Building Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Food Production in China

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Building Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Food
Production in China

• Ju Hui Lin Erda
• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Beijing,
  China , juhui_at_cjac.org.cn

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Contents

• Climate change and its impacts in China
• Policies for food production in China
• Food production and climate change
• Build adaptive capacity for food production
• Case study in Chongqing China

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Climate change in China- observed

• IPCC third assessment report identify an average
  increase in global temperature of 0.40.8 ? in
  past century
• Over the same period in China preliminary results
  show this temperature increase to be between
  0.50.8 ?, the impacts of climate change in China
  were different and severe.

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Climate change in China- future
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Average climate change scenarios under SRES A2
and B2 scenarios over China from PRECIS relative
to baseline simulation (19611990)
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Climate change has been found and will be not
avoidable in China, What impacts have taken and
will take to agricultural production by climate
change?
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Adverse Impacts in China
Cold damages after mild spring that lead to
damage on earlier buds and flowers
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Benefit changes of northern boundary of areas
for crops in the Northeast China under present
and future warming climate
Current rice extension
Winter wheat northward
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Regional Crop Model
Crop variety polygon file
Input files
Soil polygon file
Socioeconomic polygon file
PRECIS
Model Shell (Reading polygon input files,
writing output files, Running model repeatedly
based on the Polygon definition.)
CERES
Output files
Biomass output
Growth output
Water output
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Projected yield changes for wheat, 2080 (with
CO2 fertilisation effect)
A2 rainfed
A2 irrigated
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Climate change can take impacts on agriculture,
which involves adverse and benefit! Can we do
some to get benefit more and adverse less?
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Policies for food production in China
Target of 95 self-sufficiency is a central tenet
of China policies for grain food production

• Household responsibility system
• Grain and cotton protected price
• Long-term farm land rent contracts
• Return low quality grain land to green

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Conflicts -Food production and environment

• Water and soil erosion
• grassland degradation
• Salinity land
• Water pollution
• Crop residues
• ..

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• Challenges of food production in China

? Peak of 1.6 billion population around the year
of 2030? Heavy pressure for more animal food
and dairy needed? China joins WTO and will
suffer by international products? etc ..
eg. Climate changing
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Climate change will take extra challenges to food
production in China, as well as agricultural
development will also feed back to climate!
Build capacity to balance agricultural SD and
climate change!
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Build adaptive capacity for food production

• Public awareness
• Technology improvement

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Build adaptive capacity for food production

• Policy support
• International cooperation

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Regions with different Vulnerabilities
Agriculture
Coast Zone
Runoff Changes
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Population growth
Integrated food production strategies with
climate change!!Case-study in Chongqing China
Xiaohua Zhang
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Chongqing the youngest municipal city in China
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Objectives of the Chongqing study

• Develop strategies and policies that meet
  development priorities of Chongqing and address
  climate change
• Enhance local people ability to develop
  effective adaptation strategies that will help to
  minimize the negative consequences and maximize
  the positive effects of changing climatic
  conditions on agriculture.
• Draw lessons for applying such a strategy in
  other parts of China.

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Relative information-chongqing

• Chongqing is an agricultural production base of
  China.
• People living in the countryside is about 24
  millions which takes account about of 75
  Chongqing total population.
• The rural area accounts for more than 95 of
  Chongqing total territory.

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climate characteristic-chongqing

• Warm winter with less sunshine and frost
• Earlier spring with cold wave and hails
• Hot summer with abundant sunshine and flood or
  drought
• Cool autumn with less sunshine and cloudy rain
• Drought, flood, higher temperature

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Agricultural development strategies

• ten agricultural industrialization activities

• One million MU high quality Chinese herbs
  industrialization project
• One million MU natural spicery industrialization
  project
• One million MU bamboo sprouts industrialization
  project
• One million MU Rapeseed industrialization
  project
• One million MU ornamental plants
  industrialization project
• One million ton citrus deep process
  industrialization project
• One million ton high quality grain deeper
  process industrialization project
• One million Dan high quality Silk worm (cocoon)
  industrialization project
• One million of grass-feeding livestock
  industrialization project (including diary,
  cattle, goat, rabbit, number)
• One million exported high quality pig
  industrialization project

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Agricultural development priority

• High quality rice planting
• Deep process industrialization
• Animal raising

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Work focus on

• What scientific, technological and societal
  responses are required to deal with the impacts
  of climate change on regional agriculture?
• What climate-friendly and climate-safe
  technologies could be implemented in this region?
• What role do the food industry and markets have
  in the development of a climate friendly and
  climate-safe agricultural sector.
• How can recycling of waste and closing the
  nitrogen and carbon cycle between various sectors
  contribute to the sustainable development of the
  region?

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We dont inherit the world from our ancestors, we
borrow it from our children!
Thank you!