Global Heating:

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• Global Heating
• Real, Rapid and Redressable
• David C Hall, MD,
• Washington Physicians for Social Responsibility
• with special thanks and credit to
• Arjun Makhijani, PhD, Founder
  and CEO
• Institute for Energy and
  Environmental Research

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Why Im Doing This

• I love my family, I love my country, I love the
  Earth
• As a child and family psychiatrist I want a
  sustainably healthy world for all generations
• The gravest threats to this future include
  nuclear terrorism, perpetual war and catastrophic
  climate change
• To achieve this peace we need to reverse global
  warming, abolish nuclear weapons, and create
  local energy economies that eliminate poverty
• This requires carbon-free, nuclear-free energy

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• Toward a Nuclear-Free World
• GEORGE P. SHULTZ, WILLIAM J. PERRY, HENRY A.
  KISSINGER and SAM NUNN
• The Wall Street Journal Commentary -
  January 15, 2008 Page A13
• The accelerating spread of nuclear weapons,
  nuclear know-how and nuclear material has brought
  us to a nuclear tipping point.
• The steps we are taking now to address these
  threats are not adequate to the danger. With
  nuclear weapons more widely available, deterrence
  is decreasingly effective and increasingly
  hazardous.

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• The Basic Argument for Carbon-Free and
  Nuclear-Free Energy for the United States
• Global heating is real
• CO2 emissions are the dominant problem
• The United States must lead
• Environmentally friendly energy is abundantly
  available
• Nuclear power is not the answer
• Governments must act
• A robust economy is achievable with alternative
  energy

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Global Heating

• Its real!

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Tropospheric temperature changes (1979 - 2004)
Color coded map of decadal trends tropospheric
temperature (1979 - 2004) derived from satellite
measurements. Work of Qiang Fu and collaborators
in the UW Department of Atmospheric Sciences
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Were losing our summer water storage
Among the most serious impacts of greenhouse
warming is the decreasing availability of water
during summer due to the rise in wintertime
freezing levels and the consequent reduction in
the volume of water stored snow pack.
Trends in April 1 snow water equivalent,
1950-97. Negative trends indicated by red circles
and positive trends by blue. From the article by
Mote et al., (2005).
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Global Heating

• CO2 is the problem

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CO2
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People are dumping too many GHGs into our air
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Global Heating

• Its rapid
• and
• accelerating!

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Our forests are at increasing risk from fires and
pests
Fires in Chelan National Forest 2007
Pine beetles Canada has spent over 100 million
without success Now
spreading throughout Washington Oregon
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For the first time in human history, ice is on
course to disappear entirely from the North Pole
in 2008
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Change in Mean Sea Level 1993 to 2004
Satellite data
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James Hansen, DirectorNASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies

• "We're toast if we don't get on a very different
  path"
• "This is the last chance."

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September 2007

• Arctic Ocean
• 23 less sea ice than prior record low in 2005
• Greenlands ice sheet
• 19 billion tons below previous record

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Why it matters

• If Greenlands ice sheet completely melts, the
  ocean will reclaim the Everglades.
• If warming melts Antarcticas western ice sheet,
  Florida will end at Lake Okeechobee Miami and
  New Orleans will become Americas Atlantis
• thats where nuclear energy and nuclear power
  come in.
• -- John Podesta, president, Center for
  American Progress

WPSR July 2007
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Sea Rise Impacts US Gulf Coast and Florida
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ALL we have to do is break our addiction to
greenhouse emissions
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• The Basic Argument for Carbon-Free and
  Nuclear-Free Energy for the United States
• Global heating is real and is already causing
  serious climate change
• CO2 emissions are the dominant source of
  human-induced climate heating -- they
  generate 85 of US GHGs
• The United States must lead the world in reducing
  CO2 emissions or seriously disruptive climate
  change takes over
• Nuclear power is not the answer. It is too slow,
  too expensive, too dirty, and too dangerous
  funding nuclear power undermines effective
  alternatives
• Environmentally friendly energy is abundantly
  available
• Governmental and intergovernmental energy
  policies should support renewable, non-food
  sourced energy and phase out fossil fuel and
  nuclear energy
• Carbon-free nuclear-free energy sufficient for
  the US economy is achievable

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Global Heating

• The United States must lead the way

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John McCain Oil Independence in 5 years Climate
Change is real

• We have got to achieve energy independence, oil
  independence in this nation. I will make it a
  Manhattan Project, and we will in five years
  become oil independent.
• It's real global warming. We've got to address
  it with technology, with cap-and- trade, with
  capitalist and free enterprise motivation. We can
  pass on to our children and grandchildren a
  cleaner, better world.
• Source 2007 Des Moines Register Republican
  Debate Dec 12, 2007

