Theory and research II (3/26)

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Theory and research II (3/26)

1. The input of theory to research
2. Knowing how the e.g. of COP
3. Macro regressions in States
4. The conceptual scheme of One World

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5 Inputs of Theory to the Research process

• Conceptualization operationalization
• Model Specification
• Domain Specification (When?)
• Generalization
• Explanation (How? Why?)
• In a research course you are mainly interested in
  whether a particular association exists.
• In a theory course, you are interested in what it
  means and when, how and why?

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Knowing How v. Knowing That

• These issues are relevant to the kinds of
  disagreement that people have analyzing the data
  on the effects of poverty (e.g. INCOME _at_16) and
  culture of poverty (e.g. FAMILY _at_16) on
  opportunity (e.g. RANK).
• That is, there are issues of conceptualization
  and measurement.
• And, there are issues of interpretation of the
  coefficients and partial coefficients.

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Levels Re Culture of Poverty
We have discussed the relation of poverty and
culture of poverty several times. It is useful
to think how these levels might relate to the
data that we analyzed last Monday. (See Below)
Kind of Assumption Example Re Culture of poverty
General ideas about causality In analyzing data on culture of poverty, are there general issues about causality creating disagreement?
Causal Imagery Do different theorists have different ideas about what kinds of things are affecting what other kinds of things?
Classification of causes What are the main structures and dynamics relevant to the analysis of the culture of poverty?
Kinds of causes affecting other kinds What are the main theories about the negative effects on opportunity of poverty and of culture of poverty?
Thesis that a variable explains variation in another variable What do the main theories about the effects of poverty and culture of poverty imply, empirically?
Empirical consequences in particular conditions Empirically, what are the effects of INCOME _at_16 controlling FAMILY _at_16 and vice versa?
View that some particular data are examples of a concept What does this particular data suggest of show about the effects and dynamics of culture of poverty?
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I Theory and Operationalization

• In order to see whether X Y , you want
  to get an index or measure of X and one of Y and
  see whether and when they are associated such at
  when there is more X there is more Y.
• An index or measure is an observable in some data
  set that you have reason to suppose is associated
  with the underlying variable of interest.
• E.g. is FAMILY _at_16 and index of Culture of
  Poverty? Arent some rich families not intact?
• Note you often only operationalize a part of a
  theory .

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What is the effect of measurement error?

• Suppose that your index has a lot of noise in it
  so that it is not a very good measure of the
  underlying variable.
• This will usually just attenuate the
  relationship, making it appear weaker than it
  really is,
• So that the data is a conservative test of the
  hypothesis.
• Noise is different from bias.

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The effect of INCOME _at_16

• INCOME _at_16 by RANK
• BELOW AVG AVERAGE ABOVE AVG TOTAL
• BELOW AVER 3653 4309
  1324 9286
• 39.3 46.4 14.3 100.0
• AVERAGE 3699 9154 2658 15511
• 23.8 59.0 17.1 100.0
• ABOVE AVER 963 1954 1895 4812
• 20.0 40.6 39.4 100.0
• Missing 2988 4920 2288 10375
• TOTAL 8315 15417 5877 29609
• 8.1 52.1 19.8

• Gamma .305
• What is the size of the effect of growing up poor
  on opportunities?
• What does this prove, what does it imply, and
  what does it suggest
• about the complex of cumulative poverty?

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The effect of FAMILY _at_16

• FAMILY _at_16 by RANK
• BELOW AVG AVERAGE ABOVE AVG TOTAL
• YES 7638 15072 6469 29179
• 26.2 51.7 22.2 100.0
• NO 3662 5256 1694 10612
• 34.5 49.5 16.0 100.0
• TOTAL11300 20328 8163 39791
• 28.4 51.1 20.5

• Gamma -.179
• What is the size of the effect of growing up in a
  non-intact family
• on opportunities?
• What does this prove, what does it imply, and
  what does it suggest
• about the complex of cumulative poverty?

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What can we conclude from the data?

• What does it prove that gamma is .305?
• What does it imply?
• What does it suggest?
• What does it prove that gamma is -.179
• What does it imply?
• What does it suggest?
• What does it prove that .305 gt .179
• What does it imply?
• What does it suggest?

