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Title: Fundamentals of Epidemiology and Outbreak Investigations


1
Fundamentals of Epidemiology andOutbreak
Investigations
Version 2 February 2006
2
Fundamentals of Epidemiology andOutbreak
Investigations
  • Developed by
  • Connecticut Partnership for Public Health
    Workforce Development
  • Yale University School of Public Health
  • Adapted for distribution by
  • Yale Center for Public Health Preparedness

3
Fundamentals of Epidemiology andOutbreak
Investigations
  • Course content source
  • US Department of Health and Human Services,
    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
  • http//www.cdc.gov/excite/index.htm

4
Fundamentals of Epidemiology andOutbreak
Investigations
  • Funded by
  • Connecticut Department of Public Health
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Public
    Health Preparedness and Response for Bioterrorism
    Cooperative Agreement
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Center
    for Public Health Preparedness Cooperative
    Agreement
  • New England Alliance for Public Health Workforce
    Development Health Resources and Services
    Administration Grant No. D20HP00003

5
Training Schedule
  • Welcome and Housekeeping Items
  • Pre-Test
  • Purpose and Learning Objectives
  • Lecture
  • Epidemiology Fundamentals
  • Outbreak Investigations
  • Group Exercise
  • Post-Test

6
Purpose of Training
  • To provide a quick refresher on
  • Basic epidemiology
  • Steps in outbreak investigations

7
Learning Objectives
  • At the end of todays session, you will be able
    to
  • Describe how the sanitarian can work with the
    epidemiologist and other team members in outbreak
    investigations
  • List the reasons for and steps in an outbreak
    investigation
  • Describe and use some of the basic tools of field
    epidemiology

8
Role of Non-Epidemiologists in Outbreak
Investigations
  • Assure outbreak comes to attention ASAP of those
    with experience and authority to investigate.
  • Report outbreaks to the State DPH.
  • Joint investigations by the LHD and DPH.
  • Provide assistance, as needed, depending on
    expertise.
  • Sanitarians can help to develop questionnaires,
    conduct environmental investigation.
  • Surge capacity needed to answer phones/ public
    inquiry conduct interviews for analytic studies

9
Roles in Foodborne Outbreak Investigations
Graphic developed by Terry Rabatsky-Ehr, Regional
Epidemiologist, CT DPH
10
Fundamentals of Epidemiology andOutbreak
Investigations
  • What is Epidemiology?
  • Introduction to the Categories of Epidemiology
    and Types of Epidemiological Studies
  • Overview of the Disease Transmission Cycle
  • Outbreak Investigations Steps and Tools
  • But first
  • Consider the following three incidents and ask
    What does public health do now?

11
Incident 1
  • While reviewing surveillance data, a nurse noted
    three cases in a single month of hepatitis B
  • Three patients did not seem to have the usual
    risk factors
  • All three received injections at the same health
    care facility
  • Is this a coincidence?
  • Did these three cases occur by chance?
  • Is there a link?

12
Incident 2
  • Nurse reported two cases of severe respiratory
    illness, one of which had been fatal
  • Both people had attended the annual American
    Legion Convention
  • Between July 26 and August 2, 18 conventioneers
    had died
  • Led to the discovery of the gram-negative
    pathogen, Legionnella pneumophila

Fluorescent microscopy of Legionella pneumophilia
13
Incident 3
  • Physician reports three patients with a marked
    increase in their white blood cell count and
    severe muscle pain
  • All had taken oral preparations of L-tryptophan
  • New syndrome identified EMS
  • Problem traced to a contaminant introduced in the
    production process at a single facility

14
Summary
  • What do these three incidents have in common?
  • They were unexpected.
  • They demanded a response.
  • The investigators had to go out into the field to
    solve the problem.
  • They illustrate some of the key reasons for
    needing applied, or field, epidemiology

15
I. What is Epidemiology?
  • The study of the distribution and determinants
    of health-related states in specified
    populations, and the application of this study to
    control health problems."
  • The following key words will be defined
  • - Study - Distribution
  • - Determinants - Health-related states
  • - Population

16
Examination of Key Words
  • Study Epidemiology is a quantitative discipline
    based on statistics and research methodologies.
  • It is the basic science of public health.
  • Distribution Epidemiology characterizes disease
    based on person, place and time.
  • Determinants Epidemiology looks for causes or
    factors associated with an increased risk of
    disease.

