UNFCCC Workshop on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries 30080192006, Rome,

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UNFCCCWorkshop on Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation in Developing Countries30/08-01/9/2
006, Rome, Italy

• Overview of scientific, socio-economic, technical
  and methodological issues

Sandra Brown sbrown_at_winrock.org
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Much progress in the last 10 years.

• Remote sensing data at various scales readily
  available and methods and tools have been
  developed and for estimating and monitoring
  carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and
  degradation
• Change in land cover for most tropical regions
  can be measured from space with confidence, but
  measuring forest degradation from satellites is
  more technically challenging
• Peer reviewed tools and methods available using
  field measurements to estimate carbon stocks in
  forests with high confidence.
• Methods for estimating net and gross emissions
  from deforestation/degradation are available in
  existing IPCC reports (1996, 2003, 2006)

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Definitions
Forest Definition (annex to decision 16/CMP.1 of
Kyoto Protocol) Minimum forest area 0.05 1
ha Minimum tree height 2 5 m Minimum crown
cover 10 30
Degradation (from IPCC) Direct, human-induced,
long-term loss persisting for X years or more
or at least Y of forest carbon stocks since time
T not qualifying as deforestation
Deforestation Direct, human-induced conversion
of forested land to non-forested land
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Application of definitions
Crown cover
10
80
30
0
Carbon stocks in t C/ha
40
12
1
120
Deforestation ?C 80
30
Devegetation
Degradation
Deforestation ?C 108
10
Degradation
Devegetation
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Drivers of deforestation and degradation as
reported in national communications to the UNFCCC
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Steps involved in a C monitoring system for
deforestation
DeFries et al. 2006.
Forest inventories In-situ/plot
data-projects Targeted remote surveyse.g. Lidar
and aerial imagery FAO statistics IPCC-GPG / AFOLU
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Monitoring change in forest cover

• Remote sensing data available for many land cover
  changes and many developing countries since 1990s
  and deforestation can be measured from space with
  confidence
• Not all areas covered cloud cover issues for
  some key tropical countries
• Identification of secondary forestsnot easy
• Identification of degraded forests developing
• Identification of selectively logged forest
  developing
• Development of new technology and new analytical
  methods in RS field progressing for addressing
  these challenges and likely to be available for
  future monitoring

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Monitoring carbon stocks

• Need to match estimates of carbon stocks with
  changes in land cover to improve accuracy and
  precision of emission estimates
• Current operational optical satellites cannot
  remotely sense biomass carbon
• Optical satellites have difficulty in
  distinguishing secondary from mature forests, yet
  carbon stocks can differ greatly because of
  effects of age and ecological zone

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How are forest biomass C stocks in the tropics
presently assessed?

• Robust tools exist for converting traditional,
  statistically designed forest inventory data to
  carbon stocks in trees use defaults for other
  pools (IPCC GPG Ch. 3 FAO)
• Majority of tropical countries have no recent
  national forest inventories
• Research plots generally insufficient as not
  from population of interest and designed for
  other purposes

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How to measure carbon stocks ?

• Traditional inventory approach
• Can be done in smaller countries and at project
  scale
• Requires large resources at national level
• Cost-prohibitive for large countries and not
  practical
• Need remote means that are
• Cost-effective
• Low uncertainty (high precision)
• Transparent and repeatable
• Acceptable to policy makers

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Future trends in measuring and monitoring carbon
stocks for DD

• Build on existing techniquesregular
  inventories done by sampling
• Need remote means
• Not necessary for wall-to-wall mapping but
  statistical sampling approach
• New remote technology developing
• Lidar already shown to measure changes in forest
  structure height is a good indicator of forest
  biomass change
• High resolution digital imagery combined with new
  field data on key metrics of forest carbon-crown
  area and tree height

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Conclusions

• Analysis of airborne or satellite remotely sensed
  data is the only practical approach to measure
  changes in DD at national and international
  scales.
• Since the early 1990s, tools and methods exist to
  measure changes in forest area from space with
  confidence.
• Measuring forest degradation from satellites is
  more technically challenging but methods are
  becoming available.
• There are no accepted standard practices for
  measuring forest carbon stocks using RS data
  instead they are estimated from traditional
  forest inventories or from default data.
• Investments are required to expand inventories of
  forest carbon stocks so that reliable carbon
  estimates can be applied to deforested and
  degraded areas interpreted from RS imagery.
• New technologies and approaches are developing
  for monitoring changes in carbon stocks with
  confidence using a combination of satellite and
  airborne imagery.

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Conclusions (cont.)

• Methods for estimating net and gross emissions
  from areas with measurable DD are available in
  existing IPCC 1996 GHG inventory methods, the
  2003 GPG-LULUCF and the pending IPCC AFOLU.
• Reliable and transparent results from application
  of these methods are hampered by capacity,
  availability, and access to data on both change
  in forest cover and, more critically, by change
  in carbon stocks
• NEXT STEPS
• Development of standard protocols for
  interpreting and analyzing remote sensing data at
  various scales, including which data to collect
  and use, how to analyze the data, and acceptable
  levels of accuracy to attain, etc (akin to GPG
  for C stocks for LULUCF)
• Development of standard protocols for estimating
  carbon stocks of forests undergoing change at
  national scales, building on existing methods
  given in IPCC reports, and decisions on
  acceptable levels of accuracy and precision to
  attain.