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Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Election

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Title: Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Election


1
Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Election
  • 59.6

2
Who Voted in 2004?
  • What are benefits of voting?
  • What are costs of voting?
  • 2004 Presidential Election
  • US Census Bureau,
  • Voting and Registration in the Election of
    November 2004

3
Education
4
Income
5
Age
6
Race
7
Employment Status
8
Who Votes?
  • Socioeconomic Status (SES) Explanation
  • voters with higher income and education have the
    civic skills to understand the value of voting,
    the difference between the candidates.
  • Policy Implication

9
Educate Inform
10
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections
11
of Americans Voting in National Elections
12
Voter Turnout in LA Gubernatorial Elections
13
Vote for the Crook, Its Important
14
(No Transcript)
15
Average Voting in National Elections, last 6
election cycles
16
SES Explanation
  • description or explanation
  • Alternative Explanations
  • Policy Implications
  • Political considerations
  • Change the rules, change the electorate
  • Change the electorate, change the outcomes
  • Elected officials make the rules

17
Voter Registration
18
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections
19
(No Transcript)
20
Policy Implications
  • Same Day/Election Day Registration (MN, WI, NH,
    ID, ME, WY)
  • Motor Voter Registration

21
Same Day/Election Day Registration
  • (MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) 5 of 7 top states in
    turnout

22
Source US Census, US Population Survey, 2004
Presidential Election
23
(No Transcript)
24
Least likely to be registered
  • Young, mobile, less affluent, minority
  • Ohio- just adopted same day voter registration
  • 490,000 college students
  • Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner

25
Source Young voters,USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll,
Sept. 18-28, 60, Black, Latino, Sep 13, Gallup
26
Source CNN Exit Polls, 2004 Presidential
Election
27
Motor Voter Registration
  • register by mail, applying for a driver's
    license, at all offices that provide public
    assistance

28
Impact of Motor Voter
  • We find little evidence that early voting
    reforms increase turnout with the exception of
    VBM in Oregon, and then only in presidential
    elections. In midterm elections, none of the
    reforms has a statistically significant impact on
    turnout.

29
Too Many Elections
  • 521,000 elected offices
  • National, state, local, school, library,
    referendums
  • ..\..\toomanyelections.xls

30
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population
Survey, November 2006
31
Why hold elections on Tuesday?
  • National Holiday
  • Mail-in Voting

32
(No Transcript)
33
Electoral System
  • US- first past the post system
  • Europeans- proportional representation
  • Consequences
  • fosters 2 parties
  • hurts smaller parties
  • No pro-life party, green party, or African
    American party
  • 148 candidates in CA recall election 70
    turnout?

34
Lack of Mobilization
  • 1876-1896, turnout in presidential elections
    averaged 80
  • Now, Unprecedented GOTV- 59
  • Does it matter if you vote in New York, Texas, or
    California?

35
(No Transcript)
36
Voter ID Laws
  • GA- voters to present either a driver's license
    or a state-issued photo ID 2005
  • 35 available at DMV

37
Milwaukee Black Voters League Flier
  • if anyone in your family has ever been found
    guilty of anything, even a traffic violation, you
    can't vote in the presidential election. If you
    violate any of these laws you can get ten years
    in prison and your children will get taken away
    from you." 2004

38
Felon Disenfranchisement
39
But
40
Is Internet or E-Voting the solution to declining
turnout?
41
Costs v. Benefits of Voting
  • Costs
  • Registration
  • Hassles
  • Information
  • Solutions
  • Easier registration
  • E vote, mail in ballots
  • Group mobilization
  • Fewer elections
  • Benefits
  • Psychic
  • Policy
  • Solutions
  • Minority voters
  • Conservatives in 98
  • Reduce cynicism about politics
  • Vote matters

42
Should we be concerned that only 50.7 of
Americans voted?
43
low turnout NOT a problem
  • reflects contentment
  • George Will As more people are nagged to the
    polls, the caliber of the electorate declines.
  • no difference between voters and non-voters
    preferences
  • What happens with record turnout?

44
(No Transcript)
45
2 Recent High Turnout Elections
1998 MN Gubernatorial Race
2003 CA Recall Election
46
Low Turnout IS a problem
  • Voting pool is unrepresentative of nation
  • HMO bill of rights vs uninsured

47
(No Transcript)
48
Decline of Social Capital 1970-1995
Worked for political party 7 2.8
Served as officer in club 10 6
Attended Church 42 36
Member of Institute of Architects 41 28
Entertained at home 14 9
Bowled in a league 69/ 1000 31/ 1000
49
TV Usage TV is my primary form of entertainment
Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree
Volunteered 4.1 9.1
Letters written 12 18
Club meetings 5 9
Worked on community project 1.5 3
Gave finger to another driver 3 1.4
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