ANPR, EPA, CCSP: USBS

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ANPR, EPA, CCSP USBS? Dr. Patrick J.
Michaels Professor of Environmental
Sciences University of Virginia Senior Fellow,
Cato Institute
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ADVANCE NOTICE OF PROPOSED RULEMAKING,
EPAScientific Rationale Technical Support
Document TSD for Endangerment Analysis for
Greenhouse Emissions
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Would Climate Models Stand Up in Court?
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Have the global warming models failed?

• --Examine the suite of 21 IPCC climate models
• --Midrange emissions scenario
• --Examine one (cold) tail at .025 significance
  level
• --Data through 2008 show model precisely on the
  edge of systematic failure

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Atmospheric Change
Climate Models
Climate Impacts
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Observed global temperature anomalies, 1977-2008
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IPCC AR4 A1B Temperature Change
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Projected (A1B) and Observed Temperatures
Model Projections
Observed Trend
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Global temperature projections from 21 climate
models 2000-2020
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Comparison of Model Projections and Observed
Temperature Trends
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Comparison of Model Projections and Observed
Temperature Trends (assuming 2009 to be the same
as 2008)
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Comparison of Model Projections and Observed
Temperature Trends (with and without the
influence of volcanoes)
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MISLEADING STATEMENT Global mean surface
temperatures have risen by 0.74 deg C over the
last 100 years. The rate of warming over the
last 50 years is almost double that over the last
100 yearsWith an increased rate of warming
during the past 30 years. (TSD Page ES-1)
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(No Transcript)
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LAND-BASED WARMING

• Surface temperatures over land have risen
  about.0.27 deg C per decade (p. 23)

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McKitrick and Michaels, 2007

• NON-CLIMATIC EFFECTS IN IPCC HISTORY
• --ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND LAND-USE EFFECTS
• --GDP, GDP GROWTH, EDUCATION ALL AFFECT QUALITY
  OF CLIMATE HISTORIES

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Relative Importance of Significant Predictors
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DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE
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Effects of Economic Signals in the Surface
Temperature Record
(Data source McKitrick and Michaels, 2007)
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ADJUSTMENT FOR NON-CLIMATIC EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURE
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LONG-TERM TRENDS IN US PRECIPITATION

• pp. 28-29, TSD.
• What about the last three decades? Are they
  unusual??

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(No Transcript)
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WRONG Antarctic sea ice extent, however, shows
no statistically significant average trends. (p.
32, TSD)Rise significant at .0001 level
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Conflation of melting of Alaska glaciers with
global warming (TSD, p. 32). Wrong. Alaskas
temperatures show a single step-change in
1976-77, not the signature expected from global
warming.
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The latitudinal pattern of changes in land
precipitation over the 20th centuryappears to
be consistent with the response to anthropogenic
forcing. Wrong. From Zhang et al., 2007
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Exaggeration negative changes in precipitation
in Pacific Southwest of 3.0 inches/year.Reality
Decline of 1.5 inches/year in 100 years
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Complete disintegration of Greenland Ice Sheet
would take many hundreds of years to complete
(TSD, p. 59)Wrong. It takes thousands of years
under unrealistically high assumptions for carbon
dioxide.
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EPA cites IPCC projections of increased flood
damage in U.S. (P. 66, lines 34-42).

• Wrong. Flood-related damage per unit GDP shows
  no significant trend (Downton et al, 2005).

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EPA claims increased U.S. damages from hurricanes
as planet warms (TSD, p. 67, 4-13)

• Wrong. No change whatsoever after allowing for
  population, inflation, and property values
  (Pielke et al., 2008)

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Above average temperatures in the U.S. during
the summers of 2002-2004 were linked to the
greatest transmissions of West Nile virus (TSD,
p. 68). Absolutely Wrong. WNV spread across
entire nation, regardless of temperature.
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Saint Louis Encephalitis has a tendency to
appear in hot, dry La Nina years. (TSD p. 68)

• 1. La Nina years tend to be cold
• 2. IPCC projects no change in frequency

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Any Trend in St. Louis Encephalatis?
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EPA the northern range limit ofthe tick that
carries Lyme disease, could shift north 200km by
the 2020s. (p. 68m 13-16)

• Reality The disease flourishes in cool climates!

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EPA quotes IPCC on mortality and global warming
(p 68).
Reality
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Climate Change Endangers U.S. Agriculture
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(No Transcript)
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April snow water equivalents have declined
15-30 since 1950 in the western mountains of
North America. (TSD, p. 86)Reality Stop
cherry-picking the data!!From Cayan, 1996
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To view the entire sad story

• SHAKY SCIENCE INCONVENIENT TRUTHS IGNORED BY EPA
  IN ITS PROPOSAL TO REGULATE CARBON DIOXIDE
  EMISSIONS
• http//www.cato.org/pubs/articles/michaels_ANPR_EP
  A.pdf