17
Examination of Key Words
  • Health-related states Epidemiology applies to
    the whole spectrum of health-related events
  • Chronic disease, environmental problems,
    behavioral problems, injuries, and infectious
    disease
  • Populations Epidemiology deals with groups of
    people rather than with individual patients

18
Role of Epidemiology
  • Epidemiology is more than just an analytical
    tool for studying diseases and their
    determinants.
  • Epidemiologic data
  • Steers public health decision making
  • Aids in developing and evaluating interventions
    to control and prevent health problems
  • Use of epidemiological data to steer decision
    making to control and prevent health problems Is
    the primary function of applied, or field,
    epidemiology

19
Comparison Between Healthcare and Public Health
Practice
  • Public Health
  • Focus population
  • Data from surveillance or descriptive studies
  • Generate hypothesis
  • Analytical studies
  • Community intervention
  • Healthcare
  • Focus one person
  • Data from medical history
  • Make differential diagnosis
  • Diagnostic studies
  • Medical treatment

20
What Do Epidemiologists Do?
  • Count cases of disease or injury
  • Define the affected population
  • Compute rates of disease or injury in that
    population
  • Compare rates with those found in other
    populations
  • Make inferences regarding patterns of disease
  • Determine whether a problem exists

21
II. Types of Epidemiological Studies
  • Experimental Epidemiologist controls exposure of
    subjects to an intervention and observes the
    outcome
  • Observational Epidemiologist observes exposure
    and outcome without controlling either
  • Descriptive Epidemiologist collects information
    to characterize and summarize health event
  • Analytical Epidemiologist compares groups to
    identify risk factors

22
Types of Epidemiology
  • Descriptive epidemiology is concerned with
  • Person (who)
  • Place (where)
  • Time (when)
  • Analytical epidemiology uses the information
    gathered during the descriptive process to answer
  • How
  • Why

23
Descriptive Studies Deaths Associated with
Tractor Injuries by Month of Death, Georgia
1971-1981
  • What might this data mean?

24
Descriptive StudiesDeaths Associated with
Tractor Injuries by Time of Day
  • What might this data mean?

25
Descriptive StudiesDeaths Associated with
Tractor Injuries by Place
26
Descriptive StudiesDeaths Associated with
Tractor Injuries by Age
  • What might this data mean?

27
Analytic Studies 1 Cross-sectional study
  • Basically a survey that takes a snapshot of the
    population.
  • Steps
  • Define the population to be studied
  • Collect information from members of population on
    disease and exposure
  • Examine the relationship between disease and
    exposure

28
Analytic Studies 2 Cohort study
  • Prospective study - follows populations of people
    over time
  • Steps
  • Select populations that were and were not exposed
    to a hypothesized risk factor
  • Follow populations for occurrence of disease
  • Compare disease occurrence in those with and
    without exposure at beginning

29
Analytic Studies 3 Case-Control Study
  • Retrospective study Epidemiologists work
    backward from the case
  • Steps
  • Select subjects with disease (case) and without
    disease (control)
  • Collect information on hypothesized risk factors
  • Compare risk factors in cases and controls

30
Limit of Analytical Studies
  • Analytic studies enable us to quantify
    (mathematically calculate) the relationship
    between an exposure and a health outcome
  • However, a mathematical relationship between an
    effect and health outcome is not enough to
    establish causation.

