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EDGE Presentation Feb 6, 2007

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All these journalists can see and tell the world that Iran's activities are ... Lagos, in southern Nigeria, to Kano the commercial hub in the country's north. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: EDGE Presentation Feb 6, 2007


1
EDGE Presentation Feb 6, 2007
  • Local Grameen model
  • World Leaders at G8 summit
  • Iran confrontation update
  • Oil population and donations
  • China in Nigeria and Angola
  • China and railroads
  • Angola in the world politics
  • Developing cartels, OPEC, Diamonds and Cocoa

2
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3
Business training is completed before making
microloan
  • Together with the home building skills the poor
    are taught principles of running a small business
  • This training must be complete before a microloan
    is made.
  • The combination of home ownership and business
    skills help the poor raise themselves from
    poverty.

4
G-8 Leaders at last summit
5
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6
Report adds to urging against attack on
IranFebruary 6, 2007 The Sydney Morning Herald.
  • LONDON Warnings of the dire consequences of
    military confrontation with Iran, and calls for a
    renewed diplomatic effort, are being issued on
    both sides of the Atlantic in a sign of the
    growing anxiety over the prospect of US or
    Israeli action.
  • A coalition of foreign policy advisers,
    humanitarian organisations and peace groups was
    expected to issue a report overnight arguing that
    an attack on Iran, reportedly being contemplated
    by the US and Israel as a means of slowing down
    Iran's nuclear program, would backfire
    disastrously
  • Sir Richard Dalton, Britain's former ambassador
    to Tehran, supported the report's conclusions.
  • "Diplomacy has not been exhausted," he said.
    "Military action should be a last resort, used in
    self defence against an imminent threat, and we
    have not reached that position yet."

7
An Overview of Iran
Mehdi Jahanbakht E397A Ethics of Development
in a Global Environment Professor B.
Lusignan Stanford University December 2005
8
The presentation will cover
  • A general overview of IRAN
  • including Geography, Culture, Religion,
    Politics,

- IRANs Economy
  • Recent Nuclear Issues
  • Including possible solution

9
Overview of IRAN Geography
Land 1,648,000 square Km 17th large country
(slightly larger than Alaska)
Strategic Location on the Persian Gulf vital
pathways for crude
oil transport
10
Overview of IRAN Rich Culture
An Ancient Empire of Aryans 2500 years of
kingdom
Therefore Iran has huge historical resources like
Persepolis
1400 years of Islamic history ? Rich Islamic
traditions
11
Overview of IRAN Politics
IRAN is the only country in Middle East which is
politically completely independent from USA
Revolution in 1979 led to Islamic Republic of
Iran
USA was thrown out of Iran
12
Overview of IRAN Natural Resources
Net Oil Production 4.0 million bbl/day 4th
largest Reserved Oil 131 billion bbl 3rd
largest Natural Gas 2nd largest reserve
Religion 98 Muslim mostly Shiite
13
Overview of IRAN Economy
Irans Economy depends mostly on OIL
Inflation Rate 15.5 (12th highest inflation)
GDP 478 billion 14th largest GDP
Public Debt 27 of GDP (21st in lowest public
debt)
14
IRANs Nuclear case
- IRANs Nuclear case started in 1974 after
Irans Oil Energy crisis with technological and
political support of USA
- 1979 Revolution and Iran-Iraq war stopped
Irans program for a long time
- Until 2002, US put pressure to Iran for any
Nuclear activity and Iran was under sanction
about Nuclear Technology
15
- Until 2002, US put pressure to Iran for any
Nuclear activity and Iran was under sanction
about Nuclear Technology
In 2002, Iranian Opposition reveal Irans hidden
part of Nuclear Technology.
16
WHY SECRET PROGRAM AT ALL?
This Technology was produced against US will and
against all US sanctions so had to be kept secret
17
IRAN closed its Nuclear facilities for about two
years (completely shut down)
IRAN accepted an additional protocol that allows
IAEA agents to have ANY investigation at ANY time.
There has been complains from Iran that some US
spies have requested to visit Irans restricted
facilities arguing that they suspect if there is
any nuclear program over there. NO Nuclear
activities have never been found in any of the
mentioned sites of course.
18
Recent News (Dec 2005)
Recently Iran complained from the long time that
their facilities have been shut. They started one
of them which immediately boomed in all news
agencies the next day.
Currently Iran wants its right as a member of
NPT treaty which gives the right to all members
to purify Uranium in their country
19
A Suggested Solution
Iran, USA, IAEA can resolve this issue?
IAEA
IRAN
USA
Most probably not
20
Iran, EU, IAEA can resolve this issue?
A possible solution might come along in
collaboration with European Union
21
Sample Work Palestine Gaza Border
One Sample of Europe, being useful in resoling a
conflict is their collaboration in Opening Rafah
border in Gaza
22
Non-aligned envoys tour Iran nuclear siteSun,
Feb 4, 2007

