Global Carbon Observatory Pep Canadell GCP-CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research With contributions and thanks to: Philippe Ciais, David Crisp, Roger Dargaville, Stephen Plummer, Michael Raupach

1
Global Carbon Observatory Pep
CanadellGCP-CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
ResearchWith contributions and thanks
toPhilippe Ciais, David Crisp, Roger
Dargaville, Stephen Plummer, Michael Raupach
Integrated Global Carbon Observations - IGCO
2
Outline

• Goals and Vision for a global C observatory
• Major types of observations
• Satellite observations
• Carbon from space OCO, GOSAT
• In situ observations
• Process understanding
• Linking observations to processes
• Fundamental research and model development

3
1. Goals and Vision of a Carbon Observatory

• To provide the long-term observations required
  to improve understanding of the present state and
  future behavior of the global carbon cycle,
  particularly the factors that control the global
  atmospheric CO2 level and feedbacks to climate.
• To measure carbon sources and sinks from global
  to regional scales in a way that can inform the
  development of international climate treaties,
  and methodologies for national GHGs budgets and
  domestic policies.
• To monitor and assess the effectiveness of
  carbon sequestration and/or emission reduction
  activities on global atmospheric CO2 levels,
  including attribution of sources and sinks by
  region and sector.

IGCO 2004, GCP 2003
4
Vision for a Carbon Cycle Model-Data Assimilation
System



Atmospheric Transport model





Terrestrial carbon model
Ocean carbon model




IGCO 2004
5
1980-2000 Mean Net Flux to the Atmosphere (gC
m-2 y-1)
Multiple Constraints Data Assimilation for Carbon
Cycle
Continental to Sub-continental Resolution

• Models
• atmospheric transport model
• terrestrial biosphere (BETHY)

• Data Assimilated
• Atmospheric CO2
• AVHRR - PAR
• 12 Functional Veg. Types

• TransCom resolution
• Transport Model
• Atmospheric CO2

Rayner et al. 2005
6
2. Types of Observations

• Complementary core groups of observations to
  address three themes
• Fluxes observations to enable quantification of
  the distribution and variability of the CO2
  fluxes between the Earths surface and the
  atmosphere.
• Pools Observations on changes in the
  atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial reservoir
  carbon pools.
• Process Measurements related to the important
  carbon cycle processes that control fluxes.

7
IGCO 2004
8
IGCO 2004
9
3. Priorities for Satellite Observations

• Column-integrated atmospheric CO2
• Atmospheric CO2 and aerosols
• Biomass burning CH4 emissions
• Column integrated CH4
• Atmospheric structure, temperature, humidity,
  winds.
• Land-cover change
• Ecosystem disturbances
• Directional reflectance
• Ocean color
• Ancillary terrestrial data
• Ancillary oceanic data
• Forest aboveground biomass
• Wetland coverage

New Measurements
Not new but require new spatial and temporal
resolution, or better coordination
IGCO 2004
10
CO2 from Space Instruments
Instrument Coverage
Weight-func Hrl Res CO CH4 CO2
Precision TOVS trop monthly
upper-trop 15 degs no no yes
SCIAMACHY global
column 3060 km yes yes yes
3-5ppm AIRS glob daily mid-trop
50 km yes yes yes 2ppm IASI
glob daily mid-trop 50 km
yes yes yes 2ppm CRIS glob
daily mid-trop 50 km yes yes
yes 2ppm OCO sunlit column
3-10 km2 no no yes 12ppm GOSAT
sunlit column 100-1000 Km
yes yes 34ppm ACCLAIM glob weekly
lower trop 100m no no
yes 1ppm A-SCOPE glob weekly
lower trop 100m no no yes
1ppm
Peter Rayner 2005 (unpublished)
11
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)
Near Infrared Passive Sensor Launch Sept. 2008

• Resolve pole to pole XCO2 gradients on regional
  scales
• Resolve the XCO2 seasonal cycle
• Improve constraints on CO2 fluxes (sources and
  sinks) compared to the current knowledge
• Reduce regional scale flux uncertainties from
  gt2000 gC m-2 yr-1 to lt 200 gC m-2 yr-1
• Reduce continental scale flux uncertainties below
  30 gC m-2 yr-1

David Chris 2005
12
OCO Path 1-day Unselected
13
OCO Path Clouds Selected
14
OCO Path 3-day Unselected
15
Uncertainy Reduction from Different Data Sources
CO2 Inversions
Data
2 weekly
Houweling et al. 2005
16
4. Priorities for in situ observations

• Atmospheric CO2 and Carbon Cycle Tracer
  Observations.
• Eddy Covariance fluxes of CO2, H2O and Energy.
• Large scale biomass
• inventories.
• Large scale soil carbon
• inventories.
• Ocean carbonates.