31
Cause-and-Effect Relationship
  • In general, five criteria must be met to
    establish a cause-and-effect relationship
  • Strength of Association clear mathematical
    relationship
  • Consistency observation must be repeatable
  • Temporality cause must precede effect
  • Plausibility must make sense biologically
  • Biological Gradient must be dose-response
    relationship

32
III. Disease Transmission
  • Key terms defined
  • Epidemic is the occurrence of more cases than
    would normally be expected in a specific place or
    group over a given period of time
  • Outbreak is basically the same thing
  • Cluster is a group of cases that may or may not
    represent a greater than expected rate
  • Endemic is a persistent level of occurrence of a
    disease
  • Pandemic is a very widespread, often global
    epidemic

33
Disease Transmission
  • For an outbreak, or epidemic, to occur, the basic
    elements of disease causation and an adequate
    chain of transmission must be present.
  • Disease occurs when an outside agent capable of
    causing the disease meets a host that is
    vulnerable to the agent in an environment that
    allows the agent and host to interact.
  • Then, given a chain of transmission from one host
    to another and a suitable mode of spread, an
    outbreak can develop.

34
Key Terms Defined Agent
  • Agent is the entity necessary to cause disease in
    a susceptible host
  • An agent can be biological, physical, chemical,
    or nutritional
  • Agents have important characteristics
  • Infectivity capacity to cause infection in host
  • Pathogenicity capacity to cause disease in host
  • Virulence severity of disease that agent causes

35
Key Terms Defined Host
  • Host is the person that may be acted upon by the
    agent
  • Status of the host is classified as
  • susceptible to the agent
  • immune to the agent
  • infected by the agent
  • Hosts response to exposure can show
  • no effect
  • manifest subclinical disease
  • atypical symptoms
  • straightforward illness
  • severe illness

36
Key Terms Defined Environment
  • Environment conditions or influences that are
    not part of either the agent or the host, but
    that influence their interaction
  • Factors can include
  • physical
  • climatologic
  • biologic
  • social
  • economic conditions

37
Disease Transmission
  • Agent, host, and environment alone are not
    sufficient to cause an epidemic
  • An adequate chain of transmission must be present
  • A chain of transmission requires the following
    elements
  • a source of the agent
  • a portal of exit from the source
  • a mode of transmission
  • and a portal of entry into the susceptible person

38
Transmission Elements Defined
  • Source of infection may be a human, an animal or
    the environment
  • Portal of exit is a pathway by which the agent
    can leave the source
  • Mode of transmission is the means of carrying
    agent to the host
  • Portal of entry is the pathway that gives the
    agent access to tissue where it can multiply or
    act

39
Modes of transmission
  • Direct
  • Direct contact
  • Droplet nuclei
  • Indirect
  • Airborne
  • Vehicleborne
  • Vectorborne
  • Mechanical
  • Biologic

40
Field Epidemiology
  • Field epidemiology is practice or application of
    epidemiology to control and prevent health
    problems
  • Act when problem is acute and unexpected and when
    quick action is required
  • High levels of community concern
  • Involvement of the press
  • Political pressure

41
Field Epidemiology
  • Field investigations are action oriented, with
    the main goal being to solve a pressing public
    health problem
  • There is a need to institute the controls
    necessary to safeguard health as soon as possible
  • Challenges to investigators
  • limited control over the situation
  • little time for planning a study
  • limited date sources and laboratory samples
  • Must do best science possible under the
    circumstances

42
IV. Outbreak InvestigationsSteps and Tools
43
Challenges in Outbreak Investigations
  • Cause, source may not be known
  • Large numbers of people may be affected
  • Residents fear more illness
  • Possible hostility or defensiveness if an
    individual, product or company is accused of
    being the source.
  • Epidemiological team must remain calm,
    professional and scientifically objective

44
Uncovering Outbreaks
  • Call from a doctor, healthcare provider, citizen
  • Routine analysis of public health surveillance
    data
  • Data on health which are systematically
    collected, analyzed, interpreted, and
    disseminated.
  • Data analysis shows an increase over normal
    background level

45
Why Investigate Outbreaks?
  • Control and prevention
  • Severity and risk to others
  • Research opportunities
  • Training opportunities
  • Program considerations
  • Public, political, or legal concerns

46
Control and Prevention
  • Control the outbreak at hand and prevent future
    outbreaks
  • Assess its extent and the characteristics of the
    population at risk
  • Design measures to prevent additional cases
  • Investigate further to identify its source and
    use that information to develop measures that
    will prevent future outbreaks.
  • Strike a balance between instituting control
    measures and conducting further investigation.