Iran showed UN surveillance cameras to envoys
from the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of developing
nations during a tour of a nuclear site
yesterday, in a bid to demonstrate openness about
its atomic programme. The six NAM diplomats,
accredited to the UN nuclear watchdog, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
visited the site near the central Iranian city of
Isfahan that converts uranium ore into feedstock
uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas. About 90 Iranian
and foreign journalists were also shown round the
site, where employees in white overalls and face
masks feed uranium "yellow cake" into a
conversion line. "All these journalists can see
and tell the world that Iran's activities are
peaceful," Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's IAEA
envoy, said during the tour. He said the trip
showed Iran's "transparency" and pointed out two
IAEA cameras to monitor work in a room were UF6
is produced at the site, situated in a barren
area southeast of Isfahan and surrounded by
anti-aircraft guns.
23
Non-aligned envoys tour Iran nuclear siteSun,
Feb 4, 2007 cont
  • The envoys, who stay in Iran until tomorrow, are
    not due to visit the Natanz uranium enrichment
    site where UF6 gas is fed into centrifuges to
    make power plant fuel or, if greatly enriched,
    material for warheads. Alongside the Cuban envoy,
    the group includes ambassadors from Egypt,
    Malaysia, Algeria and Sudan, and a Syrian
    representing the Arab League.
  • NAM ambassador in Vienna, where the IAEA is
    based, had said before the visit that the trip
    was a "publicity exercise". The IAEA says it
    needs more information about Iran's atomic work
    before it can give a clean bill of health and has
    urged Iran to reconsider a move to bar 38 out of
    200 inspectors whose role is to check whether
    materials are diverted to bomb making.
  • President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted by Fars
    News Agency as saying Feb. 11 would be a day to
    "prove the Iranian nation's obvious right" to
    nuclear technology. He also said Iran would
    shortly announce "great achievements" but did not
    give details.
  • The United States has been ratcheting up pressure
    on Tehran to halt its nuclear work by imposing
    sanctions on two big Iranian banks and sending a
    second aircraft carrier to the Gulf. Washington
    has said it wants diplomacy to end the standoff
    but has not ruled out military action if that
    fails.

24

25
Off the Rails Big Oil, Big Brother Win Big in
the State of the Unionby Greg Palast 23 January,
2006
  • Most pundits concentrated on Iraq and wacky
    health insurance stuff. But that's just bubbles
    and blather. The real agenda is in the small
    stuff. The little razors in the policy apple, the
    nasty little pieces of policy shrapnel that whiz
    by between the appearances of the Presidential
    tongue.
  • There were several other little IEDs (improvised
    execrable policy devices) planted in the State of
    the Union. Did you catch the one about doubling
    the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? If you're
    unfamiliar with the SPR, it is supposed to be the
    stash of oil we keep in case the price of crude
    gets too high.
  • Well, the price of oil has been horribly high but
    Dick Cheney, the official who sits on the
    Reserve's spigots, has refused to release the oil
    into the market.
  • Instead of unleashing the Reserve and busting Big
    Oil's price gouging Bush will double the Reserve,
    which will require buying three-quarters of a
    billion barrels of oil. This is a nice 40
    billion pay-out to Big Oil from the US Treasury.
    Compare this to the President's health insurance
    plan which will be "revenue neutral" -- that is,
    have a net investment of zero.
  • But the 40 billion in loot the oilmen will get
    from us taxpayers for doubling the Reserve is
    nothing compared to the boost in the worldwide
    price of crude caused by this massive, mad
    purchase. While the Congressional audience didn't
    even bother polite applause for the reserve
    purchase plan, there's no doubt they were
    whooping it up in Saudi Arabia. Clearly, the
    state of the Saudi-Bush union is still pretty
    good.

