The Scientific Method

1
The Scientific Method
2/18/1996
lots and lots and lots of math.
2
Goal

• What is the scientific method?
• What does the scientific method assume?
• Does the scientific method work?
• What is not a scientific argument.
• Does astrology follow the scientific method?

3
What is science?

• Science is a tool.
• Medicine I have high cholesterol, what should I
  do?
• Take cholesterol lowering medication.
• Consult your astrologer.
• Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat.

4
The Scientific Method

• Observe an event.
• Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a
  prediction.
• Test the prediction.
• Observe the result.
• Revise the hypothesis.
• Repeat as needed.
• A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific
  Theory.

5
Medical Science
6
Everyday Science
7
Everyday Science
8
Food Science

• Throwing something together ? Hypothesis
• Your grandmothers time-tested recipe ?
  Scientific Theory.

9
Repeatability

• A successful theory is repeatable.
• By you.
• By anyone.
• Examples
• Cold Fusion (1989)
• Ecstasy (Science, 2003)

10
Requirements

• Objective reality
• We all see the same world.
• Constant Laws of Nature
• What happens here, happens there.
• What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow.
• The Cosmos is knowable.

11
Does it work?

• Scientific Method is a tool.
• Does this tool work?
• Life expectancy
• Mortality rates
• Are there better tools?

12
Recap Theories, Guesses, Laws

• What does the word Theory mean to you?
• A conjecture guess (Websters Dictionary)
• Does it mean the same to a scientist?
• A model which has been born out by repeated
  tests and observation.
• Is a Theory less than a Law?
• Evolution is just a theory, it is not a fact.
• Do Theories grow up to be Laws?
• Einsteins Theory of Relativity

13
Theories

• So a theory is a highly successful hypothesis.
• All hypotheses make predictions.
• All theories make predictions.
• All theories can be tested.
• Result Any scientific theory is subject to
  change as our ability to make tests, or make
  observations of a tests results, improves with
  time.

14
Non-scientific Theories

• Make no predictions
• Un-testable
• Cant be falsified

15
Non-scientific Theories

• Car wont work? ? Aliens drained the battery.
• Spaghetti is bland? ? You were meant to eat bland
  food.
• Car wont work? ? Gods must be angry.
• Spaghetti is bland? ? At the instant of tasting,
  tongue is transported to alternate dimension
  where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens
  instantaneously.

16
Non-scientific Theories

• The chain of events needed for life to arise is
  too complicated to have happened by chance, a
  divine intelligence must therefore have caused
  life to arise (Intelligent Design).
• Face on Mars.

17
Falsification

• A real Scientific Theory tells you what
  observations are necessary to falsify it.
• Not so proponents of
• Face on Mars
• Moon Hoax
• Intelligent Design
• Astrologers

18
Astrology Tests

• What test would falsify astrology?

19
Astrology and the President

• (TIME, May 16, 1988) --
• The First Lady dabbled in astrology as far back
  as 1967. In 1981 Joan Quigley made Nancy a
  believer . And from then on, no presidential
  public appearance was slated without the Friend's
  say-so. To this day, Nancy's Friend continues to
  influence the President's schedule. For the
  Reagan-Gorbachev Washington summit, she cast the
  charts of both men and determined

Former White House Chief of Staff, Donald
Regan and others make a compelling case that in
1986 and 1987 astrological influence dramatically
reduced the presidency's effectiveness, at least
partly, by keeping Ronald Reagan under wraps for
much of the time. Nancy's intrusions in the
scheduling process, Regan said in an interview
with TIME last week, began to interfere with the
normal conduct of the presidency. (TIME, May
16, 1988)

• that 2 p.m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most
  propitious moment for them to sign the
  intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. At
  Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built
  around that hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit,
  Gorbachev's chart (he is a Pisces) has been
  recast alongside Reagan's (Aquarius).

20
HW3

• Devise a scientific test for some pseudoscience
  (astrology, tarot, etc).
• What claim are you testing?
• How will you test it?
• Due Tuesday 16th.