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II Theory and model specification

• Whenever one looks at any causal relation
  empirically, there are always an indefinitely
  large number of other forces going on.
• The overall assumptions about the forces that are
  operating are established and justified by
  theory.
• A crucial element of model specification is
  causal order. Does INCOME _at_16 RANK or does
  RANK INCOME _at_16 ?

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Why do we care which way?

• The observable data often do not prove which way
  the causal arrow goes.
• Some people in the 1950s then said, Lets stick
  with what can be proved from the data
  (associations) rather than causal inferences.
• Almost no one believes that what is important
  and interesting is the underlying causal forces
  that brought about the associations.

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Why Systems and Feedbacks are Inconvenient

• Often there are a lot of specific causal
  influences that have been demonstrated.
• But it is not clear how they fit together what
  is their dynamic under what conditions the
  effects obtain, etc.
• Whenever there are feedbacks, the problems become
  intricate.
• E.g. Myrdal.

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Systems and feedbacks about the culture of poverty

• Virtually all sociologists would agree the
  poverty and the culture of poverty are mutually
  reinforcing.
• Most would also agree that INCOME _at_16 is a
  reasonable measure of the effect of poverty and
  that broken families (e.g. FAMILY _at_16) are a
  reasonable measure of culture of poverty.

Poverty
Culture of Poverty

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Why Systems and Feedbacks are Inconvenient

• Often there are a lot of specific causal
  influences that have been demonstrated.
• But it is not clear how they fit together what
  is their dynamic under what conditions the
  effects obtain, etc.
• Whenever there are feedbacks, the problems become
  intricate.
• E.g. Myrdal.

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Clues about Causal order and systems dynamics

• The size and the relative size of the empirical
  associations and partial associations gives one
  indications of the system dynamics.
• But one will always have to make model
  specification assumptions.
• These must be theoretically motivated.

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Controls

• Some people believe that giving poor childrens
  parents money (e.g. AFDC) will largely or
  entirely fix the problems of those poor children
  who also have broken homes (which is many of
  them.)
• Partly they believe that this will cause fewer
  homes to break up.
• Some people believe that fixing childrens
  broken homes (e.g. faith based programs) will
  largely or entirely fix the problems of poor
  children.
• Partly they believe that this will pull most of
  the homes out of poverty.
• The size and the relative size of INCOME_at_16
  effects and FAMILY _at_16 effects can be suggestive.
• The effect of one, controlling the other is even
  more sugestive.

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The effect of INCOME _at_16 controlling FAMILY _at_16

• INCOME _at_16 by RANK
• Controls FAMILY _at_16 NO
• BELOW AVG AVERAGE ABOVE AVG TOTAL
• BELOW AVER 1446 1522 427 3395
• 42.6 44.8 12.6 100.0
• AVERAGE 907 1803 430 3140
• 8.9 57.4 13.7 100.0
• ABOVE AVER 208 392 277 877
• 23.7 44.7 31.6 100.0
• TOTAL 2561 3717 134 7412
• 34.6 50.1 15.3

• Partial Gamma .301 (conditional gamma .260)
• What is the size of the effect of growing up poor
  on opportunities
• controlling culture of poverty?
• What does this prove, what does it imply, and
  what does it suggest
• about the complex of cumulative poverty?

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Effect of FAMILY _at_16 controlling INCOME _at_16
(showing only 1st conditional table.)

• FAMILY _at_16 by RANK
• Controls INCOME _at_16 BELOW AVER
• BELOW AVG AVERAGE ABOVE AVG TOTAL
• YES 2207 2786 896 5889
• 37.5 47.3 15.2 100.0
• NO 1446 1522 427 3395
• 42.6 44.8 12.6 100.0
• TOTAL3653 4308 1323 9284
• 39.3 46.4 14.3

• Partial Gamma -.133 (conditional gamma -.098)
• What is the size of the effect of culture of
  poverty on opportunities
• controlling growing up poor?
• What does this prove, what does it imply, and
  what does it suggest
• about the complex of cumulative poverty?

