Wrong horse, wrong race: Japanese militarization and Japans real security needs

1
Wrong horse, wrong race Japanese militarization
and Japans real security needs

• Richard Tanter

www.nautilus.org
2
Prime Minister Abe Shinzo on upgrading the
Defence Agency to the Ministry of Defence

• "a landmark event that marks the end of the
  postwar regime and will lay the groundwork for
  building a new state."

3
Education minister Ibuki Bunmei

• "Japan has been historically governed by the
  Yamato (Japanese) race. Japan is an extremely
  homogenous country."
• "Human rights are important, but if we respect
  them too much, Japanese society will end up
  having human rights metabolic syndrome."

4
Minister of Labour, Health and Welfare,
Yanagisawa Hakuo

• The number of women between the ages of 15 and 50
  is fixed. The number of birth-giving machines
  (and) devices is fixed, so all we can ask is that
  they do their best per head

5
Agenda

• Anxious nation - Japanese tensions
• Japans security thinking - old and new
• Where we are now Heisei militarization
• The fading taboo - the nuclear option
• Strategic risks of current policy
• The real security risks global problems
• Wrong horse, wrong race
• Which way for Australia and Japan?

6
1. Anxious nation - Japanese tensions

7

8
Japan-centred hemisphere
9
The view from China, Russia and Korea
10
Legacies of empire failures of reconciliation
11
Legacies of empire denial of wartime sexual
slavery. Australia-Indonesian connection Jan
Ruff-OHerne
12
Legacies of empire -three neighbours, three
border disputes

• islands of Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan, and the
  Habomai group in the southern Kurils, (Northern
  Territories)
• Liancourt Rocks (Takeshima/Tokdo) disputed with
  South Korea
• Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands claimed by China and
  Taiwan

13
North Korean spy ship under fire from Japan Coast
Guard vessel, East China Sea, 2002
14
Major Asia-Pacific Shipping Lanes
15
Keidanrens threat board
16
The ambivalent alliance -the Ampo (Japan-US
Mutual Security) treaty system

17
US Forces Japan, 2005
18
US major bases - mainland
19
US major bases - Okinawa
20
The problem of OkinawaFutenma Marine Corps Air
base
21
2. Japans security thinking - old and new

22
Old security thinking the Yoshida doctrine

• Swallow pride and accept subordination to the US
  over foreign policy and bases
• concentrate on mercantilist economic development
• resist US demands for remilitarization as much as
  possible
• Security policy defensive defence and
  comprehensive defence
• Acceptance and articulation of the culture of
  Article 9

23
Article 9 of the Japanese constitution

• (1) Aspiring sincerely to an international peace
  based on justice and order, the Japanese people
  forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the
  nation and the threat or use of force as means of
  settling international disputes.
• (2) In order to accomplish the aim of the
  preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces,
  as well as other war potential, will never be
  maintained. The right of aggression of the state
  will not be recognized.

24
The new security thinking About face

• Proportional (to threats) defence
• Great power realism
• The new nationalism and restoration of the
  autonomous state
• Closer integration with the US

25
3. Where we are now Heisei militarization

26
Self Defence Forces personnel (uniformed) 2005
27
Type 74 main battle tank
28
Type-90 main battle tank
29
DDH Kongo 173
30
MSDF P-3C
31
Heisei militarization

• 1989 death of the Showa emperor, start of Heisei
• Heisei militarization vs. Showa militarism
• Upgrading military forces
• Relying on military solutions
• Normalisation of military force
• Integration with US forces
• Expansion of military industries
• Real possibility of nuclear armament

32
Heisei militarizations four big new steps

• Special forces proliferation
• Intelligence expansion
• Overseas deployments
• Missile defence

33
4. The fading taboo - the nuclear option

34
Rokkasho spent fuel reprocessing plant
35
Perth ground station for Japanese military
surveillance satellites
36
H-IIA F8 configuration
37
5. With eyes wide shut - strategic risks of
existing policy

38
6. The real security risks global problems

39
High impact global problems as Japanese security
threats

• Climate change
• Pandemics
• Energy insecurity
• Nuclear next use
• Characteristics of global problems

40
7. Conclusions Wrong horse, wrong race

• The anachronism of Great Power Realism
• The problem of rising nationalisms
• Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Russian and American
• Dysfunctional nationalist responses
• What has been jettisoned in Japan
• The real security imperatives from regional
  expressions of global problems

41
Signs on the highway

• Growth in Japanese military production
• Japanese combat forces abroad - benefits and
  risks
• Restraint or arms race?
• Japanese responses to global environmental
  threats business as usual under the rhetoric
• Cooperative security or dog-eat-dog or a new cold
  war?

42
8. Which way for Australia and Japan?

The new security architecture Binding Japan and
Australia, containing China - Richard Tanter,
Austral Policy Forum 07-07A, 15 March 2007
http//nautilus.rmit.edu.au/forum-reports/index.ht
ml