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Barack ObamaReduce carbon emissions by 80 by
2050

• Cap and Trade Obama supports implementation of a
  market-based cap-and-trade system to reduce
  carbon emissions by the amount scientists say is
  necessary 80 below 1990 levels by 2050. Obama's
  cap-and-trade system will require all pollution
  credits to be auctioned. A 100 auction ensures
  that all polluters pay for every ton of emissions
  they release, rather than giving these emission
  rights away to coal and oil companies. Some of
  the revenue generated by auctioning allowances
  will be used to support the development of clean
  energy, to invest in energy efficiency
  improvements, and to address transition costs,
  including helping American workers affected by
  this economic transition.
• Confront Deforestation and Promote Carbon
  Sequestration Obama will develop domestic
  incentives that reward forest owners, farmers,
  and ranchers when they plant trees, restore
  grasslands, or undertake farming practices that
  capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

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Guest columnistU.S. must lead on climate
changeBy Tony BlairSpecial to the Washington
Post Tuesday, June 3, 2008

• Unless the United States radically reduces its
  greenhouse-gas emissions, along with other major
  emitters, the damage to the climate will be
  irreversible.

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National Security and the Threat of Climate
Change Military Advisory Board

• Climate change can act as a threat multiplier
  for instability in some of the most volatile
  regions of the world, and it presents significant
  national security challenges for the United
  States.

http//SecurityAndClimate.cna.org
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Global Heating

• Its redressable!
• Friendly energy is abundantly available

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5. Environmentally friendly energy is abundantly
available
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A reliable U.S. electricity sector with zero-CO2
emissions can be achieved without the use of
nuclear power or fossil fuels.

• Wind energy resources in 12 Midwestern and Rocky
  Mountain states equal about 2.5 times the entire
  electricity production of the United States
• North Dakota, Texas, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska
  and South Dakota each have wind energy potential
  greater than the electricity produced by all 103
  U.S. nuclear power plants
• Solar energy resources on just one percent of the
  area of the United States are about three times
  as large as wind energy, if production is focused
  in the high sun intensity areas in the Southwest
  and West.

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Capacity and Cost for Wind Solar
-- Greenpeace International, The Economics of
Nuclear Power, 2007
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Global Heating

• Governments must act

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6. Governmental and intergovernmental energy
policies must support renewable, non-food sourced
energy and phase out fossil fuel and nuclear
energy
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Federal Energy RD Expenditures 1948-1998
WPSR July 2007
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Electricity subsidiesFirst 15 years (in billion
1999 dollars)
Renewable Energy Policy Project, July 2000
WPSR July 2007
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Energy RD in 2006
WPSR July 2007
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Global Heating

• Nuclear power is not the answer

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• 4. Nuclear power dirty, dangerous, costly,
  setback
• Nuclear waste
• Nuclear weapons proliferation
• Terrorist dirty bomb
• Chernobyl revisited (350 billion so far)
• Wall Street jitters (90 seconds 90 billion)
• Overall more vulnerable energy system
• Undermines investment in sustainable energy

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Proliferation
Three dozen countries, including Iran, Japan,
Brazil, Argentina, Egypt, Taiwan, South Korea,
and Turkey, have the technological capacity to
make nuclear weapons
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Scaling up nuclear power will slow our response
to global warming

• US government estimates for earliest completion
  of new nuclear power plants
• 2014 for current design
• 2025 for advanced (Generation IV) design
• Cost overruns incurred in building the latest
  generation of nuclear power plants
• 150 billion (2005 dollars)

-- UCS Position Paper on Nuclear Power and
Global Warming, March 2007
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Price-Anderson Act Huge public

• 1957 Senate report the problem of reactor
  safety will be to a great extent solved and the
  insurance people will have had an experience on
  which to base a sound program of their own.
• Pooled coverage for 103 plants 9.8 billion
• Chernobyl - 350 billion already paid by Russia,
  Ukraine and Belarus

WPSR July 2007
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High Level Radioactive Wastes DOE and GNEP
WPSR July 2007
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Reprocessing Problems

• No nation has a commercially viable reprocessing
  facility
• France still runs a highly subsidized plant
• End products are plutonium or plutonium mixed
  with uranium plus other highly toxic radioactive
  contaminants in the liquid wastes

Hanford waste tank
WPSR July 2007
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Additional risks from nuclear power
Besides the nuclear weapon states, about three
dozen countries, including Iran, Japan, Brazil,
Argentina, Egypt, Taiwan, South Korea, and
Turkey, have the technological capacity to make
nuclear weapons. Power plants are announced
terrorist targets and meltdown risks. No
country has so far been able to address the
significant long-term health, environmental and
safety problems associated with spent fuel or
high level waste disposal, even as official
assessments of the risk of harm from exposure to
radiation continue to increase.8 Since the
early 1980s, Wall Street has been, and remains,
skeptical of nuclear power due to its expense and
risk.
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Nuclear power accident near NYC?

