Alliance for Global Sustainability

1
Alliance for Global Sustainability
2
Table of Contents

• Mathis Wackernagel Global Footprint Network
• Christian Azar Turning the Tide
• Dennis Meadows Limits to Growth
• The Spanish Pathway
• Conclusions

3
Disclaimer

• This report contains some material taken from the
  proceedings of the AGS Conference. Those slides
  are interspersed with material produced by me.
• Since the proceedings were only published in PDF
  format, all material taken from the proceedings
  has been included in pixel graphics, i.e. by
  capture and paste.
• The material pasted from other documents is
  clearly marked by hyperlinks.
• The typeset text is all mine.
• Especially, since the material from the Spanish
  pathway was not included in the proceedings, that
  material (or rather, the interpretation thereof)
  is all mine.
• Finally and most importantly, the conclusions
  presented on the last page of this document are
  not official conclusions reached by the
  conference, but rather, they are my personal
  conclusions, for which I carry sole
  responsibility.

4
Global Footprint NetworkMathis Wackernagel
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
The Good News

• It takes relatively little additional resources
  to dramatically increase the quality of life of
  the poor nations.

8
(No Transcript)
9
Why is the European Gradient Steeper?

• It is steeper, because we live more wastefully.
• The poor nations use their few resources in an
  almost optimal fashion. They cannot afford to
  waste anything.
• We dont think much about how we might use our
  resources more efficiently.

• We heat our houses to high temperature values,
  while keeping the windows open.
• We buy food that we dont need.
• We maintain secondary homes that we dont need.

10
(No Transcript)
11
No Strings Attached

• The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates consume
  simply because they can, without increasing their
  quality of life any further.
• It is human nature to think first about
  themselves individually, and only later about the
  species as a whole.
• Humans are constantly in competition with each
  other. They increase their feeling of
  self-worth by taking something away from
  another human being.
• Example Easter Islands.
• If we want to survive as a species, while keeping
  up a decent quality of life, we must learn to
  become

not Berliners, but Cubans.
12
The Bad News

• Becoming Cubans wont happen on its own.
• If the Cubans were given a choice, they would
  gladly vote to become the 51st State in the Union
  if only they could drive around in these
  sinfully gorgeous SUVs, heat their homes in the
  winter to 24oC, while cooling them down in the
  summer to 18oC.
• We achieve the transition either by regulations
  or the planet will achieve it for us, probably in
  ways that we wont like a bit.

13
More Bad News

• Every species outgrows its resources over time.
• A population of lab rats will stop reproducing
  only when there is no longer enough food for all
  of them.
• Populations are naturally controlled by hunger
  and disease, not by living standard.
• Whereas humans individually (on a local scale)
  are capable of behaving in a civilized way and
  helping each other, there has been no sign so far
  that humanity, as a species (on a global scale),
  behaves any differently from lab rats.

14
Footprint vs. Biocapacity
15
Global Ecological Balance Sheet(in global
hectares/person, 2003 data)
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
Turning the TideChristian Azar
19
(No Transcript)
20
CO2 EmissionsEurope (with Kyoto) and U.S.
(without Kyoto)
21
Words and Deeds

• Although the EU signed the Kyoto agreement
  whereas the U.S. did not, their increase in CO2
  emissions over time is approximately the same.
• Switzerland signed the Kyoto agreement.
• What has Switzerland done since then to actually
  curb CO2 emissions?
• Absolutely nothing.
• We talk a lot but the CO2 emissions wont go
  away by talk alone.
• As I shall demonstrate, relying on market forces
  wont make them go away either.

22
CO2 Concentration and Temperature
23
Ice Ages and Temperature
24
Ice Ages and Temperature II
25
Mechanisms for Temperature Changes

• The climate seems to exhibit something like a
  bi-stable behavior with long ice ages (around
  100.000 years) interrupted by short interglacial
  periods (around 10.000 years).
• This behavior can only be explained by positive
  feedback loops and nonlinearities.
• We understand some of the positive feedback
  loops.
• We have no clear understanding of what brings the
  next ice age about (although we have some ideas
  about it).
• We have no understanding whatsoever as to what
  mechanisms end an ice age.

26
Global Warming

• A predicted global warming of 3-5 degrees
  Centigrade within the next 100 years is colossal.
• The difference between current global annual
  temperature averages and ice ages averages is
  only 4oC.
• If the average temperature rises by another 4oC
  above current values, the arctic icecap will
  melt.
• The melting of the icecap will make the oceans
  less salty.
• This could derail the golf stream and bring the
  next ice age about.
• Since we dont really understand yet what we are
  doing it might be a good idea not to do it.

27
(No Transcript)
28
Available Options

• Using less energy (e.g. by thermally insulating
  the houses better) is by far the cheapest, i.e.,
  the most cost-effective option.
• Using other forms of energy is something that we
  should do, but it wont solve the problem in the
  short run.
• Local decentralized solutions are more easily
  realizable than global centralized solutions,
  although the latter may be more cost-effective.
• Carbon capture is a good technology for the
  future for global CO2 management.