26
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27
  • OPECOrganization of Petroleum Exporting
    Countries (OPEC) members include Algeria,
    Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria,
    Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and
    Venezuela.

28
Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005 Country Net
Oil Imports (million barrels per day)1) United
States 12.42) Japan 5.23) China 3.14) Germa
ny 2.45) South Korea 2.26) France 1.97) India
1.78) Italy 1.69) Spain 1.610) Taiwan 1.0
Total World about 35 million barrels/day
OPECTable includes all countries that imported
at least 1 million bbl/d in 2005.
Just how much investment could come from OPEC
Nations?
BP Statistical Review2 Oil Gas
Journal3 World Oil4 World Total ww 1,201.332
1,317.447 1,119.615 Billion Barrels
29
A Modest Proposal
  • Assume 4 of Overcharge for oil goes to
    development resources of OPEC Development Fund
  • Assume overcharge is 50 - 25 25/barrel
  • i.e. 1/barrel for development funds
  • 35 Million barrels/day imports gives 35x106x365x
    1.00
  • 12.8x109 12.8 Billion/yr
  • Worlds Poor population gt 1.6 Billion1.6x109
  • Annual investment for poor 8/year
  • Typical Rural Community of 10,000 would get
    80,000 investment /year from OPEC surcharge

30
One generation to go before alternative fuels
  • How long is remaining at current consumption of
    80 million barrels/day?
  • Total reserves estimate 1,300 billion barrels.
  • 1300x109/80x106x365 44 years
  • With 118 million barrels/day.. 30 years

31
Populationin Africa and Latin America is about
1.6 billions World growth below
32
NIGERIAOil-Hungry China to Help Revamp Railway
Toye OloriKAJOLA VILLAGE, Nigeria, Feb 3 (IPS) -
China is extending a hand into the Nigerian
transport sector in a deal to help the Nigerian
government put back on track the country's
foundering railway system.
  • China's offer of a grant and expertise comes
    after the formulation of a 25-year comprehensive
    railway development plan that includes redesign
    of the existing railway tracks and expansion of
    the lines to new areas across Nigeria.
  • In October 2006, the government signed a 2.5
    billion U.S. dollar loan facility with China, a
    substantial part of which will be used to finance
    the refurbishment of the railway system.
  • A major portion of the railway expansion project
    will be carried out by China's Civil Engineering
    Construction Company (CCECC), which was also
    invited in 1996 by the late General Sani Abacha's
    regime to revamp the railway. The regime was
    widely reviled at that time over the execution of
    Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other Ogoni environmental
    activists.
  • In all, an estimated 7,800 kilometres of standard
    gauge railway network, to connect all 36 state
    capitals and major cities in the country, will be
    built by concession-holders, which then will be
    responsible for infrastructure upgrades,
    expansion and maintenance, and train operations.
  • The CCECC is handling the first phase of the
    project, put at 8.3 billion dollars. Some of the
    phases will be financed through private investors
    over a period of time. The entire railway
    modernisation and expansion project is estimated
    to cost over 30 billion dollars.

33
Beyond China's year of Africa January 22nd, 2007
Godwin NNANNA, Accra
  • Nigeria, despite its huge human and natural
    endowments, still have majority of its 140
    million population grappling with extreme
    poverty.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa's first UN Secretary General,
    Kofi Annan, returns to Ghana utterly bugged by
    the fact that despite UN's declaration of the
    decade he presided over as its Decade for the
    Eradication of Poverty, not much of progress was
    made in reducing extreme poverty in Africa' as
    the latest Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
    Monitoring Report indicates.
  • China gave a new impetus to its relationship with
    Africa when, at the beginning of the year, it
    dubbed 2006 the "year of Africa." Unlike many
    international declarations, evidence abounds that
    proves the impact of that statement.
  • In 2006, Nigeria alone benefited from over 3
    dollars billion of Chinese investment in its oil
    and gas sector, and is looking forward to another
    investment of US4 billion in its railways that
    would help revamp a sector that has remained
    moribund since the 1960s. China Civil Engineering
    Construction Corporation (CCECC) is to build a
    1,315 kilometre railway from Lagos, in southern
    Nigeria, to Kano the commercial hub in the
    country's north. CCECC president Lin Rongxin said
    the five-year project will generate employment
    for 50,000 Nigerian young people.

