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The US-China-EU-India-Japan Strategic

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Title: The US-China-EU-India-Japan Strategic


1
Leergang Topmanagement Defensie,
Clingendael, 7 April 2008
The US-China-EU-India-Japan Strategic Pentagon
Willem van Kemenade www.clingendael.nl
E-mail kemenade_at_xs4all.nl
2
Portrait of Chinese
Reform-Communism 2008
  • State-capitalism without functional rule of law.
  • Property-rights have only been incorporated in
    2002-2003 again in the Constitution and
    legislated in 2007 in greater but inadequate
    detail in a new Property Law
  • No adequate pensions, no real labour unions and a
    poorly functioning taxation system.
  • Economic growth mainly financed by banks who
    transfer the savings of peasants to continue
    lending to state-owned enterprises.
  • The rest of the world cannot continue absorbing
    Chinese exports at their current growth-rate
    forever.
  • China cannot continue endlessly with the
    accumulation of forex reserves and function as
    banker of last resort for the US.
  • China has to become a normal economy, with high
    internal consumption, lower savings and more
    efficient state enterprises.

3
Political Liberalization ?
  • China has evolved from a totalitarian
    Marxist-Leninist dictatorship to a nationalist,
    conservative, selectively repressive,
    authoritarian state.
  • Resilient authoritarianism (Andrew Nathan).
  • All-embracing goal is Building a Harmonious
    Society (Neo-Confucianism).
  • Biggest problem is to get new top-talent in the
    party. The best and the brightest work for
    multinationals and local private sector.
  • Optimism that engagement, internet,
    globalisation, WTO-accession, prosperity, urban
    middle class and low-level elections would lead
    to democratisation at the national level, has not
    materialized as yet.

4
No Elections, but Selections
  • Chinas regime is no longer a rigid dictatorship
    without checks balances like under Mao.
  • The leaders are not elected by the people, but
    selected by the party-elite
  • The Selectorate
  • Party 70.8 million members
  • Party Congress (2120)
  • Central Comite (198 alternates)
  • Politbureau (23-24)
  • Standing Committee (9)
  • The most powerful cluster of organisations under
    de CP is the so-called Control Cartel
  • Organization Dept., Propaganda Dept., Ministeries
    van Staats- en Openbare Veiligheid, PLA en PAP.
  • As long as the party controls the gun and the pen
    its power is assured.

5
Tibet
  • China has known stability since the violent
    repression of the Tiananmen student-rebellion
    in 1989. Now the virtuous cycle seems to have
    come to an end.
  • In 1989, the wave of unrest started in Tibet,
    preceded by major political developments.
  • The Tibetan cause was petering out due to
    spectacular economic development and increasing
    curtailment of the Tibetan exile movement in
    India.
  • Late last year, it was widely anticipated that
    all so-called anti-China forces, the Tibetan
    Exiles, the Taiwanese and Uygur independence
    hardliners, dissidents, Falun Gong and Human
    Rights organisation, would unite to cause one
    Public Relations Nightmare after the other to
    China and deprive it of its Olympic glory.

6
Chinas Defence Budget 2008
  • China's military budget for 2008 will increase by
    17.6 to 417.77 bn yuan, or 58.8 billion. This
    follows a 17.8 increase in 2007.
  • Jiang Enzhu, spokesman of the NPC said on March
    3, 2008 that the moderate increase in spending
    this year was purely defensive and would allow
    for upgraded equipment along with better pay and
    benefits for service personnel.
  • Experts in the US say that Beijing's real defense
    spending is two or three times the announced
    figure and that these sustained increases have
    put China on track to become a major military
    power, most capable of challenging U.S. dominance
    in East Asia.
  • The Pentagon said China announced a military
    budget for 2007 of 45 billion but estimated
    total military spending for that period at
    between 97 billion and 139 billion.
  • Since the recent presidential election in Taiwan
    has significantly reduced the chance of military
    conflict, it will be interesting how high the
    increase will be next year.

7
China and the US Partners on Global
Issues
  • While visiting China in February, S.o.S.
    Condoleezza Rice said I'm quite certain that
    when China and the United States co-operate, we
    are better able to resolve some of the really
    complex and difficult issues that face the
    international system.
  • She singled out the N.-Korean nuclear issue,
    Myanmar and Darfur but not Iran !
  • Ms. Rice also criticised a plan by Taiwan to
    stage a referendum on membership of the UN.
  • In January, Indian PM Manmohan Singh had visited
    Beijing, stating that India would not be part of
    any US-led effort to contain China.

