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The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture

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Title: The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture


1
The Human PopulationPatterns, Processes, and
ProblematicsLecture 18 Ch13 Population Policy
  • Paul Sutton
  • psutton_at_du.edu
  • Department of Geography
  • University of Denver

2
John Weeks Intro to Population Policy
  • In the 1960s and 1970s it was relatively easy to
    see that the population of the world was growing
    too rapidly and that something needed to be done
    about it. Things were done about it, through
    direct and indirect policies, and so now, in the
    twenty-first century, we find that the rate of
    population growth is slowing down. But the
    tremendous momentum built into the worlds age
    structure means that a huge number of people are
    still being added to the worlds total each day
    and this will probably continue for the rest of
    your life. In the process, the implications of
    population growth and change have grown
    increasingly complex, requiring new policies and
    new approaches to policy implementation. In this
    chapter your demographic perspective will be put
    to work looking at how people and nations have
    tried, and continue to try, to influence
    demograpic events. This is an important use to
    which a demographic perspective can be put
    employing your understanding of the causes and
    consequences of population growth to improve the
    human condition, including your own.

3
Does the world agree on Population Policy?
  • WellNO.
  • Some want growth maintained
  • Some want growth curbed
  • Some want growth increased
  • Many see a Population-Environment connection

4
What is a Policy?
  • In General A policy is a formalized set of
    procedures designed to guide (change?) behavior.
    Its purpose is either to maintain consistency in
    behavior or to alter behavior in order to achieve
    a specified goal.
  • Population Policy represents a strategy for
    achieving a particular pattern of population or
    demographic change.

5
Policy Approach
  • Direct (specific)
  • Reduce Fertility to replacement level.
  • Indirect (general)
  • Increase status of women via education,
    empowerment, and access to contraception.

6
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7
Assessing the Future
  • SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
  • How will fertility change
  • In the United States?
  • Globally?
  • How will mortality change
  • In the United States?
  • In Kenya?
  • Globally?
  • How will migration change?
  • None of these questions are easy to answer
    accurately

8
Establishing a goal
  • Demography is usually an intermediate goal which
    is believed to influence more idealistic goals
    like
  • Improved standard of living
  • Reducing economic inequalities
  • Promoting gender equality
  • Eliminating hunger or racial/ethnic tension
  • Curbing environmental degradation
  • Preserving international peace
  • Increasing personal freedom

9
The Cairo (1994) International Conference on
Population Development (ICPD)
  • 15 principles of population related goals aimed
    at improving economic, cultural, and social
    development to improve quality of life for all
    people.

10
Basics of Goal Setting
  • Is expected future good or bad?
  • If good, how to maintain status quo
  • If bad, what and how to change
  • Will growth curbe economic development?
  • Will age/sex structure undermine economy?
  • Policies must be continually evaluated Re their
    effectiveness
  • Did desired demographic effect occur?
  • If demographic effect did occure did desired
    ancillary effects occur?

11
Population Policy in the 21st Century
  • Fig 13.1 assumes a country or people are aware of
    the future, anticipate change, and try to deal
    with it.
  • Some countries assume tomorrow will be like today
    (traditional) often they are Pro-Natalist
  • Pro-Natalist Policies
  • Forbid/outlaw divorce and/or abortion
  • Impede progress of women
  • Big Problem Gender inequality
  • Are attempts to improve the legal, social, and
    economic status of women just more cultural
    imperialism

12
The Nations of the World ignore Demography at
their own Peril
  • The United Nations Population Division regularly
    queries the nations of the world about their
    attitude about their population growth.
  • More and more governments representing a growing
    fraction of the world population are trying to
    slow population growth.
  • Middle countries (happy with current growth rate)
    are most interesting (some happy with low
    fertility U.S. some happy with high fertility
    Saudi Arabia)

13
Governments view of their countrys birth rate
14
Retarding Growth
  • Why?
  • Must stabilize population eventually
  • Benefits Economic Development
  • Natural Resource limits are looming
  • How?
  • Increase mortality
  • Decrease Fertility
  • Influence Migration

15
Influencing Mortality
  • Increasing Mortality
  • The lifeboat ethic
  • Triage
  • Decreasing Mortality
  • Usually in tandem with decreasing fertility

16
The Life Boat Ethic(often attributed to Garret
Hardin)
  • The lifeboat ethic is based on the premise that
    since a lifeboat holds only so many people and
    any more than that will cause the whole boat to
    sink, only those with a reasonable chance to
    survive (those with low fertility) should be
    allowed into the lifeboat. Withholding food and
    medical supplies could drastically raise the
    death rates in less developed nations and thus
    provide a longer voyage for those wealthier
    nations already riding in the lifeboat.
  • ..Bon voyage

17
Triage
  • Triage is the French word for sorting or
    picking, and refers to an anrmy hospital practice
    of sorting the wounded into three groups those
    who are in sufficiently good shape that they can
    survive without immediate treatment, those who
    will survive if they are treated without delay,
    and those basket cases who will die regardless
    of what treatment might be applied. As with the
    lifeboat ethic , it translates into selectivity
    in providing food and economic aid should the day
    come when supplies of seach are far less than
    demand. It means sending aid only to those
    countries that show promise of being able to
    bring their rates of population growth under
    control and abandoning those nations that are not
    likely to improve.

