Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis

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Institute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of
California, Davis
Future of Corn Ethanol Yellow is green? UC Davis
Book Project Daniel Sperling Professor and
Director November 6, 2006



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• Michael Pollan expressed concerns about the
  industrialization of corn. He expressed
  skepticism about its use for ethanol, but did not
  pursue the question very deeply.
• My goal
• 1) What is the status of corn ethanol.
• 2) What are the pros and cons of using corn to
  make ethanol?

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General Motors Print Ads (early 2006)
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Every US presidential candidate as far back as I
can remember has endorsed corn ethanol.
President Bushs 2006 State of the Union

• America is addicted to oil The best way to
  break this addiction is through technology ... We
  must change how we power our automobiles ...
  We'll also fund additional research in
  cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not
  just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks,
  or switch grass. (Applause.)

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7.5 billion gallons mandated for 2012
,
Earth-Policy.org
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Of the 11.8 Billion Bushels of Corn Produced in
U.S. in 2004, 12 Was Used for Ethanol
Production (16 in 2006)
Source ERS/USDA, 2004, Feed Outlook (in RFA,
2005) EIA
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Economics of Corn Ethanol Based on Using Protein
in Kernel as Animal Feed (co-product)
(Animal feed mostly for cattle that contributes
revenue of 0.60 per gasoline-gallon-equivalent
- but transport cost is very expensive, and thus
quickly saturates nearby feedlot and dairy farm
markets.)
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Reasons for Ethanols Success in US

• High oil prices
• High octane (to enhance gasoline)
• Strong political support in farm states
• Rules requiring oil companies to use ethanol and
  to oxygenate the gasoline
• Corn lobby was able to overcome opposition from
  oil companies and California!
• Recent rejection of MTBE as acceptable oxygenate
  additive (leaving only ethanol)
• Large subsidies

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Substantial Biofuel Subsidies in Place in US

• Ethanol
• Federal
• 0.51/gallon
• Various direct and indirect subsidies (small
  biofuel producers, new ag fuel businesses,
  biofuel crop production)
• Brazilian import tariffs
• State
• 22 states provide production incentives
• 32 states provide use incentives

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Does Corn Ethanol Save Oil and GHGs?

Farrell, Plevin, Turner, Jones, OHare Kammen,
Ethanol can contribute to energy and
environmental goals, Science, January 27, 2006.
http//rael.berkeley.edu/EBAMM
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Caution Energy Balance and GHG Analyses of
Biofuels Sensitive to System Boundary Choices
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Agriculture yields continue to grow
Selective breeding to genetic engineering
Corn Yield (T/ha) 1960 2000
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and farming continues to increase efficiency
U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer Has
Risen by 70 in The Past 35 Years
Based on historical USDA data results are 3-year
moving averages
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and processing technology and efficiency also
continue to improve
Source From DOE/Argonne - discussions with
ethanol plant designers, recent USDA data, and
other reported data.
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But Even With Many Efficiency Improvements, Corn
Etoh Has Small GHG Benefits

• Our best point estimate for average performance
  today is that corn ethanol reduces GHG emissions
  only moderately, by about 13. Delucchis (2006)
  latest point estimate is 2.

Source Alex Farrell et al, 2006
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Corn Ethanol Is Fairly Expensive to Produce
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Ethanol Fuel Prices Soared and Are Now Tumbling
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Pros and Cons of Corn Ethanol

• Pro
• Boosts corn prices and stimulates rural
  development
• Reduces oil imports
• Easier to implement than battery EVs and hydrogen
• Starts the transition to alternative fuels
• Con
• Relatively high cost
• Large land and water requirements
• Land-related environmental impacts (soil erosion,
  water/chemical runoff)
• No air quality benefits
• Only minor reduction in GHGs
• Boosts food prices (food vs fuel issue) (grain
  required to fill a 25-gallon SUV gas tank with
  ethanol could feed one person for a year)
• Limited opportunities in most parts of world
  (Japan, EU, China)

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Many Different Biofuels and Biofuel Feedstocks
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Prominent Biofuels Pathways

• Fermentation of sugar/starch materials (ethanol)
  what we do now
• Corn in US, with co-product used for animal feed
• Sugar in Brazil, with bagasse used for energy
• Lignicellulose (for ethanol, methanol,
  petroleum-like liquids, gases)
• Waste from forests, sawmills, etc
• Crop residues (corn stover, rice straw, etc)
• Woody material (wood farms)
• Grasses
• Oils to replace diesel
• Waste oils (frying oil, animal fats)
• Oil seeds and algae (rapeseed provides 7 times
  greater yield/acre than corn, and palm oil
  provides 40 times greater yield).
• Many new thermochemical and biological techniques
  under development to increase feedstock yields
  and conversion efficiencies, and to utilize
  multiple products in bio-refineries (fiber, food,
  chemicals, energy).

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Many Different Fuels Can Be Made From Many
Different Forms of Biomass In Many Different Ways
Biological Conversion5
Chemical Conversion
Thermochemical Conversion
Sugar Starches(Agricultural crops)
Ligno-cellulosic (All sources)
Landfill Gas Biogas
Ligno-cellulosic (All sources, including coal)
Bio-oils (Waste oils/fats and oilseed crops)
Feedstock
Fermentationof sugars
Cellulose-to-sugars, thenfermentation
Anaerobicdigestion, cleaning, separation
Gasification/syngasprocessing
Pyrolysis, thermal depolymerization
upgrading
Trans-esterification
Conversion Refining
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Synthetic crude, Biogasoline, Biodiesel
Fischer- Tropsch liquids Mixed alcohols1
DME2 Ethanol3 Methanol Hydrogen
Pipeline quality gas CNG LNG Hydrogen
(via reforming)
PrimaryEnergyProducts
1. Via catalytic synthesis. 2. Dimethylether. 3.
Via syngas fermentation. 4. Pyrolysis oils
require substantial upgrading before they can be
used for transportation applications (e.g.,
before they can be processed in a conventional
refinery). It is more likely they would undergo
more modest upgrading for use as boiler fuel or
in a stationary IC engine or gas turbine. 5. Also
includes direct microbial conversion of sunlight
to hydrogen.
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Much Biomass Available to Make Fuels

• Source USDA, USDOE Billion Ton Vision Report
• of GGE calculation is based on a future 200
  billion GGE demand per year (currently 173B)
• Criteria Biomass is accessible by road,
  sensitive areas excluded, largely ignores
  economic considerations and competing uses for
  biomass (other forms of energy and bio-based
  products)

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Corn Ethanol is not Green, But Does it Set the
Stage for Other (Greener) Biofuels?!

• Conditions drivers for new fuels
• Conditions politicians/regulators for new fuels
• But
• If biofuel of the future may not be ethanol, then
  
• Introduction of flex fuel cars is wasted (or
  worse because car companies get special fuel
  credits)
• Creation of separate fuel distribution system for
  ethanol is wasted
• What would Michael Pollan say?
• What do we say?

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Thank You