8
Gates went to China before Rice and before he
went to India
  • On an official visit to Beijing on November 5,
    U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates netted a
    small victory for Washington. Gates and his
    Chinese counterpart Cao Gangchuan agreed to
    develop a live hotline between their
    militaries. The hotline, a first of its kind for
    Beijing, is seen as evidence of increasing
    stability and transparency in Sino-American
    relations.
  • Likewise, Washington too has become increasingly
    disgruntled with Taiwan's military development,
    noted by the failure to build an adequate
    defensive posture (through the purchase of U.S.
    weapons) and the vocal development of a cache of
    long-range cruise missiles. Dubbed the Hsiung
    Feng IIE, Washington fears its development will
    be seen as an offensive measure in Beijing.

9
US-India Stronger Defense Ties Not in context
of China
  • While visiting India late February, US S.o.D.
    Robert Gates said I dont see our improving
    military relationship in this region in the
    context of any other country, including China.
  • Gates rejected suggestions that efforts to
    improve relations with other militaries in the
    region were aimed at China. He said the Pentagon
    wanted to bolster the ability of the US and
    Indian militaries to cooperate on issues such as
    piracy, terrorism and providing disaster relief.
  • Pentagon official There is fundamental
    commonality of interests between the US and these
    three democracies (Australia, Indonesia, India)
    There are reasons for having interoperable
    weapons systems ... not in an aggressive sense
    but certainly as a hedge.

10
Gates Main Purpose was Defense Trade
  • These expanding relationships don't necessarily
    have to be directed to
    anybody. They are a set of
    bilateral relationships that are aimed at
    improving our coordination.
  • Gates' talking points in Delhi related primarily
    to defense trade. India's procurement of 126
    multi-role combat aircraft in a deal estimated at
    10 billion - and possibly, as high as 16
    billion - was number one priority for him.
  • The principal bidders include Lockheed Martin's
    F-16 and Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet.
  • The importance of the deal is not only
    commercial, but that the new generation aircraft
    will be in use with the Indian Air Force for the
    next 40-year period and, therefore, clinching the
    deal becomes absolutely vital for the US if it is
    to aim at inter-operability.
  • Deal for six Lockheed C-130J cargo aircraft just
    concluded.
  • The Russian are engaged in a cut-throat
    competitive bidding spree.

11
China, India and their major arms suppliers
Russia and Israel
  • Since the 1990s, Russia supplied China with SU 27
    and SU 30 fighters, submarines and Sovremenny
    destroyers.
  • In 1980s, Israel has been a covert supplier of
    advanced military technology, estimated at 4 bn
    to China, dodging US objections.
  • Israel came under US pressure in 2000 to scrap a
    250 million deal to sell China the Falcon, an
    airborne radar system equipped with advanced
    Israeli-made aeronautics on board a Russian-made
    plane.
  • Only when the US Congress threatened to cut the
    2 billion aid it gives Israel annually, Israel
    buckled. Israel had to pay 350 million
    compensation to China.
  • The US did not oppose Israeli supply of the
    Falcon to India.
  • Acoording to US DIA, Israel resold Patriot
    missile technology to China and says, Chinas F
    10 fighter is a copy of the Israel Lavi.

12
Crisis in Russias arms supply relationships with
China
  • Russia's arms industry is suffering a near
    collapse in exports to China as top brass agonize
    over which technology can safely be sold to
    China, as well as made in China under license.
  • The main issue is indecision. Russians feel
    genuinely concerned, in the medium to longer
    term, that Russian and Chinese interests may
    collide again, said Alexey Muraviev, a strategic
    analyst at Curtin University of Technology in
    Perth, Australia.
  • There is this debate about whether we should arm
    the Chinese when they may eventually turn against
    us.
  • Still, with the Western arms embargo on China
    still in place, most analysts expect that Moscow
    and Beijing will eventually negotiate compromises
    that clear the way for future contracts.
  • Russia still provides what the US and the EU
    will not supply.
  • Russian analysts estimate that arms deliveries to
    China from 1992 to 2006 were valued at 26
    billion. Last year they were almost zero !