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Controls as an answer to because

• Ordinarily if there is a relations between X and
  Y and you control T, and the original
  relationship goes away, that means that the
  original relationship is due to or because of
  the controlled variable.
• And if there is a relations between X and Y and
  you control T, and the original relationship does
  not go away, that means that the original
  relationship is not due to or because of the
  controlled variable.
• And if there is a relations between X and Y and
  you control T, and 1/3 the original relationship
  goes away, that means that 1/3 the original
  relationship is due to or because of the
  controlled variable.

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What can we conclude from the data?

• What does it prove that the partial gamma of
  INCOME _at_16 controlling FAMILY _at_16 is about the
  same as the bivariate?
• What does it imply?
• What does it suggest?
• What does it prove that the partial gamma of
  FAMILY _at_16 controlling INCOME _at_16 is a little
  smaller than the bivariate?
• What does it prove that gamma is -.179
• What does it imply?
• What does it suggest?

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Two different cases of because(why causal order
makes a diff.)
urbanism
storks
Birth rate
spuriousness
bleeding
death
Shot in heart
Intervening variable
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III) Domain Specification

• A theory is a claim.
• Usually it applies to some set of cases more
  limited than all social structures in all of
  recorded history,
• but much more general than the cases on which the
  claim is based.
• Theory involves establishing the domain of the
  theory.
• Statistical interactions are the main clues about
  domains.
• A mechanism (a WHY?) establishes a general
  domain.
• If the coins in my pocket are quarters because of
  the hole in the bottom of my pocket, then the
  coins will be quarters whenever such a hole
  exists.

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IV) Generalization

• Particular findings, empirical generalizations,
  and hypotheses (e.g. Protestants have higher
  suicide rates) need to be related to more general
  processes.
• Conceptualization (e.g. deviance rather than
  crime or suicide) is partly a matter of
  generalizing.

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Theory simplifies to the essential

• It is trivially true that both
• functional and conflict processes operate
• and that
• Culture influences social structure,
• and social structure influences culture.
• and also that
• individuals create social structures and social
  structures shape individuals.
• However, it is also trivially obvious that any
  theory must simplify, and that models that
  include everything are usually too complex to use
  or test.

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V) Explanation

• The conceptualization, and the establishment of
  the conditions and size of the effects is basic
  to establishing what is the mechanism that brings
  it about.
• The main paradigms propose mechanisms.

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SummaryTheory and research

• Research establishes that there is an
  association.
• Theoretical questions involve Why? How? and When?
• I.e. what direction does the causal arrow run in,
  under what circumstances, why and how?
• Often it is only the cumulative result of the
  scientific process over generations

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The main paradigms in sociology

• P. 267-276 of OW shows that the different maps of
  the main theoretical positions in sociology can
  be translated into each other.
• They boil down to two dimensions functional v
  conflict and micro v macro. However
• The 20-odd different sections of sociology such
  as medical sociology contain importantly
  different theoretical positions.
• Any way of dividing the 20,000 or so practicing
  sociologists into a small number of schools is
  bound to simplify

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The main map
Functional macro-theory e.g. Durkheim, Parsons Organizational- macro-theory e.g. Webers rationalization Conflict macro-theory e.g. Marx
Functional microtheory e.g. some aspects of Merton Interactionist micro-theory e.g. Mead Conflict micro-theory e.g. Mills
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Organization theories as a Mix

• The interactionist/organization theories stemming
  from Weber, Mead, and others, can be viewed as an
  ambivalent synthesis of elements of conflict and
  functional theory.
• Often the elements that distinguish them from
  functional or conflict theory appear at the micro
  level.

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Micro-theory v Macro-theory

• Micro-theories mainly treat social structure as
  the outcome of individual choices and actions.
• Parsons took Webers action theory as the main
  model.
• Other American sociologists took George Herbert
  Meads interactionism as a model.
• The main difference between rational-action
  theories stemming from Weber and symbolic
  interaction theories, stemming from Mead is the
  nature of the tinker-toy, but they are both
  tinker-toy models.

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Macro-theory

• Macro-theories focus on the fact that humans and
  human behavior is shaped by the social structure.
• This leads to concentrating on how social
  structures influence their members and other
  social structures.