Turner, B L II, P' A' Matson, R' E' Kasperson,

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Turner, B L II, P. A. Matson, R. E. Kasperson,
J. E. X. Kasperson. 2002. Vulnerability in
human-environment relationships Presentation at
the Science and technology for a transition
toward sustainability symposium, American
Association for the Advancement of Science Annual
Meeting. 17 February 2002. Boston, MA.
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Vulnerability in Human-Environment
RelationshipsB. L. Turner II, P. A. Matson, R.
E. Kasperson, J. E. X. Kasperson
Research and Assessment Systems for
Sustainability Program NSF BCS-0004236 with
contributions from the NOAA's Office of Global
Programs

• AAAS Symposium
• Science and Technology for a Transition Toward
  Sustainability,
• Feb. 17, 2002, Boston, MA

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Emergence of Vulnerability Interests

• Expansion of GEC and related concerns to
  impacts ? a complement to the condition and
  functioning of the biosphere and the drivers of
  change
• Vulnerability degree to which an exposure unit
  and its attendant human-environment system is
  harmed due to exposure to a perturbation or
  stress
• Builds on risk-hazards-climate impact studies of
  the social and integrated sciences, by
  incorporating
• ecological concept of sensitivity and resilience
  (also, complexity and non-linearity)
• economic concept of entitlements
• political economic concepts of unequal
  empowerment and contested relationships

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Vulnerability Not Risk in Human-Environment
Relationships

• Vulnerability is a quality that resides within
  the condition or make up of the system in
  question (or a designated exposure unit in the
  system)
• the hazard (perturbation or stressor)
• solely the risk of exposure to the hazard
• Sensitivity and resilience critical elements
• ? Sensitivity how exposure is registered
• Resilience how system responds adjustments and
  adaptability
• Both elements may vary by the kinds and
  sequencing of hazards
• The system in question is a coupled
  human-environment system, therefore vulnerability
  
• ? relates to multiple forcings including their
  sequencing
• involves synergistic relationships
• maintains cascading or downstream consequences
  
• Metrics, measures, and conceptual standards not
  yet developed for coupled system and most system
  characteristics (e.g., sensitivity)

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Simplified Vulnerability - Coupled
Human-Environment System Linkages
Temporal and spatial dynamics omitted
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Two examples from México

• Same national political economy and basic policy
  ? quasi-social-controlled to neoliberal
  conditions
• Same root organizational institution rules ?
  ejido
• Radically different biophysical and socioeconomic
  conditions
• Significantly different vulnerabilities in the
  coupled system

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Yaqui Valley, Sonora, MéxicoMultiple
Forcings Cascading Impacts
N
Intensive, irrigated agriculture
Arid landscape that has become the commercial
breadbasket wheat of the country through
large-scale irrigation and high capital input
cultivation. Increasing livestock production
and shrimp farming along coast.
Golfo de California
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Global environmental change
Agricultural intensification
Industrial development
Coastal zone change
Aquaculture
Urbanization
Open Marine
Estuaries
Coastal Wetland
Agriculture
Desert/Shrub Ecosystem
Water allocation and quality
Habitat loss and biological diversity
Food production
Air chemistry and quality
Extractive resources
Biogeochemical transfers
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Multiple Forcings
Climate ? (sea level, precipitation)
Market ?
Banks/ Credit
Technology ?
Energy ?
Water Demand ? (outside)
affect different components of the system with
cascading effects on different economic sectors
Water
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Wetlands
Urban
Estuaries Fisheries
Industry
Fisheries Marine
Note institutions for each component, but no
institutions for integrated system.
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• Vulnerable to
• Climate change and weather variability
• Global Markets
• Fluctuation of Peso
• Demographic shift
• urbanization
• out-migration
• Climate change and sea level rise

• Concern about outcomes in
• Employment
• Economic Status
• Water availability
• Water/Air quality
• Human health
• Conservation of wetlands, marine
• Recreation/Tourism

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Southern Yucatán Peninsular RegionChanging
Vulnerability and Coupled System Synergies
A seasonal tropical forest frontier opened to
extensive settlement over last 30 years and over
portions of which has established Méxicos
largest tropical biosphere reserve, El Mundo Maya
archaeo-eco-tourism program, and Mesoamerican
Biological Corridor program.
Land Cover in SYPR 1997
Xpujil
27 km
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• Vulnerable to
• Climate change and weather variability
• National chile market
• Land Pressures
• Population growth
• Incipient intensification
• Land-use/ecosystem responses to repeated
  low-input cultivation
• Programs seeking to preserve total forest area

• Concern about outcomes in
• Household economic status
• Variability in annual hh income
• Landscape fragmentation forest structure and
  function
• Critical elements of ecosystem e.g., bats
• Invasive species
• Archaeo-eco-tourism

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Vulnerability in Coupled Human-Environment System
Linkages
Temporal and spatial dynamics omitted
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Simplified Vulnerability in Coupled
Human-Environment System Linkages
Coupled System
System Responses
Socioeconomic Conditions
Exposure
Adjustments Adaptations
? Risks impacts
Biophysical conditions
Exposure
Sensitivity
Resilience
Resilience
Temporal and spatial dynamics omitted
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Research Lessons Questions

• Lesson
• Prescription based largely on the
  perturbation-stress or spatio-temporal
  characteristics of exposure will surely miss the
  mark in regard to impacts across systems
• Understanding the sensitivity and resilience of
  the coupled human-environment system is critical
  to impact-response assessment
• This understanding must include
  multiple-sequential nature of the
  perturbations-stresses
• Question
• Are standard measures, metrics, and indicators of
  the character of the coupled system and its
  sensitivity and resilience possible and useful
  for assessment?