47
Severity and Risk to Others
  • It is urgent to investigate an outbreak when the
    disease is severe and could affect more people

48
Research Opportunities
  • Each outbreak offers a unique opportunity to
    study the natural history of the disease in
    questionincluding the agent, mode of
    transmission, and incubation period.
  • Epidemiologists can learn more about the impact
    of control measures and the usefulness of new
    epidemiological and laboratory techniques.

49
Training Opportunities
  • Investigative skills improve with practice and
    experience.
  • Pairing a seasoned epidemiologist with an
    epidemiologist-in-training has value

50
Program Considerations
  • Investigating an outbreak of a disease targeted
    by public health authorities for prevention and
    control may highlight
  • Populations at risk that have been overlooked
  • Failures in the programs intervention strategy
  • Changes in the agent causing the disease
  • Events beyond the scope of the program

51
Public, Political, or Legal Considerations
  • Public, political, or legal concerns sometimes
    override scientific concerns in the decision to
    conduct an investigation.
  • Many health departments have learned that it is
    essential to be "responsibly responsive" to
    public concerns

52
10 Steps in an Outbreak Investigation
  • 1 Prepare for field work
  • 2 Establish the existence of an outbreak
  • 3 Verify the diagnosis
  • 4 Define and identify cases
  • 5 Describe and orient the data in terms of
    time, place, and person
  • 6 Develop hypotheses
  • 7 Evaluate hypotheses
  • 8 Refine hypotheses and carry out additional
    studies
  • 9 Implementing control and prevention measures
  • 10 Communicate findings

53
Step 1. Prepare for Field Work
  • Research the disease and gather supplies and
    equipment
  • Make necessary administrative and personal
    arrangements for such things as travel, etc.
  • Consultations with all parties to determine their
    role in the investigation and who local contacts
    are

54
Step 2. Establish Existence of an Outbreak
  • Is a suspected outbreak a real outbreak?
  • Some are true outbreaks with common cause
  • Some are unrelated cases of the same disease
  • Others are unrelated cases of similar, but
    unrelated, diseases
  • To determine if an outbreak exists (i.e., whether
    the observed number of cases exceeds the expected
    number), first the expected number of cases for
    the area in the given time frame must be
    determined.

55
Step 2. Establish Existence of an Outbreak
  • Compare current cases with previous occurrences
  • Check health department records
  • Consult local data sources
  • Make estimates from neighboring states or
    national data

56
Step 2. Establish Existence of an Outbreak
  • If current number of reported cases exceeds
    expected number, further investigation is needed
  • Many factors affect changes in total number of
    cases reported
  • Change in reporting procedures or case definition
  • Increased local interest or public awareness
  • Improved diagnostic procedures
  • Seasonal population changes

57
Step 3. Verify the Diagnosis
  • Epidemiologists identify as accurately as
    possible the nature of the disease.
  • First, to ensure the problem has been properly
    diagnosed and that it really is what it is
    reported to be.
  • Second, for outbreaks involving infectious or
    toxic-chemical agents, to be certain that the
    increase in diagnosed cases is not the result of
    a mistake in the laboratory.

58
Step 3. Verify the Diagnosis
  • Review clinical findings and laboratory results
    for people affected
  • Verify laboratory findings
  • Prepare for any specialized laboratory work
  • Visit and interview several people who became ill

59
Step 4. Define and Identify Cases
  • Epidemiologists establish a case definition a
    standard set of criteria for deciding whether a
    person should be classified as having the disease
    or condition under study.
  • Usually includes components
  • Clinical information about the disease 
  • Characteristics about the people who are affected
  • Information about the location or place
  • A specification of time during which the outbreak
    occurred.

60
Step 4. Define and Identify Cases
  • Criteria are be based on objective measures that
    are consistently applied without bias to all
    people included in the investigation
  • Case definitions are broad enough to include most
    actual cases while avoiding false-positive
    cases (when the case definition is met, but the
    person does not have the disease).

