures rock
  destruction prior
• to large EQs at epicenter.
• Infrasonic sound measured in a star topology
  with
• optimum array configuration using
• low frequency microphone or by
• high frequency barometer sensors.
• A high, 1.250 mV 10Pa sonic P
• EQ Ms gt7-7.5
• EQs Precursors 0.004-0.1 Hz.

1-9 d
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• 10) Geoelectric pulses
• Normal pulse is smoothly round curve, but
  before EQ
• abnormal.
• Amplitude of the abnormal signal determines
• the magnitude.
• Procedures are same as of ISW

1 9 d
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Chineese Predictions and Error Range Year
T- Err Mag-Err Loc-Err 1996 Nil
Nil Nil 1996 Nil
Nil Nil 1996 39d,late Ms 0.1
Nil 1997 Nil-13hr Ms 0.2 Nil 2000 Nil Ms
0.1 Nil 2001 Nil Nil
0-0.1deg 2002 Nil Ms 0.3 Nil 2002 Nil Ni
l Nil 2003 2-4 d Ms 0.5 125km, Off
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• Precursors Prediction 1
• Imminent EQs
• Accomplishing envisaged endeavor
• Integrated Cardinal Strategy.
• Comprehensive Data Integration, then
  Synthesize.
• Multi disciplinary, component, Poly
  Dimensional
• data encompassing multiple of
  multiplicative complexities,
• Use of multiplicative additive divisive
  subtractive
• methodologies etc.
• Comprehensive Integration to differentiate the
  multi data set
• precursors reliable response more
  information than can be
• derived from single data set, techniques more
  supportive,
• more confident
• Integration of multiple data sets and composite
  digital image
• generation.

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• Computerized image processing involving data
  2
• and feature extraction techniques
  geometrical, structural,
• spectral, statistical with 2 or more, Image
  data fusion, based
• on pixel, feature, decision pixel,
  algorithm should be in line
• with scientific doctrine, a continuous
  processes to refine and
• improve the visual image exploitation by
  human image
• interpreters.
• Decisions levels on fusion techniques are
  knowledge logical,
• syntactical, contextual and identity
  statistical inferences based
• global seismic policy, Public education,
  seismic proof ts safe
• planning and constructions, public early
  warning reach out
• communications, real time emergency services
  disaster relief and
• management.
• Global Team Effort.
• Integrated Global Strategy.

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• 
  3
• India should participate and with innovative
  contribution patent
• Shimla Summer Seismic Capital
• EQ Physics Engineering EQ Technology
• Study Physics, Geophysics, Engineering
  Physics, Astrophysics,
• Astro-mechanics, Remote
  Sensing..
• NASA
• Global Earthquake Satellite System GESS
• France Dec 2004
• DEMETER Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions
  
• Transmitted from
  Earthquake Regions
• Microsatellite series.

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• The scientific purpose of the mission is to
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• Study the ionospheric disturbances related to
  seismic activity,
• Study the ionospheric disturbances related to
  human activity,
• Study the pre- and post-seismic effects in the
  ionosphere,
• Contribute to understand the mechanisms
  generating those
• disturbances,
• Give global information on the Earth's
  electromagnetic
• environment at the satellite altitude.
• Pre, Co Postseismic study.
• Seismic Audit construction, codes, education
  on precursors.
• Kangra EQ 1905 mag gt8 one day before all
  Zoo animals
• highly disturbed recorded
• Indian Plate is going below Erasian plate
  raising Himalayas
• Tibetan plateau

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Modeling

• Data should speak not converse
• Mathematics
• Precursors Prediction
• Geology process holds the key
• Prediction by single method is not advisable
• Comprehensive integrated strategy.
• Mathematics does not obey nature's laws and
• nature is not governed by mathematics

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• SUMMATION
• The Principle Prediction Precursor Techniques
  consists of
• a three-tire composite system In advance
• I. Long range Macro
• Astronomical years before
• Electrical resistivity variations in seismically
  active areas
• Geomagnetic field change 6-8 months
• GPS 3- 6 months
• II. Medium range Meso
• Radar 1-2 months
• Thermal IR 1 day2 months
• Electrical resistivity variations alerted and
  active 3 4 months
• Tidal Generation Forces Resonance 15 days 2
  months

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• III. Short range Micro
• Budgerigars a kind of parrot Jump frequency
  7-13 days
• Gravity 5 6 days
• Infrasound 1-9 days
• Geoelectrical pulse 2-9 days
• Crustral strain 1-3 days
• Geomagnetic field change affects
  telecommunications
• 50-100 minutes to few hours and months

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Cost Benefit Analysis.