• Worst-case accident or attack for Indian Point
  nuclear plant 35 miles north of NYC could cause
  up to 43,700 immediate fatalities and up to
  518,000 long-term cancer deaths
• Could cost up to 2.1 trillion
• Could force relocation of 11.1 million people
• -- Dr. Ed Lyman, UCS, Sept 2004, using
  NRC methodology

WPSR July 2007
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It may seem impossible to imagine that a
technologically advanced society could choose, in
essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we
are now in the process of doing --
Elizabeth Kolbert, The New Yorker,
The Climate of Man, Part III, May 9, 2005
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Global Heating

• A robust economy is achievable with clean
  energy

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Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free A Roadmap for US
Energy Policy (2007) Arjun Makhijani
PhD, Founder/CEO Institute for Energy and
Environmental Research
Three questions Is it possible to physically
eliminate CO2 emissions from the U.S. energy
sector without resort to nuclear power, which has
serious security and other vulnerabilities?
Is a zero-CO2 economy possible without purchasing
offsets from other countries? Is it possible
to accomplish the above at reasonable cost?
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Central Finding The overarching finding of this
study is that a zero-CO2 U.S. economy can be
achieved within the next 30 to 50 years without
the use of nuclear power and without acquiring
carbon credits from other countries.
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A zero-CO2 U.S. economy without nuclear power is
not only achievable it is necessary for
environmental protection and national security.
Even the process of the United States setting
a goal of a zero-CO2, nuclear-free economy and
taking initial firm steps towards it will
transform global energy politics
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A goal of a zero-CO2 economy is necessary to
minimize harm related to climate change.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global
CO2 emissions would need to be reduced by 50 to
85 percent relative to the year 2000 in order to
limit average global temperature increase to 2 to
2.4 degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial
times An 85 percent global reduction in CO2
emissions corresponds to a 96 percent reduction
for the United States.
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Hard cap and auction
A hard cap on CO2 emissions -- that is, a fixed
emissions limit that declines year by year until
it reaches zero would provide large users of
fossil fuels with a flexible way to phase out CO2
emissions.
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Cap Trade?

• To work, cap trade must
• Cover sufficient GHG emissions
• Be fair to older and newer users
• Support low-income consumers
• Create an affordable bureaucracy
• Maintain effective negative incentives

Arjun recommends hard cap and auction
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Hard Cap Auction Who?

• Large users of fossil fuels, eg, those purchasing
  100 billion BTUs or more
• This would capture 1/2 to 3/4ths of US CO2
  emissions at their source
• Included would be electric utilites, airlines,
  large corporation truck and auto fleets, large
  manufacturers

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Efficient technology and building design
Residential and commercial buildings can be built
with just one-third to one-tenth of the
present-day average energy use per square foot
with existing technology
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Biofuels, broadly defined, could be crucial to
the transition to a zero-CO2 economy without
serious environmental side effects or,
alternatively, they could produce considerable
collateral damage or even be very harmful to the
environment and increase greenhouse gas
emissions. The outcome will depend essentially on
policy choices, incentives, and research and
development, both public and private.
Ethanol from corn and biodiesel from palm oil are
two prominent examples of damaging biofuel
approaches. All subsidies for fuels derived
from food crops should be eliminated.
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Microalgae have been demonstrated to capture over
80 percent of the daytime CO2 emissions from
power plants and can be used to produce up to
10,000 gallons of liquid fuel per acre per year.
Water hyacinths have similar efficiency of
solar energy capture and can be grown in
wastewater as part of combined water treatment
and energy production systems.
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Much of the reduction in CO2 emissions can be
achieved without incurring any cost penalties
(as, for instance, with efficient lighting and
refrigerators). The cost of eliminating the rest
of CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel use is likely
to be in the range of 10 to 30 per metric ton
of CO2.
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Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute

• the thousand or so best electricity-saving
  innovations now on the market, if fully used
  throughout the United States, would displace over
  half of all the electricity the country now uses.
  Our best estimate is that theyd save at least
  75 of all electricity more cheaply than just
  operating existing thermal power stations