61
Step 4. Define and Identify Cases
  • Investigators often classify cases as one of the
    following
  • Confirmed usually has laboratory verification
  • Probable usually has clinical features without
    lab verification
  • Possible usually has fewer of typical clinical
    features

62
Step 4. Define and Identify Cases
  • When an outbreak is first recognized the
    epidemiologist must cast the net wide to
    identify cases
  • Possible sources of cases
  • Health care facilities
  • Public alert
  • Survey of population, particularly if outbreak
    occurs in restricted population
  • Case patient referral

63
Step 4. Define and Identify Cases
  • The following information is collected
  • Identifying information
  • Demographic information
  • Details to characterize population at risk
  • Clinical information
  • Allows the creation of a epidemic curve and a
    description of the spectrum of illness
  • Risk factor information
  • Helps to tailor investigation to the specific
    disease in question

64
Case Report Form
  • This information is entered on a case report
    form.
  • CT DPH has a number of different case report
    forms, depending on the nature of the outbreak

Sample report form from the DPH Food Protection
Program
65
Line Listing
  • Next, selected critical items are abstracted into
    a table called a line listing
  • Each column represents an important variable,
    such as age and sex
  • Each row represents a different case, by number
  • This simple format allows the investigator to
    scan key information on every case and update it
    easily

66
Example of a Line Listing
67
Step 5. Describe and Orient the Data
  • Characterize the outbreak by time, place, and
    person (descriptive epidemiology)
  • Benefits
  • Allows you to become familiar with the data,
    especially what is and is not reliable
  • Provides a comprehensive description of the
    outbreak
  • Allows you to develop a causal hypothesis based
    on what is known about the disease

68
Characterizing By Time Epidemic Curve
  • Epidemic curve or epi curve a graph of the
    number of cases by their date of onset.
  • Simple visual display of outbreaks magnitude and
    time trend.
  • Shows course of epidemic
  • May enable estimation of probable time period of
    exposure
  • May enable inferences to be drawn about the
    epidemic pattern

69
Characterizing By Time Epidemic Curve
  • How to draw an epidemic curve
  • Know the time of onset for each person
  • Number of cases is plotted on y-axis
  • Time is plotted on the x-axis
  • The unit of time is based on incubation period
    and length of time over which cases are
    distributed. Select a unit that is one-fourth to
    one-third as long as the incubation period.
  • Show the pre- and post-epidemic period to
    illustrate the activity during those periods

70
Example 1 Epidemic Curve
  • Insert EPI Curve

71
Example 2 Epidemic Curve
72
Epidemic Curve Interpreting the Shape
  • Point source epidemic
  • Shape a steep up slope, a peak and a gradual
    down-slope
  • Interpretation - people are exposed to the same
    source over a relatively brief period
  • Continuous common source epidemic
  • Shape - curve will have a plateau instead of a
    peak
  • Interpretation - people are exposed to the same
    source over an extended period
  • Propagated epidemic
  • Shape - a series of progressively taller peaks
  • Interpretation - person-to-person spread

73
Example 1 Epidemic Curve
  • Insert EPI Curve

74
Example 2 Epidemic Curve
75
Characterizing By Time Epidemic Curve
  • Outliers cases that stand apart
  • Early case may represent
  • a background (unrelated) case
  • source of epidemic (index case)
  • an early exposure
  • Late cases may be
  • unrelated
  • have long incubation periods
  • indicate later exposure
  • secondary cases

76
Example 2 Epidemic Curve
77
Characterizing By Place Spot Map
  • Assessment of an outbreak by place provides
    information on the geographic extent of a problem
  • A spot map of cases in a community may show
    clusters or patterns that reflect water supplies,
    wind currents, or proximity to a restaurant or
    grocery store.

John Snow and Broad Street Pump map
78
Characterizing By Place Spot Map
  • If the size of the overall population varies
    between the areas under comparison, a spot map,
    because it shows numbers of cases, can be
    misleading. This is a weakness of spot maps.
  • Discuss the data in the spot map on the right.
    What are some possible interpretations?