29
Can the Problem be Solved?
30
(No Transcript)
31
(No Transcript)
32
(No Transcript)
33
Limits to GrowthDennis Meadows
34
Overview of his Comments
35
Main Contributions
36
Three Types of Policies
37
Energy Gap
38
Easy Problems
39
Difficult Problems
40
Difficult Problems Become Easy with Greater
Time Horizon
41
Why are Many Problems Difficult?

• Let me concretize the nature of difficult
  problems by means of a simple optimization study
  using Forresters world model.
• I chose that model over Meadows newer world
  model, because Forrester published his full model
  in his book World Dynamics, whereas Meadows
  published only the results of his studies in his
  book Limits to Growth.
• The exercise serves to demonstrate why market
  forces alone are likely to drive us down the path
  of overshoot and collapse, rather than down the
  path of a sustainable future.

42
World Model
43
Simulation Results I
44
Simulation Results II
The model shows nicely the limits to growth. The
population peaks at about the year 2020 with a
little over 5 billion people.
45
1st Modification

• Forrester thus proposed to reduce the usage of
  the natural resources by a factor of 4, starting
  with the year 1970.
• This may be just as well. The effect of this
  modification is approximately the same as saying
  that more resources are available than
  anticipated. This is indeed true.
• Now, the resource exhaustion wont be effective
  as a damping factor any longer.

46
Program Modification I

• As we are now modifying a parameter, NRUN, this
  former parameter had now to become a variable.

(I had to extend a few of the function domains to
prevent the assert clauses in the Piecewise
function from killing the simulation.)
47
Simulation Results III
48
Optimization

• We now want to optimize the consumption of
  natural resources after the year 1970.
• To this end, we shall need a performance index.
  What is good, is a high value of the minimal
  quality of life after the year 2000 (optimizing
  the past doesnt make much sense). What is bad,
  is a die-off of the population.
• Accordingly, we modify the program once more.
  This is all done in the equation window.

49
Program Modification II
50
Simulation Results IV

• The first two simulations are plagued by massive
  die-off. The others are fine.
• Yet, in the short run, those solutions that will
  give us bad performance (die-off) exhibit the
  best performance.

51
Discussion

• The example shows what Dennis Meadows calls a
  difficult problem.
• Markets forces focus on short-term optimization.
  Industrial decision makers hardly ever look
  beyond 2 years.
• Consequently, they will most likely favor a
  solution that will lead to a massive die-off
  further down the road (après moi le déluge!).
• Easter Islands all over again ...
• According to Dennis Meadows, most problems
  related to sustainability issues are difficult
  problems.

52
The Spanish Pathway

• On Wednesday afternoon, after the international
  AGS meeting had ended, a separate Spanish AGS
  meeting was held (in Spanish).
• I participated in that meeting also, as I was
  interested in hearing the Spanish viewpoint.

53
The Facts

• Between 1990 and 2004, the Spanish CO2 emissions
  increased by 46.
• 35 of all Spanish CO2 emissions are attributed
  to the building industry.
• In the same time frame, the construction of new
  primary homes grew by 30. The construction of
  new secondary homes grew by 52.
• For this reason, the building industry is viewed
  as the single most important culprit in causing
  the additional CO2 emissions.
• Assuming a life span of 50 years for a building,
  the CO2 emissions produced in constructing that
  building contribute roughly 50 to the overall
  CO2 emissions generated over the entire life span
  of the building.

54
The Proposed Solution

• The Spanish AGS researchers invited CEOs of
  Spanish companies related to the building
  industry to a meeting to discuss, how the CO2
  emissions caused by the building industry may be
  curbed.
• If these emissions could be significantly
  reduced, the overall emissions would decrease as
  well. At least, that was the theory.

55
Problems

• The problem with this approach is that the
  different sectors of the industry are strongly
  interlinked.
• The building industry doesnt necessarily require
  much fossil fuels they require a lot of energy.
• If electricity becomes cheaper, theyll switch
  over to using electricity, thereby making the
  building industry look much cleaner while
  leaving it up to the power companies to decide
  how they are going to produce the additional
  electricity that is now being required.
• The power companies will most likely meet the
  requirements by burning more fossil fuels.

56
Analyzing the Observations

• In the time span between 1990 and 2004, the
  Spanish stock market grew by roughly 46.
• Hence the average person had 46 more money to
  spend, or rather reinvest.
• The people need to reinvest their money somehow.
  Either they invest it themselves (e.g. by
  constructing a weekend home), or they give it to
  a bank to invest it for them (e.g. by lending
  money to a home builder).
• The investment consumes roughly 46 additional
  energy.
• The production of that additional energy is
  accompanied by roughly 46 additional CO2
  emissions.

57
Conclusions

• If we want to reduce the CO2 emissions, we have
  no choice but to use less energy, at least in the
  short run.
• The only meaningful way to accomplish this is by
  adding a massive CO2 removal tax on the use of
  fossils fuels.
• This tax will slow down the economy. It will
  make us all poorer in the short run (a difficult
  problem according to Dennis Meadows), but it
  will accomplish the goal of reducing CO2
  emissions.
• The tax will make alternate energy sources (like
  solar power plants) more attractive, thereby
  increasing the rate of their introduction.
• The tax will also make us more conscious of the
  indirect cost of burning fossil fuels. Hence
  each of us is more likely to help our common goal
  by using less energy.