WPSR July 2007
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The transition to a zero-CO2 system can be made
in a manner compatible with local economic
development in areas that now produce fossil
fuels.
Many areas where current nuclear and fossil fuel
energy industries reside are also well-endowed
with the main renewable energy resources solar
and wind Resources raised by the sale of CO2
allowances should be devoted to reducing the
disruption from converting to renewable energy
and from the closing of out-dated
industries Federal, state and regional policies
should be designed to help workers and
communities transition to new industries
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Battery technologies are rapidly improving
Stanford Report, December 18, 2007 Nanowire
battery can hold 10 times the charge of existing
lithium-ion battery
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Grass to biofuel

• The use of fossil fuels to power the process
  releases 0.3 tonnes of CO2 per hectare per year -
  but the growing grasses store 4.4 tonnes of CO2
  in the roots and soil, meaning the net result is
  4.1 tonnes removed from the atmosphere.

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Expanding Solar technologies

• SunPower Corporation announced in May 2008 they
  have produced a five inch prototype solar cell
  with a world record efficiency of 23.4 percent
  for commercial production. They already have in
  production for the past year the Gen 2
  photovoltaic cell with 22 percent efficiency

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Seville, Spain first stage of Europes first
commercial solar power station
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• MARLBORO, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)May 22,
  2008--Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq ESLR), has
  new contractual backlog of approximately 1
  billion.

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New Solar Technologies Coming

• HelioVolt Corporation announces thin film solar
  cells with 12.2 percent conversion efficiencies
  produced in a record setting six minutes.
• Based on the new Gen 2 Solar Cells, SunPowers
  SPR-315 solar panel will get a 22 photovoltaic
  (PV) efficiency

SpectroLab (a Boeing company) has produced a
multi-junction solar cell capable of 40
efficiency in space
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• Multi-Junction Solar Cell
• (40 efficiency in space)
• Layered cells use different alloys to capture
  different wavelengths
• Optical concentrators (like a magnifying glass)
  increase solar intensity
• The US Department of Energy believe that solar
  cells with such high efficiencies will eventually
  lead to installation costs of just 3 per watt
  and generate electricity at a competitive 8-10
  cents per kWh. Spectrolab scientists believe that
  these multi-junction solar cells are capable of
  even higher efficiencies in the near future.

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14.8 kilowatt solar system in Calistoga,
California
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A high-tech test rig for our high-tech wind
generators! Otherpower.com's trusty Model A Ford
windmill tester.
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Wind Energy is advancing rapidly

• Monday, February 12, 2007
• Massive Offshore Wind Turbines Safe for Birds
• Infrared monitoring shows that savvy seabirds
  steer clear of wind turbines.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008 Wind Power That
Floats Advances in floating platforms could take
wind farms far from coasts, reducing costs and
skirting controversy.
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In 2007, according to the Global Wind Energy
Council, more than 20,000 megawatts of capacity
were installed internationally, with the United
States, Spain, and China leading the way.
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1. The solar tower is 115m (377ft) tall and
surrounded by 600 steel reflectors (heliostats).
They track the sun and direct its rays to a heat
exchanger (receiver) at the top of the tower 2.
The receiver converts concentrated solar energy
from the heliostats into steam 3. Steam is stored
in tanks and used to drive turbines that will
produce enough electricity for up to 6,000 homes
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SeaGen Tidal Generator, Ireland
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What You Can Do

• Green your personal lives
• Green your donations
• Green your volunteer time
• Green your investments
• Green your politics - local, state, national
  international

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Carbon-free and Nuclear-free can mean we the US
no longer need energy wars
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Martin Luther King Jr April 1967

• Our only hope today lies in our ability to
  recapture the revolutionary spirit and go out
  into a sometimes hostile world declaring eternal
  hostility to poverty, racism, and militarism.

A genuine revolution of values means in the
final analysis that our loyalties must become
ecumenical rather than sectional. Every nation
must now develop an overriding loyalty to mankind
as a whole in order to preserve the best in their
individual societies.
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Goodbye carbon fuels, new nuclear waste, and
nuclear proliferation
Hello sun, wind, wave, water and weeds
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Energy Peace Committee
WPSRs areas of activism
Hanford Task Force
Trident WMDs
Global Warming
Hanford Clean-up
Environment Human Health Committee
Toxins-free Environment
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by Arjun Makhijani, Ph.D. A Joint Project of
theNuclear Policy Research Institute and the
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research
IEER Press and RDR Books, 2007257 pages,
paperback

• http//www.ieer.org