Dead crow sightings, 2000 (CT DPH Mosquito
Management Program 2000 Annual Report)
79
(No Transcript)
80
Characterizing By Place
  • To compensate, maps can show the proportion of
    people affected in each area
  • This also represents the rate of disease or, in
    the investigation of an outbreak, the "attack
    rate"

Connecticut Epidemiologist, July 2001
81
Characterizing By Person
  • Determine the populations at risk by
    characterizing the outbreak by person
  • Define populations by
  • Personal characteristics (Examples age, race,
    sex, or medical status)
  • Exposures (Examples occupation, leisure
    activities, use of medications, tobacco, drugs)
  • Age and sex are usually assessed first, because
    they are often the characteristics most strongly
    related to exposure and to the risk of disease.

82
Step 5. Describe and Orient the Data in Terms of
Time, Place, Person
  • Summarize
  • After characterizing an outbreak by time, place,
    and person (descriptive epidemiology),
    epidemiologists need to summarize what they know
    to see whether their initial hypotheses are on
    track.
  • New hypotheses may need to be developed to
    explain the outbreak.

83
Step 6. Develop Hypotheses
  • Hypotheses may be based on
  • Interviews with affected people
  • Consultation with health officials in community
  • Descriptive epidemiology - person, place and time
  • It should incorporate the known characteristics
    of the agent
  • It should be testable.

84
Step 7. Evaluate Hypotheses
  • Two approaches
  • Compare hypotheses with the established facts.
  • This method is used when the evidence is so
    strong that the hypothesis does not need to be
    tested
  • Use analytic epidemiology to test hypotheses by
    using a comparison group to quantify
    relationships between various exposures and the
    disease.

85
Step 7. Evaluate Hypotheses Analytic Studies
  • There are two types of analytic studies
  • Cohort Studies compare groups of people who
    have been exposed to suspected risk factors with
    groups who have not been exposed.
  • Case-Control Studies compare people with a
    disease (case-patients) with a group of people
    without the disease (controls).

86
Study Type Cohort Studies
  • Best for analyzing an outbreak in a small
    well-defined population
  • Example gastroenteritis among people who
    attended a wedding
  • Ask each attendee the same set of questions about
    potential exposures
  • In cohort studies, an attack rate can be
    calculated for people who ate a particular item
    (were exposed) and an attack rate for those who
    did not eat that item (were not exposed).

87
Attack Rates
  • For the exposed group, the attack rate equals
    the number of people who ate item and became ill
    divided by () the total number of people who ate
    that item.

88
Attack Rates
  • For the not exposed group, the attack rate
    equals the number of people who did not eat item
    but still became ill divided by () the total
    number of people who did not eat that item.

89
Relative Risk
  • To identify source of outbreak, look for
  • High attack rate among those exposed and
  • Low attack rate among those not exposed and
  • In addition
  • Most of the people who became ill should have
    consumed the item
  • Calculate the relative risk mathematical
    association between exposure and illness for each
    food and beverage

90
Relative Risk
  • Relative risk is calculated by dividing () the
    attack rate for people who were exposed to the
    item by the attack rate for those who were not
    exposed.

91
Attack Rate Table 1
92
Example Attack Rates
  • Food
  • Baked Ham
  • Mashed potatoes
  • Spinach
  • Cabbage salad
  • Milk
  • Ice Cream (Van)
  • Ice Cream (Choc)
  • Fruit salad
  • Exposed Group
  • 29/46 63
  • 23/37 62
  • 26/43 60
  • 18/28 64
  • 2/4 50
  • 43/54 80
  • 25/47 53
  • 4/6 67

93
Example Attack Rates
  • Food
  • Baked Ham
  • Mashed potatoes
  • Spinach
  • Cabbage salad
  • Milk
  • Ice Cream (Van)
  • Ice Cream (Choc)
  • Fruit salad
  • Not Exposed Group
  • 17/29 59
  • 23/37 62
  • 20/32 62
  • 28/47 60
  • 44/71 62
  • 3/21 14
  • 20/27 74
  • 42/69 61