18
Decreasing Mortality(why would anyone want to do
that it increases population growth ?)
  • Most people probably share the opinion that
    raising mortality is better grist for science
    fiction than for population policy.
  • 1) How linked are dropping mortality and
    fertility?
  • 2) Often they are administratively linked via
    health care provision in the less developed
    countries.
  • 3) Infant mortality link with fertility is weak
    (there are examples of causation every which way)
  • Data for Guatemala suggest that it may take at
    least 2 generations for reductions in infant
    mortality to have any influence on fertility.

19
Influencing Migration
  • Should be easy right?
  • Easier than promoting Death.
  • Easier than preventing Birth.
  • Still, migration is tough to control.

20
Immigration may be the sincerest form of
flattery but few countries encourage it.
  • Causes racial, ethnic, and cultural conflict
  • Has been dramatically facilitated by improvements
    in global transporation and communication
    infrastructure
  • Immigration to U.S. and Canada a major fraction
    of global flow today
  • Outmigration from Mexico is a mixed blessing
    Remittances good, Loss of working population bad.

21
Immigration History of the U.S.(this will go on
for the next 12 slides)
  • Prior to the Civil War immigration was
    unrestricted.
  • Encouraged by European Death Rate drop
  • Free Migration from Europe to North and South
    America and Oceania one of the most significant
    migration of people across international
    boundaries in human history
  • After the Civil War we started to get our panties
    in a bunch about immigration

22
Immigration of Act of 1882
  • Opening of new lands in U.S. plus European
    economic woes caused increased migration after
    the Civil War
  • This law levied a head tax of 50 cents on each
    immigrant and blocked the entry of idiots,
    lunatics, convicts, and people likely to become
    public charges.

23
Ethnic Exclusion
  • 1849 Gold Rush in California created demand for
    labor
  • Much labor supplied by Chinese immigration
  • Chinese worked on Railroad and as strikebreakers
    (scabs) at east coast strikes
  • U.S. broke a treaty with China and excluded them
    from entry to the U.S.
  • Chinese exclusion acts lasted from 1882-1943
  • Japanese filled gap for some bime but were
    specifically excluded in 1924

24
European Migration
  • Mostly Northern and Western Europeans migrated to
    U.S. in early stages (98 in 1890)
  • Shifted to Southern and Eastern Europeans in
    about 1890
  • Ellis Island formed in 1892
  • 1891 law prevented people with diseases,
    criminals, the insane (1903), TB (1907)
  • In 1917 a literacy requirement was instated which
    required that anyone over 16 must be able to
    read.
  • Turn of the century (1900) migrations was
    astronomical in numbers and comparable to rates
    of migration to U.S. in late 1980s and early
    1990s

25
Post World War I(Not too tired, not too poor,
not too many.Oh, and by the way, preferably
white europeans)
  • 1921 Congress passed The Quota Law
    (this was the first act to set numerical limits
    on immigration)
  • limited the number of aliens of any nationality
    to 3 of foreign born persons of that nationality
    who lived in the U.S. in 1910
  • Example In 1910 there were 11,498 Bulgarians in
    the U.S. Therefore only (.03)(11,498) 345
    Bulgarians could migrate to U.S. in 1921

26
1924 The Immigration Quota Act
  • Racist ideas of Eugenics were becoming
    increasingly popular
  • Nordics people from northwestern Europe were
    genetically superior to others.
  • Result Dramatic and increased restrictions to
    immigration.

27
1929 The National Origins Quota
  • Attempt to deflect criticism about discriminating
    nature of 1924 law.
  • Based on ethnic proportions of U.S. population in
    1790 (no data existed so they guessed)
  • Fixed total of 150,000 immigrants allowed per
    year
  • If 1790 U.S. population was 50 English then
    75,000 of the new immigrants would be English
  • All countries allowed a minimum of 100
  • Congress could and did overrride the Quotas to
    allow European refugees to U.S. in prelude to
    WWII
  • (Einstein came, not a bad deal ?)

28
1952 The McCarran-Walter Act(The Immigration and
Naturalization act of 1952)
  • Spurred on by Anti-Communist McCarthy era
  • Migrant candidates assessed for their
    compatibility to American Society
  • Preferences for needed skills, and relatives of
    American citizens.
  • Canada Mirrored U.S. immigration policy pretty
    closely. Why? If they didnt they would have been
    inundated with immigrants.

