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Systems Analysis

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Title: Systems Analysis


1
Systems Analysis
Origin
Approach
People
Applications
Evolution
Evaluation
  • Bhavya Lal

2
Origins
  • developed in the 1950s at the RAND Corporation as
    part of a suite of techniques for supporting
    wartime assessments, in creating a science of
    war
  • to evaluate alternative nuclear weapons scenarios
  • next generation bomber aircraft
  • design of an air defense system
  • subsequently developed as a resource allocation
    methodology
  • publication of the 1960 Economics of Defense
    in the Nuclear Age by Charles Hitch and Roland
    McKean, economists at RAND

3
Approach
  • a rigorous, "rational" means of comparing the
    expected costs, benefits, and risks of
    alternative future systems--such as weapons
    systems--characterized by complex environments,
    large degrees of freedom, and considerable
    uncertainty.
  • the word 'systems' indicates that every decision
    should be considered in as broad a context as
    necessary . . . the word 'analysis' emphasizes
    the need to reduce a complex problem to its
    component parts for better understanding.

4
Methods
  • field quantitative (mathematical modeling) and
    qualitative, but goal is managerial
    decision-making
  • Operations Research
  • Game Theory
  • Probability and Statistics
  • Econometrics
  • Linear/dynamic Programming
  • (and later in social policy analysis)
  • Regression Analysis
  • Survey Research
  • Experimental Design

5
Related Concepts
  • systems engineering (manage large projects),
  • ICBM design and development
  • operations research (analyze military operations)
  • military bombing raids
  • systems analysis (comparison of systems that
    offer alternative solutions to problems)
  • use of long-range bombers vs. ICBMs
  • system dynamics (models for predicting and
    comparing downstream consequences of outcomes of
    alternative policies)
  • SD a part of SA?

6
Proponents
  • Early years Military Applications
  • Charles Hitch
  • RAND and then Asst. Sec. for Defense
  • Alain Enthoven
  • RAND, and then Dep.Asst. Sec. for Defense
  • K. Wayne Smith
  • RAND
  • Robert McNamara
  • Sec of Defense, Kennedy/Johnson, Economist,
    Harvard MBA, Army Statistician, Ford Motor
    Company

7
Early Applications
  • Use by McNamara for streamlining the Department
    of Defense
  • established Office of Systems Analysis at the
    Pentagon
  • brought in the RAND whiz kids
  • approach met stiff opposition but eventually
    pressured the military to learn the methods and
    train their own staff

8
Applications Phase 1 McNamara Revolution
  • McNamara relied heavily on SA to reach several
    controversial weapons decisions
  • canceled the B-70 bomber and vetoed its proposed
    successor RS-70
  • increased focus on faster, less vulnerable and
    less costly ICBMs (rather than manned bombers)
  • terminated the Skybolt project (ballistic missile
    with 1000 nmile range designed for launching from
    B-52 bombers as a defense suppression weapon)
  • initiated and continued the TFX (later F-111
    aircraft) based on SA awarded contract to
    General Dynamics failed project
  • instituted a much-publicized cost reduction
    program which (he reported) saved 14 billion
    from 1961-1966

9
Applications (cont.) Planning, Programming, and
Budgeting
  • McNamara instituted PPBS for
  • planning and reviewing requirements, formulating
    and reviewing multiyear programs, and developing
    the annual budget estimates
  • helping the Air Force manage the enormous costs
    of modern military technologies and weapons
    systems
  • In 1961 the PPBS methodology became one of the
    cornerstones of the "McNamara Revolution" in the
    Department of Defense

10
Evolution of Systems Analysis
  • Early 60s saw migration of primary national
    concerns away from global nuclear warfare toward
    counterinsurgency, limited warfare and social
    revolution
  • Connections between national security and social
    welfare began the next wave of applications in
    1965 President Johnson mandated PPBS use across
    the federal bureaucratic structure.
  • Charles Schultze (1965, Director of the Bureau of
    Budget) transferred PPBS from the Pentagon to
    social welfare agencies (Departments of Health,
    Education and Welfare, Office of Economic
    Opportunity etc)

11
Proponents II
  • Later years Social Reform Analysis
  • Sargent Shriver
  • Task force on anti-poverty programs
  • Charles Schultze
  • Bureau of Budget
  • Henry Rowan
  • RAND
  • Roger Levian
  • RAND and IIASA

12
Applications Phase 2- Policy Analysis
  • Establishment of new institutions for social
    policy analysis the Urban Institute, IIASA, etc
  • Applications
  • health care design and experimental testing of
    school voucher systems
  • education design and experimental testing of
    health insurance systems
  • housing analysis of rent control and the design
    of a housing allowance system
  • design of public systems for transportation,
    water supply and communications
  • international global climate modeling

13
Evaluation
  • fundamentally altered the nature of
    decision-making in the Department of Defense
    (civilianization at DoD).
  • gave rise to a vast market for policy-oriented
    social science research replaced political
    bargaining with technocratic expertise as the
    primary means of policy formulation
  • but in the end, proved too fine-honed, too
    focused on technical and economic factors, to
    respond to the messy, politicized urban problems
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