Forest simulation models in Slovenia: main developments and challenges

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COST ACTION FP0603 Forest models for research
and decision support in sustainable forest
management

• Forest simulation models in Slovenia main
  developments and challenges
• WG1

1st Workshop and Management Committee
Meeting.Institute of Silviculture, BOKU.8-9 of
May 2008Vienna, Austria
by Tom Levanic, Slovenian Forestry Institute
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Main features of Slovenia forests

• Forest cover (total/share)
• 1.2 mio hectares / 60 (surface is increasing
  !!!)
• Growing stock, annual growth and cuts (data
  2003)
• 286 mio m3 (248 m3/ha) / 7,29 mio m3 (6.1 m3/ha)
  / 2.72 mio m3 (39)
• Main species
• Beech, Silver fir, Norway spruce, Oaks, Mapel,
  Ash, Pines
• Main non-wood products and services
• Fungi
• Hunting
• Different forest functions water and air
  quality, recreation, ...
• Main risks
• Forest fires, insect outbreaks, increasing
  drought periods, agriculture (in lowlands)
• Management and silvicultural characteristics
• Sustainable and multipurpose management in
  accrodance with princples of environmental
  protection and natural values

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Basic modelling

• Use of databases, GIS systems and if-then
  relationship, included are DEM, different layers
  (soil type, vegetation cards, stand maps,)
• Modelling of windthrows in two alpine sites
  spatio-temporal analysis
• We do not use models of black box type.

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Forest modelling approaches and trends

• Mechanistic models
• Forest water balance simulation models
• WATBAL (Starr M., METLA, University of Helsinki,
  Finland)
• monthly soil water balance model for forest
  stands
• BROOK90 (Federer R., USDA Forest Service)
• simulation model for evaporation, soil water and
  streamflow
• Models for simulation of carbon and water fluxes
  in forest ecosystems
• GOTILWA (Gracia C./Sabate S./Sanches A., CREAF,
  Barcelona, www.creaf.uab.es/gotilwa/)
• simulates growth processes and how are they
  influenced by climate, stand structure,
  management techniques, soil properties and
  climate change
• CASTANEA (Davi, H./Dufrene, E./Granier, A./Le
  Dantec, V., INRA, France)
• - modeling carbon and water cycles in forests

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Models for predicting risk of hazardsPredictive
model of fire risk in the natural environment
(Kobler and Ogrinc, 2007)

• Daily updated forecasting model of fire occurence
  in natural environment (i.e., forest, shrubs,
  grassland)
• Geographical scope entire Slovenia
• Resolution
• temporal daily
• spatial 1 sq. km.
• Set-up logistic model, based on empyrical data
  of past occurences of forest fires in relation to
  weather (daily metheorological data), vegetation
  status (MODIS satellite data), relief (DTM),
  proximity to settlements and traffic
  infrastructure
• Model has been integrated into a web-based GIS
  decision support system (eGIS-UJME) at the
  Administration for Civil Protection and Disaster
  Relief

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Example prediction of fire risk for April 8, 2003
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Data bases/archives on forest simulation models

• All forest districts are connected into one huge
  information system. All infromation are kept on a
  central server running Oracle.
• Beside this huge amount of data is collected on
  a national level at the SFI monitoring data
  (Level I and II), national inventory data....
• SILVA.SI combined data on stand structure for
  the last 35 years this enables us different
  spatio-temporal analyses unfortunately,
  available only to SFS

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Research highlight
Describe a country research hihlight/finding in
the context of modelling which can be relevant
for other countries
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Brown bear habitat in Slovenia

• (Kobler and Adamic, 2000)

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Optimal Locations for Ecoducts on the Vrhnika
Senožece highway

• (Kobler and Adamic, 2000)

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Future challenges

• Describe the main challenges modelers and
  modelling face in your country so that can
  respond effectively to management or scientific
  questions/problems in your country
• ?

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Innovative references

• List a maximum of 5 references, the most
  innovative ones in your country and that provide
  added value to other countries.

DEBELJAK, Marko, DŽEROSKI, Sašo, JERINA, Klemen,
KOBLER, Andrej, ADAMIC, Miha. Habitat suitability
modeling for red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) in
South-Western Slovenia with classification trees.
Ecol. model.. Print ed., 2001, vol. 138, str.
321-330. COBISS.SI-ID 16056615 tipologija 1.08
-gt 1.01 KOBLER, Andrej. Prostorski model požarne
ogroženosti gozdov Spatial model of forest fire
danger. Zb. gozd. lesar., 2001, št. 66, str.
65-93. COBISS.SI-ID 932518 JERINA, Klemen,
DEBELJAK, Marko, DŽEROSKI, Sašo, KOBLER, Andrej,
ADAMIC, Miha. Modeling the brown bear population
in Slovenia a tool in the conservation
management of a threatened species. Ecol. model..
Print ed., str. 453-469. COBISS.SI-ID 273659
tipologija 1.08 -gt 1.01 KOBLER, Andrej, CUNDER,
Tomaž, PIRNAT, Janez. Modelling spontaneous
afforestation in Postojna area, Slovenia. J. Nat.
Conserv., 2005, vol. 13, str. 127-135, ilustr.
COBISS.SI-ID 1510310 KOBLER, Andrej, DŽEROSKI,
Sašo, KERAMITSOGLOU, Iphigenia. Habitat mapping
using machine learning-extended kernel-based
reclassification of an Ikonos satelite image.
Ecol. model.. Print ed., 2006, vol. 191, no. 1,
str. 83-95, ilustr. COBISS.SI-ID 1591718
tipologija 1.08 -gt 1.01
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Assessment of traditional cultural landscape
visual quality loss due to spontaneous
afforestation of abandoned lands

• Kobler (2002)

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Modelling Spontaneous Afforestation of Abandoned
Farmland in Postojna area

• (Kobler and Cunder, 2005)