ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY

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Title: ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY


1
ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY
  • CTS Nair
  • Chief Economist

2
STRUCTURE OF THE PRESENTATION
  • Objectives
  • Implementation
  • Where are we now?
  • General outlook

3
OBJECTIVES
  • Assess the changes in the forest sector and how
    it is responding to the needs of society.
  • Analyze what is likely to happen by 2020 under
    different scenarios.
  • Identify priorities and strategies that help to
    address emerging opportunities and challenges.

4
IMPLEMENTATION
  • Sub-regional outlook reports
  • Regional outlook report

5
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
  • Most country outlook papers and 17 thematic
    studies completed.
  • Half way through drafting regional and
    sub-regional reports.
  • Meeting of the Scientific Committee to review the
    draft regional and sub-regional reports scheduled
    in the first week of June 2009.
  • Finalization of regional and sub-regional reports
    by September 2009.

6
GENERAL OUTLOOK
  • Drivers of change and their implications.
  • Probable scenarios.
  • Broad patterns of change in the forest sector.

7
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
  • Demography
  • Economic changes
  • Policy and institutional developments
  • Environmental changes
  • Science and technology

8
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
  • How long will the current down-turn will last and
    when the recovery will start.
  • By early 2010 the World would have forgotten
    about the 2008-2009 recession and it is all
    business as usual scenario
  • Continued uncertainty on the economic front
    characterised by very low growth rates.

9
DIFFERING PATHWAYS OF DEVELOPMENT
  • Developed economies
  • No major changes expected
  • Emerging economies
  • Enormous uncertainties
  • Low and middle income land/ forest dependent
    economies
  • Continued tensions on the forest frontier -
    Deforestation and degradation.

10
OUTLOOK
  • Forest cover
  • Some gains, but probably more losses
  • Forest degradation will remain a major problem in
    the more densely populated regions
  • Wider adoption of sustainable forest management
  • A long way to go.

11
OUTLOOK
  • Wood products
  • Increasing demand for wood products
  • Significant increase in Asia-Pacifics share in
    production and trade
  • Wood energy
  • Some increase in the medium term, but could
    decline in the long term
  • New bioenergy resources and their implications

12
OUTLOOK
  • Environmental services
  • Continued demand for environmental services
  • Ecotourism

13
  • THANK YOU
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