AQUACULTURAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

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AQUACULTURAL SITUATIONAND OUTLOOK

• TEACH A PERSON HOW TO FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE
• TEACH A PERSON HOW TO GROW FISH -- HE CAN MAKE A
  LIVING ??
• Jerry R. Crews
• Auburn University

SRAOC SEPTEMBER 2002
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WORLD FISHERIES2000
FAO
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FISHERY EXPORTER2000
FAO
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FISHERY IMPORTER2000
FAO
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WORLD SEAFOOD SUPPLY2000
FAO
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WORLD CAPTURE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION
NMFS
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WORLD AQUACULTURE2000
FAO
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U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY1999
NMFS
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U. S. SEAFOOD SUPPLY2001
NMFS
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FISH AND SHELLFISH1970 - 2001
USDA
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U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION
NFI
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2001 U. S. SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION
First Time Tilapia Made Top Ten
NFI
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U.S. Aquaculture Production
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Production States
NORTH CENTRAL
NORTHEASTERN
WESTERN
Perch Striped Bass Tilapia
Trout Salmon Shellfish Striped Bass Tilapia
Salmon Shellfish Striped Bass
Catfish Striped Bass Tilapia Baitfish
SOUTHERN
TROPICAL SUBTROPICAL
Ornamental, Food and Shellfish
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Aquaculture Sales
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U. S. AQUACULTURE VALUE2000
NMFS
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Sales by Aquaculture Category

• Food fish - 70
• Mollusks - 9
• Ornamental fish - 7
• Baitfish - 4
• Crustaceans - 4
• Sport/Game - 1
• Other animal aqua. - 5

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U. S. AQUACULTURE VALUE - 2000
NMFS
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U.S. Catfish Industry
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CONSISTENT PRODUCT
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CATFISH CONSUMPTION
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CATFISH SALES 2001
USDA
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CATFISH ACREAGEAND NUMBER OF FARMS
USDA
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CATFISH ACREAGEAND OPERATION SIZE
USDA
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CATFISH PRODUCTION AND INTENSITY
USDA
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CATFISH PRICES1970 - 2002
USDA and Crews
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CATFISH PRICES1970 - 2002
USDA (82-84 real base)
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5 YR AVG
10 YR AVG
25 YR AVG
2001
There is a strong seasonal aspect to pricing as
seen in the 5, 10 and 25-year average price
received curves above. However, the norm was not
followed in 2001.
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Catfish Price Paid to Producer
2000 price
2001 price
.10 per lb less than 2000 -14
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Catfish Price Paid to Producer
2001 price
2002 price
.11 per lb less than 2001 -17
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Catfish Product Form Sales
The catfish fillet product form is preferred over
other product forms (whole fish, steaks,
nuggets).
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Fresh and Frozen Catfish Products
Over the last 15 years, there has been an ever
widening production difference between frozen and
fresh catfish products. Frozen catfish products
are in higher demand now than ever before with
60 of all catfish products being
frozen. Source USDA Economics and Statistics
System, NASS
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U.S. Catfish Fillet Processing
Over the years, frozen catfish fillets had
increasingly demanded over fresh fillets.
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Imports of Catfish to U.S.
119
139
149
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Industry Response to Imports

• Legislation
• Country of Origin labeling - MS, LA ?
• Removal of Channel Catfish images on import
  packaging - NO
• Seek to have Catfish name removed from
  non-Ictalurid fish species - 1 YEAR BAN, U.S.
• Advertising
• Concentrate US safety/health standards -
  CHEMICALS ?
• Imports are trying to mislead consumers - TCI
• Legal
• Anti-dumping case-CFA PASS THE FIRST HURDLE
• Shrimp/Crawfish Industry - EVALUATING

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U.S. OR VIETNAM?
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Whats Causing Low Catfish Prices?

• Increased Vietnamese frozen fillet imports
• Economic uncertainty
• Stagnant per capita consumption
• On-farm inventories up
• Processing capacity (up)

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U.S. CATFISH INVENTORYJULY 1, 2002 vs 2001


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CATFISH FEED SALES(32 PROTEIN)
TCI and Crews
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U.S. Catfish Round Weight Processed
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Round-weight process has be flat for the last 3
years. Source USDA Economics and Statistics
System, NASS and Crews
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Total Producer Catfish Sales
- 9
Total 2002 producer sales (processed) down 35
million from 2001, down 94million from
2000. Source USDA Economics and Statistics
System, NASS and Crews
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Total Processor Catfish Sales
- 3
Total 2002 processor sales down 21 million from
2001. Source USDA Economics and Statistics
System, NASS and Crews
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US Catfish Fillet Pricethat the Processor
Receives 2000 - 2002FRESH
FROZEN
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PRODUCERS EFFICIENCY

• Processors requiring increased fish size
• 1980s gt 1.00 - 1.25 lb average weight
• 1990s gt 1.25 - 1.50 lb average weight
• 2000s gt 1.50 - 2.00 lb average weight
• Larger fish require longer production cycle
• From 24 months to 36 months (from spawn to
  skillet)
• increased production risks
• increases production costs

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Growing Larger Catfish7,000 Stocking Rate 6 in
Fingerlings
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CATFISH FEED PRICES(32 PROTEIN)
MS
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Fish Price
75 cents/lb
70 cents/lb
65 cents/lb
60 cents/lb
55 cents/lb
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Lower Prices and Net Returns

• The cost to produce U.S. farm-raised catfish is
  in the range of 0.60 - 0.75 / lb
• At the Present Price of 0.50 - 0.60 / lb
• Less efficient farmers will
• Lose money
• May not cover cash and capital costs
• Go belly up
• More efficient farmers will
• Receive a lower profit
• May not cover all variable costs
• Can stay in business in the short-run

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GROWTH IN THE U. S.

• EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AT A SLOWER PACE
• BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT
• PRODUCERS AND PROCESSORS
• ALLIANCE/CONSOLIDATION
• PRODUCER/PROCESSOR/FEEDMILL/GENETICS
• U. S. HAS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
• INDEPENDENT PRODUCERS/PROCESSORS
• FEED GRAINS
• INFRASTRUCTURE
• MARKETS
• ONE BILLION POUNDS BY 2010 ??????????

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AQUACULTURAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

• TEACH A PERSON HOW TO FISH -- HE CAN SURVIVE
• TEACH A PERSON HOW TO GROW FISH -- HE CAN MAKE A
  LIVING ??
• Jerry R. Crews
• Auburn University

SRAOC SEPTEMBER 2002