• High Damage Vs low EPR RD.
• RD investment is very low.
• India too can afford If there is A Will,
  Capability, Dedication
• 4 years robust globally predictive RD and
  implementation
• 
  3.5L Rs 1.5 Cr
  
• Global Earthquake Satellite System GESS
• 20 years InSAR 36hr Vs 35d 400-500 m
• 5 yrs RD, 15 yrs mission operation
  Rs. 1700 to 1800 Cr
• Geosynchronous Satellite System
  (Rs. 90 Cr/yr)
• at present not within the range, too
  expensive
• First satellite 5 yr RD, 15 mission operation
  1-2 b.
• 10 Satellite constellation 8-10 b.
• world wide Infrasound system cheap. 1L, Rs. 50
  L.
• Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty CNTBT
• 60 infrasound stations net work, only maintenance.

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DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
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• Initially, precursors identification routine
  Long and Medium
• range predictive techniques, irrespective of
  areas are seismic or
• aseismic, followed by Short range on alert
  in seismic or aseismic
• narrowing down the imminent event.
• None may follow logical sequence.
• Likelihood that medium and short range could
  be in sequence,
• long range may or may not be an indicator.
• On alert Short-Range Tools must be in place
  and vigilant in the
• long and/or medium ranges in seismic or
  aseismic-alerted in the
• regions for continuous surveillance and
  monitoring.

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• Our need of the
  hour is
• an automated on line surveillance system
• To predict Imminent Earthquakes Precursors
  Detection
• At least 3 days before, should possibly be
  accomplished.
• Constituting an Earthquake Research Authority
• ERA act as a nodal agency to coordinate with
  recently
• forming National Disaster Management Authority
  NDMA.
• Researchers as and when they notice imminence of
  an event,
• should report to the ERA only, who intern can
  deal with the
• situation as deemed fit confidentially,
  including conveying
• to the public at an appropriate time, so that
  panic situation
• is avoided.

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• The NDMA should ensure that State District
  Level
• S,DDMAs be in place.
• Researchers as and when they identify long
  range indicators in an
• area, it should be confidentially be informed
  to the ERA, to be
• passed on to N,SDMAs.
• When the medium range precursors are identified
  in the same
• area, then alert should be passed on to all
  the three DMAs
• through ERA to NDMA.
• Finally, when the event is identified in the
  short range in the same
• area, then ERA to coordinate with all the
  three DMAs to get not
• only be alerted, but also should be in a
  position to convey to the
• area people concern about the imminent
  event, from time to time,
• with the latest updates and to get prepared
  to face the situation
• Without any panic, a proper communication
  channel is to be
• devised. Strict highest level of
  confidentiality should be maintained

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Medical Precurssors

• Abnormal cell growth precursor
• Positron Emission Tomography
• computerized tomography PET-CT
• Color shades chemical levels of cell
  activity.
• Exact location of abnormal cell activity
• invisible on CT.
• A complimentary, not competing image
  modalities

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My Medical Forecast

• Signal Processing Doctrine principles are same
  in any scientific
• pursuit, including interpretation
• Cardiac ECG or
• EQs seismogram
• In fact signal processing technique is adopted
  in
• medical applications
• Automatic processing of the foetal MCG, Cardiac
  
• diseases estimate
• A precursor sensor like a wristwatch on human
  body to
• monitor on selected intervals Vital organs
  functioning and
• connected to a centralized computerized
  Database, gives
• warning signals replacing the existing
  periodical preventive
• medical checkups, including scans, blood
  tests etc.

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• SUGGESTIONS
• EPR should be taken up by Academic,
  Professional and
• Research Institutes with collaborative
  projects with
• centres where such know-how exists.
• Global coordinated team effort deeper insight
  with tenacity.
• A false alarm can cause panic, hence special
• care is needed.
• Cardinal aim is narrowing down the event
  predictive
• process by employing the Prediction Precursor
  
• Techniques of a three-tire system
• 1) Macro 2) Meso 3) Micro levels
• With the help of Space and Ground-borne systems

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• SUGGESTIONS
• Symptomatic approach Vs Scientific doctrine
• Supernatural science needs to be pursued,
  parallelly
• United Nations Universitys Associated
  Institutions
• Research Centers of Global Scientific
  Excellence in various
• countries
• Student participation in Masters and Doctoral
  programs
• UN, World Human Rights Commission and NGOs
  contribution

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Thank you for your kind attention
Any Questions.???? Contact address M.V.Ramanam
urthy68-1-3/1, Netaji Street, Ashok
Nagar,Kakinada - 533 003,Dist. East Godavari,
Andhra Pradesh. India. Ph 0884 - 2371649.Email
rmy_pranav_at_sancharnet.in