29
Contemporary U.S. Immigration Policy
  • Ethnic discrimination ended in early 1960s
  • Immigration Act of 1965 ended national origins
    Quota method
  • Restrictions on total s remain, as well as on
    restrictions based on Hemisphere of origin.
  • Preference system
  • Relatives of American Citizens
  • Parents of U.S. citizens are unrestricted
  • Labor Dept. Certification for Labor Skills a
    priority
  • 1976 Parents of American child (kid must be 21)

30
U.S. Immigration Policy created massive numbers
of illegal (undocumented) aliens
  • Rapid Population growth in Mexico
  • Mexicos Economy could not absorb growth
  • 1950s and 1960s Bracero program
  • 1965 Bracero Program ended by Cesar Chavez and
    other Mexican-Americans along with an attempt at
    curbing illegal immigration to U.S. from Mexico.

31
1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA)
  • U.S. Perception was that our border was Out Of
    Control.
  • Illegal aliens were taking jobs from Americans
  • Illegals wee sapping the U.S. Welfare system
  • Illegals were Granted amnesty and a shot at
    citizenship for those living continuously in the
    U.S. since before January 1st, 1982
  • Made it illegal to hire illegal aliens with
    fines and enforcement
  • Law aimed at curtailing illegal immigration but
    had no (ZERO) impact

32
1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant
Responsibility Act
  • Shifted focus away from busting employers
  • Shifted focus toward Border Security
  • Big walls outside Tiajuana
  • More Border Patrol agents
  • 2000 illegal immigrants apprehended every day
  • Effectiveness(ZERO)
  • Catch and release Gate Keeping
  • Brain Drain (who wins ?)

33
Immigration Policy Other Countries
  • Labor is migrating worldwide
  • Germany receives many Turks Eastern Euros
  • England receives 50,000/year from India
    Pakistan
  • Italy (historically outmigration) enacted policy
    in 1986 to curb immigration
  • Denmark gets 15,000 from family re-unification
    alone (created laws to prevent this)
  • Malaysia received 65,000 Indonesians in 1st 6
    months of the year 2000
  • Afghans flood into Pakistan

34
Policy to control Immigration is basically an
absolute failure
  • Masseys
  • Perverse Laws of International Immigration
  • 1) Immigration is easier to start than stop.
  • 2) Actions taken to restrict immigration often
    have the opposite effect
  • 3) Fundamental causes of immigration maybe
    outside control of policy makers
  • 4) Immigrants understand Immigration better than
    policy makers and academics
  • 5) Because immigrants are smarter about
    immigration they are better able to circumvent
    policies aimed at stopping them.

35
Segway to Fertility(Why does U.S. withdraw
family planning funding?)
  • In the final analysis most attempts to limit
    immigration are motivated less by a desire to
    limit population growth in general, and more to
    limit the entrance of certain kinds of people
    into the country (no matter what country we are
    talking about). The greater the social and
    cultural differences between sending and
    receiving societies, the more likely it is that
    attempts will be made to slow down the pace of
    immigration. It is easy to conclude, then, that
    the most effective means by which you can retard
    growth is to nip it in the bud to limit
    fertility.

36
Limiting Fertility
  • Definitely the best way to slow growth
  • Definitely the most complex problem
  • 3 Preconditions to fertility decline (Ansley
    Coale)
  • 1) Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid
    element in fertilty (secularism ?)
  • 2) Perception of advantages to reduced fertility
    on an individual basis (desire for lower
    fertility)
  • 3) Availability, knowledge, and mastery of
    techniques of fertility control (filling the
    unmet need gap)
  • (Note most policies focus on 3)

37
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38
Family Planning
  • Provide each woman with the technological ability
    to have only as many children as she wants by
    providing information, services, and appliances
    (including abortion and sterilization)
  • Often provided today in tandem with HIV/AIDS
    prevention info etc.
  • Key Assumption was Give them access to birth
    control and they will use it. (Not always true)
  • Sex and reproduction are politically and socially
    sensitive issues. Selling family planning as part
    of Health care was a good Public Relations
    Practice

39
Spread of Family Planning
  • In the mid-1960s, developing countries began to
    adopt policies to support family planning as a
    means of slowing population growth. By the late
    1960s, family planning had become a worldwide
    social movement that involved international
    organizations such as the the United Nations Fund
    for Population Activities (UNFPA), government
    agencies such as the United States Agency for
    International Development (USAID), nonprofit
    organizations such as the affiliates of the
    International Planned Parenthood Federation, and
    a host of individuals, many with backgrounds in
    medicine and public health.
  • 1965 21 countries supported family planning
  • 1974 86 countries supported family planning
  • 1989 123 countries supported family planning
    (91 of worlds population)
  • NOTE Family Planning Programs goal was to
    eliminate Unmet Need coercion was never, ever,
    part of their program.
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