IGCO 2004
17
Priority Pools and Processes
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots
Land
Permafrost
Oceans
HL Peatlands
CH4 HydratesBiological Pump Solubility Pump
T Peatlands
Veg.-Fire/LUC
GCP 2005
18
Priority Pools and Processes
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks Hot Spots
Land
Permafrost
Oceans
HL Peatlands
CH4 HydratesBiological Pump Solubility Pump
T Peatlands
Veg.-Fire/LUC
GCP 2005
19
Carbon-Climate Feedbacks
10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle
Coupled Climate-Carbon
Difference Coupled-Uncoupled
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
220 ppm
NO processes on thawing frozen carbon NO
processes on drained peatlands NO specific fire
processes NO processes accounting for nutrient
limitation (N, P)
Friedlingstein et al. 2006
20
5. Attributing Major Processes to Fluxes

• Core space based observation
• Land-cover change
• Disturbances (e.g., fire counts and burned
  areas)
• Leaf Area Index and related biophysical
  processes
• Ocean color (which relates to biological
  activity)
• In situ observation related to processes
• Soil characteristics
• Water vapor and energy eddy covariance fluxes
• Phenology of the terrestrial biosphere
• Nutrient distributions and fluxes (ocean and
  land)
• Species composition of ecosystems
• Atmospheric tracers (O2N2 13C-CO2 CO
  aerosols).

21
Carbon Emissions from Fires
Atmospheric Tracers CO, CH4 Remote Sensing
Fire Spots, Burned Area
C Flux Anomalies (gC/m2/yr) El Nino 1997-98
Fire C Emissions Anomaly (gC/m2/yr) El Nino
1997-98
1997-98 2.1 Pg C emissions from fires 66 of the
CO2 growth rate anomaly 1997-2001 3.53 Pg C
emissions from fires
Rodenbeck et al. 2003 Werf et al. 2004
22
(17) Transport Models (TransCom)
Fundamental process understanding model
development
More Data is not Enough
4 ppm
23
Global Terrestrial Carbon Uptake
(6) Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
7 PgCyr-1
Cramer et al. 2001
24
Biospheric Carbon Uptake (Pg C yr-1)
10 GCMs with coupled carbon cycle
Land C Uptake
Ocean C Uptake
Land Uptake (Gt C/yr)
15 Pg
7 Pg
Friedlingstein et al. 2006
25
Candidate Mechanisms of Current Terrestrial Sinks
Driven by Atmospheric Climate change

• CO2 fertilization
• Nitrogen fertilization
• Warming and preciptation change
• Regrowth in abandoned croplands
• Fire suppression (woody encroach.)
• Regrowth in previously disturbed forests
• Logging, fire, wind, insects
• Decreased deforestation
• Improved agriculture
• Sediment burial
• Carbon Management (reforestation)

Driven by Land Use Change
Canadell et al. 2006
26
The Terrestrial Carbon Sink
Attribution of the terrestrial carbon sink

• will increase in the future if the important
  mechanisms are
• physiological
• (eg, CO2 Fertilization)

• will decrease in the future if the important
  mechanism are due to the legacy of past land use
• (eg, regrowth, thickening..)

Sink strength
Sink strength
Climate warms as predicted
Climate warms more rapidly than predicted
27
Terrestrial Carbon Observations
Approach
Scale
RS CO2 RS Measurements CO2 Measuremts Biomass/
NPP and soil inventories
Continent Biome
Regional campaigns Field experiments Disturbances
Region Landscape
Pools and Fluxes
Process studies
1 km2
Eddy Covariance fluxes
1 ha
Plot studies and experiments
Modified from GTOS, Cihlar et al. 2001
28
End