13
China much more frustrated over Russia than India
  • Some of the Russian transfers to India include
    weapons and technology that Moscow refuses to
    supply to China. Moscow and Delhi agreed to begin
    the joint development of a new, so-called
    fifth-generation fighter.
  • This aircraft would be a potential rival in
    performance to the U.S. F-22 Raptor, defense
    analysts say.
  • India also agreed last year to buy another 40
    Su-30MKI fighters from Russia for 1.5 billion in
    addition to an earlier order for 140. Some
    military experts say this versatile, twin-engined
    jet is probably the best fighter and strike
    aircraft in the world. But Russia has not offered
    it to China. And Moscow is offering to sell India
    its latest fighter, the MiG-35.
  • In nuclear submarine technology, Russia has also
    been more generous with India than with China.

14
Will the US-India Nuclear Deal be completed ?
  • FM Pranap Mukherjee announced March 24 that India
    rejects the US timeline (end May) for the
    negotiations on the US-India Nuclear Deal. This
    implies the deal will not be concluded before the
    end of the Bush presidency.
  • This may again slow the fast momentum of the
    US-India relationship during the Bush-years and
    hinder the development of the defense
    relationship.
  • Full blossoming of the strategic partnership,
    missile defense and supply of a new generation of
    fighter planes may take a decade.
  • Russia is likely to continue as a major arms
    supplier.
  • Some systems will be supplied by Europeans.

15
Russo-American Battle for India !
  • The Soviet Union/Russia have had a close defense
    trade relationship, including license
    co-production etc. since the Brezhnev era.
  • Biggest but incomplete deal was transfer of
    carrier Admiral Gorshkov (1982) for free but on
    condition of major refitting and additional
    aircraft deals. Progress abysmal. Financial
    disaster for India.
  • US counter-offer the Kitty Hawk (1960) also
    free, plus a big refitting bill and up to 200
    airplanes.
  • The US is not necessarily going to win this.
    Indian Defense establishment has serious
    complaints over American equipment and methods
    40 Year old USS Trenton (1968), rebaptized INS
    Jalasha trouble.

16
Russia again the (new) enemy of the US ?
  • It was fm S.o.D. Donald Rumsfeld and his neo-con
    coterie, who had designated China as the main
    future adversary of the US.
  • His successor Robert Gates is refocussing on
    Russia Putins Imperial Restoration as the
    main threat to US global dominance.
  • US priority is to marginalize Russia from India.
  • This years US Annual Threat Assessment indicates
    that US-Russia relations will become more
    confrontational.
  • US priorities are to dilute Sino-Russian and
    Indo-Russian strategic cooperation

17
Russia, India and Central Asia
  • In 2002, India undertook to renovate an old base
    at Ayni in Tajikistan and wanted to set up its
    own military outpost there.
  • During the 1990s India and Tajikistan both
    supported the Northern Alliance against the
    Taliban.
  • Recently the Russians have pressurized the Tajiks
    to refuse Indian deployment and even access to
    Ayni, allegedly because of increasing Russian
    unease about Indias new closeness to the US.
  • India will not have a strategic beachhead in
    Central Asia if it pursues close ties with the
    US.
  • It also serves as a warning to India Dont buy
    too much American !

18
Gwadar, Pakistan New
focal point for strategic rivalry between the US,
China and India
  • China and the US have gotten into a major contest
    for the Gwadar port in Pakistan.
  • China partly financed Gwadars construction in
    response to the American presence in Afghanistan
    and Pakistan, and to monitor US activity in the
    Middle East, Indian naval movements in the
    Arabian Sea, and future Indo-US maritime
    cooperation in the Indian Ocean.
  • China has so far paid 200 m of the 1.16 bn
    cost of Gwadar.
  • Gwadar is on Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast, 72 km
    from Iran. It is near the mouth of the Persian
    Gulf and 400 km from the Strait of Hormuz,
    through which 40 of the worlds oil passes.
  • China has put together a string of pearls from
    the Gulf to South-China. Gwadar is the
    westernmost pearl which should also help
    transform the economy of its landlocked Xinjiang
    Region.

19
From Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard
American Primacy and its Geostrategic
Imperatives, Washington DC, 1997
20
China A Regional Power with some Global
Influence and the Ambition to become a
Two-Ocean Country
Gwadar
21
How will China view US arming of India,
while being under US-EU Embargo
  • The US has always rejected a policy of
    containment of China, at least publicly.
  • Only Japan under fm. PM Shinzo Abe did and
    appealed to India to join.
  • Australia under the new PM has rejected the idea.
  • So did PM Manmohan Singh on his recent visit to
    China
  • US relations with China, unlike those with India
    are of a global strategic dimension.
  • Ecnomically, the two are interdependent and
    coexist in a Balance of Financial terror with a
    threat of MAED.
  • Any containment, even disguised, or congagement
    (sweet and sour) is inoperable.