94
Attack Rate Table 2
95
Attack Rate Table 3
96
Study Type Case Control Studies
  • When the population in an outbreak is not well
    defined, a case control study design is used
  • Both case-patients and controls are asked about
    their exposures
  • Controls must not have the disease, but should be
    from the same population as the case-patients
  • The measure of association used is called an odds
    ratio

97
Odds Ratio
  • In a case-control study, attack rates cannot be
    calculated because the total number of people in
    the community who were and were not exposed to
    the source of the disease under study is not
    known
  • An odds ratio is used to measure of association
  • To calculate an odds ratio, it is helpful to look
    at data in a 2 x 2 table.

98
Odds Ratio
  • Example
  • Suppose an epidemiologist were investigating an
    outbreak of hepatitis A in a small town.
  • The suspected source was a favorite restaurant of
    the townspeople.
  • After questioning case-patients and controls
    about whether they had eaten at that restaurant,
    the data might look like this in a 2 x 2 table

99
Odds Ratio 2 x 2 Table
100
Odds Ratio
  • The odds ratio is calculated as ad/bc
  • Using the example from previous 2 x 2 Table
  • 30 x 70 36 x 10 5.8
  • People who ate at restaurant A were 5.8 times
    more likely to develop hepatitis A than were
    people who did not eat there
  • Now epidemiologists can compare the odds ratio
    with the odds ratios for other possible sources

101
Step 7 Evaluate HypothesesTesting Statistical
Significance
  • Determine how likely the study results could have
    occurred by chance
  • Called testing for statistical significance
  • Steps to testing statistical significance
  • State null hypothesis no association between
    exposure and outcome
  • Calculate chi-square test
  • Look up corresponding p-value in table of
    chi-squares.

102
Interpreting P-Values
  • Epidemiologists set in advance a cutoff point
    above which they will consider that chance is a
    factor
  • The common cutoff point is .05
  • If the p-value is below the cutoff point, the
    finding is considered statistically significant
    and the null hypothesis is rejected
  • The smaller the p-value, the stronger the
    evidence is for statistical significance

103
Step 8. Refine Hypotheses and Carry Out
Additional Studies
  • When analytic epidemiological studies do not
    confirm the hypotheses, they must be reconsidered
    along with new vehicles or modes of transmission
  • Even when an analytic study identifies an
    association, hypotheses will need to be refined
  • Often, more specific exposure histories or a more
    specific control group are needed
  • Epidemiologists consider what questions remain
    unanswered, and what kind of study might be used
    in the particular setting to answer some of these
    questions

104
Step 8. Refine Hypotheses and Carry Out
Additional Studies
  • Laboratory and environmental studies
  • While epidemiology can implicate vehicles and
    guide appropriate public health action,
    laboratory evidence can clinch the findings
  • Environmental studies often help explain why an
    outbreak occurred and may be very important in
    some settings

105
Step 9. Implementing Control and Prevention
Measures
  • Control measures, which can be implemented early,
    should be aimed at specific links in the chain of
    infection, the agent, the source, or the
    reservoir
  • In some situations, control measures are directed
    at interrupting transmission or exposure
  • Limit airborne spread
  • Use the method of cohorting by putting infected
    people together in separate area
  • Some control measures are directed at reducing
    susceptibility, such as travel immunizations

106
Step 10. Communicate Findings
  • The final task in an investigation is to
    communicate the findings to others who need to
    know.
  • This communication usually takes two forms
  • 1) an oral briefing
  • 2) a written report

107
Role of Non-Epidemiologists in CT Outbreak
Investigations
  • Assure outbreak comes to attention ASAP of those
    with experience and authority to investigate.
  • Report outbreaks to the state DPH.
  • Joint investigations by the LHD and DPH.
  • Provide assistance, as needed, depending on
    expertise.
  • Sanitarians can help to develop questionnaires,
    conduct environmental investigation.
  • Surge capacity needed to answer phones/public
    inquiry conduct interviews for analytic studies.

108
Roles in Foodborne Outbreak Investigations
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