34
Beyond China's year of Africa cont January
22nd, 2007 Godwin NNANNA, Accra
  • In Angola, an oil boom that might see the country
    overtake Nigeria as the continent's biggest oil
    producer is already underway, and China is at the
    forefront of this revolution. With increased
    investment and aid from Beijing, Angola is
    rebuilding its infrastructure on a massive scale,
    most of which had long been overwhelmed by an
    upsurge in the population.
  • Angola currently produces an average of 1.4
    million barrels per day (bpd).
  • But some experts have projected that the
    country's production will hit 3.4 million bpd by
    2011. Angola joined the Organisation of Petroleum
    Exporting Countries (OPEC) on January 1, 2007, as
    the second member from sub-Saharan Africa and the
    first new member since Nigeria joined in 1971
    (Gabon had joined the cartel in 1975 but pulled
    out). Angola's new profile is one of the success
    stories of China's year of Africa.
  • Observers say the massive Chinese investment into
    infrastructure in Angola and other countries in
    Africa may create atmosphere for development.
  • "Africa's need for infrastructure investments,
    estimated at 20-billion a year for the next
    decade, is understood and supported by China.
    This is an area considered too risky by many of
    Africa's traditional partners," says Ngozi
    Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria's former minister of
    finance.

35
Another CCECC for rural farming

36
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37
  • Jonas Malheiro Savimbi (August 3, 1934February
    22, 2002) was a rebel leader in Angola who
    founded the UNITA movement in 1966, and
    ultimately proved a central figure in 20th
    century Cold War politics.
  • Savimbi's war against Angola's Marxist government
    became a sub-plot to the Cold War, with both
    Moscow and Washington viewing the conflict as
    important to the global balance of power. In
    1985, with the backing of the Reagan
    administration, Jack Abramoff and other U.S.
    conservatives organized the Democratic
    International in Savimbi's base in Jamba,
    Angola8. The meeting included most of the
    anti-communist guerrilla leaders of the Third
    World, including Savimbi, Nicaraguan contra
    leader Adolfo Calero, and Abdurrahim Wardak, then
    leader of Afghanistan's mujahideen who now serves
    as Afghanistan's Defense Minister.

38
  • José Eduardo dos Santos (born August 28, 1942 in
    Luanda)1 is the current President, Head of
    Government, and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed
    Forces of Angola.
  • Eduardo's father was a construction worker. While
    he was studying in school, he joined the MPLA in
    1956 thereby starting his political career. Due
    to the repression of the colonial government, Dos
    Santos went into self-exile in France in 1961. He
    later moved to the Republic of the Congo. From
    there he collaborated with the MPLA, and soon
    became the vice-president. To continue with his
    education he moved, once again, to the former
    USSR where he received an engineering degree from
    Azerbaijan Oil and Chemistry Institute.
  • Dos Santos announced in 2001 that he would step
    down at the next presidential election.2
    However, in December 2003, he was reelected as
    head of the MPLA,3 and it is widely believed
    that he will be the party's candidate in the next
    presidential election. It was thought that this
    might be held in 2006,4 and then that it might
    occur in 2007, but in December 2006 it was
    announced that the next presidential election
    would be held in 2009.5In November 2006, dos
    Santos helped to found the African Countries
    Diamond Producers Association. It is an
    organization of approximately 20 African nations
    founded to promote market cooperation and foreign
    investment in the African diamond industry.6


39
African Countries Diamond Producers Association

African Countries Diamond Producers Association
(ADPA) is an international organization in Africa
designed to strengthen influence on the world
diamond market as well as harmonize legislation
and encouraging foreign investment in the
industry. One of it's main concerns is the
continued illegal sales of blood diamonds. The
organization was formed on 4 November 2006 as
part of an initiative spearheaded by Angolan head
of State, President José Eduardo Dos Santos.
Angola is the interim executive secreteariat as
well as home to the organization's headquarters.
40
Introducing Agnes Abrafi and Erica Kyere, Kuapa
Kokoo Fairtrade Cocoa Producers Cooperative, Ghana
The message I have for our guys in New Zealand
is to patronise the Fair Trade chocolate. They
should buy a lot of Fair Trade chocolate so that
we farmers here will get premium to support our
income. Through this we can send our children to
school through this we can live in good houses
through this we can take care or ourselves and
our family and through this we can contribute to
the development of the world. This is the message
I have for our friends in New Zealand   Eli
Santana, cocoa farmer, Ghana
41
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