22
The EU-China Strategic Partnership
  • The EU and China are mainly trade- and investment
    partners. The EUs longterm goal is to
    socialize China into the international system
    by helping it to improve its governance, legal
    system, business-culture.
  • Worried about US interventionism / unilateralism
    Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq China lured the
    EU in 2003 into a strategic partnership.
    Condition was that the EU lifted the 1989 Arms
    Embargo.
  • The US and many Europeans figured that China was
    trying to split the trans-Atlantic connection and
    use Europe as a counterweight to the US in search
    of multipolarity.

23
Will the EU gravitate back to the US or expand
its Strategic Partnership with China ?
  • The EU has better relations with the US and with
    China than the US and China have with each other
    but has it done much with the leverage that this
    entails ?
  • Educated Chinese consider the EU as weak,
    inconsistent, protectionist and falling in line
    with the US too often.
  • The US and the EU still see eye to eye on many
    issues regarding China, e.g. human rights,
    Chinas close energy-supply relations with rogue
    regimes Burma, Iran, Sudan, Uzbekistan,
    Zimbabwe, trade issues, IPR-violations, etc.
  • It is still quite conceivable that trans-Atlantic
    links will regain momentum, particularly in the
    post Bush era and will maintain their precedence
    over Europes halting strategic partnership with
    China.

24
Sino-European Rivalry in Africa leads to closer
trans-Atlantic Ties
  • At the EU-China Summit in Helsinki, the
    EU criticized China for its close
    relations with Sudan. China abstained in the UN
    Security Council vote authorising the transition
    from an AU to a UN force in Darfur. China trades
    oil for arms with Sudan.
  • After entering Africa, Chinese enterprises are
    much more adroit in operating in Africa than
    European ones, and Europeans feel that many of
    their interests in Africa have been squeezed
    out by China.
  • As a result European countries are becoming more
    and more anxious. Europe feels more and more that
    it cannot deal with the Chinese colossus and that
    it will be increasingly marginalized unless it
    gets closer to the United States.

25
Is there a EU-China Strategic Partnership without
Traditional Hard Security ?
  • China has many strategic partnerships, but they
    are more symbolical than substantial.
  • However, China still attaches importance to a
    European role in the stabilization of Eurasia,
    where you have an expanding EU and NATO in
    Europe, large pockets of instability on the
    Balkans, the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia.
    According to the Chinese, the EU, and in
    particular/OSCE is very helpful in dialogues on
    confidence-building, peace-making and
    stabilization.
  • China is neutral on the issue of NATO accession
    of Ukraine and Georgia and still resists Russias
    request for closer military cooperation, e.g. in
    the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Russia
    advocates collective security for SCO, but China
    only cooperative security anti-terrorism,
    anti-extremism and special dialogues on
    energy-security.

26
Is there a US-China-India Triangle ?
  • According to a Foreign Affairs adviser of Senator
    McCain, Ashley Tellis, there is not. The US will
    not consult with China or inform it about
    developments in its relations with India.
  • According to a seasoned middle-of-the-road
    Washington China-insider, Harry Harding, there
    definitely is. Actions of either of the three
    have significant impact on the other two.
    Question is what form it is going to take.
  • India has played China card with US very
    effectively since 1998. After a while China said
    Why dont you talk directly to us ?
  • Neo-cons in both the US and India are not too
    happy about that. A close US-India alignment
    against China is not going to happen.
  • India and China are congaging each other.
    (Tellis)
  • They cooperate on global trade and other issues
    and compete for strategic influence and
    energy-resources in countries such as Burma,
    Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia.

27
Conclusions
  • US-China relations will always zig-zag, but the
    two are economically and financially
    interdependent Siamese Twins -- to such a
    degree that war and conflict have become
    inconceivable (MAED !).
  • China will be the competitor of the US at the
    upper, bipolar level of a multi-tiered world. The
    other big players the EU, Russia, India and Japan
    will at the multilateral level selectively side
    with either of the two.
  • The US needs an enemy to keep feeding its
    colossal Military Industrial Complex. Russia
    may be designated the (potential, future) enemy
    (again) rather than China.
  • Trans-Atlantic relations will probably improve on
    a number of issues, including China but the US
    and the EU will strongly disagree about Russia.
  • West-Europe (the EU Norway and Switzerland) may
    in the end be closer to Russia than to the US
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