Earth System Science Partnership

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Earth System Science Partnership
Global Water System Project
Holger Hoff
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(No Transcript)
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Earth System Science Partnership

• a new phase of integrated research
• focusing on human-environment interactions
• assessing vulnerabilities, limits and critical
  thresholds of Earth system components
• addressing policy relevant science questions
  that cannot be answered by any of the
  programmes individually

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Biosphere Interactions
Land use change effects
Pielke et al., (2001) Ecol. Appl. 7
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River Basins Coasts

• Impact of riverine carbon, nutrients, water,
  sediment and toxins on the coast
• Critical loads and thresholds

Buddemeier et al (2002), LOICZ Report 24
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CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability

• e.g.
• Will there be an El Niño next year?
• Will the next monsoon cause drought or flooding?

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GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

• to observe, understand and model the global
  hydrological cycle,
• predict the variations and impacts on regional
  hydrological processes and water resources

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Continental Scale Experiments
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GECHS - Global Environmental Change and Human
Security
Water Security i.    Effects of dams and
other development projects on access to water
resources ii.   Teleconnections in the
hydrological cycle, e.g. through links to
agriculture and trade iii.         Extent and
causes of scarcity, wrt existing allocation
arrangements (equity issue see food Mohamed
Salih)
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IT Industrial Transformation
e.g. decoupling the need of cities for water
from effects on the hydrological cycle
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Diversitas
Freshwater biodiversity assessment and drivers
of change
Freshwater biodiversity changes, e.g related to
climate change, species introduction or
eutrophication
Ecosystem resilience or adaptation to human
impacts
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Global Water System Project
Rational Humans have begun to affect the Global
Water System significantly without adequate
understanding of how the system works
Mission Improve knowledge of, and responsible
interaction with the GWS e.g. through global
observation consolidation of global data
sets predictive and coupled modelling
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Global Water System Project
Overarching question How are humans changing the
global water cycle, the associated biogeochemical
cycles, and the biological components of the
Global Water System, and what are the social
feedbacks arising from these changes?  
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Global Water System Project
Integrative questions   I. What are the
magnitudes of global-scale changes in the Global
Water System, attributable e.g. to changing water
use, water management, land use, and climate
variability and change?

1. What are the main mechanisms by which human
   activities are affecting the Global Water System?
    

III. To what extent is the Global Water
System resilient to global change? How adaptable
is the Global Water System and how capable are
water management systems and ecosystems to cope?
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Global Water System Project
Tasks Short term identify data needs, and
early efforts to construct first generation
global data sets, via synthesis and coordination
with other programs ( conceptual framework)
Medium term facilitate the development of
first-generation models that would allow
prediction of physical, chemical, biological, and
socioeconomic aspects of human manipulation of
the Global Water System
Long term promote development of interactive
models capable of predicting possible responses
and feedbacks of the Global Water System (and
especially its terrestrial components) to human
use and abuse with reliable uncertainty estimates
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GWSP Pilot Project on Virtual Water Trade
IGBP nitrogen and nutrient effects
IHDP institutional settings of water
allocation at all scales WCRP climatic
hotspots (aridification, droughts) that will
induce additional VWT Diversitas ecological
consequences
South Asia New export opportunities are
emerging, for non-traditional items Aggarwal,
Joshi, Ingram, Gupta, 2003
Hoekstra et al 2003
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Water Food
Shiklomanov 2003
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Common interests of GWSP GECAFS
GWSP GECAFS
about water security about food security (provision)
adaptability of the Global Water System adaptation strategies for food provision
supporting water policies supporting food policies
effects of changing food preferences on the GWS analysis of changing food preferences
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Common interests of GWSP GECAFS South Asia
Aggarwal, Joshi, Ingram, Gupta, 2003
Virtual water content (per kg) Potatoes 100-150
l Wheat 1000-2000 l Rice 1500-3500 l Beef
15,000 20,000 l Consequences for regional water
resources and the GWS ?
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Water Food in the IGP
Increasing competition for water with
non-agricultural users Increasing hydrological
variability and extremes (glacier melting) Need
to improve utilization of groundwater Need to
improve reuse of wastewater in agriculture Nepal
decreasing dry-season flow why ?
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The Global Water System Project invites your
contribution
contact www.gwsp.org holger.hoff_at_pik-potsdam.de