Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

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Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

• Lecture 5
• Sociology SOCI 20182

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Fertility measures and patterns
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Fertility measures

• Crude Birth Rate, CBR
• General Fertility Rate, GFR
• Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR or
  Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR
• Marital Fertility Rate, MFR
• Total Fertility Rate,  TFR
  (period and cohort)
• Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR
• Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
• Parity Progression Ratios, PPR

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Crude Birth Rate, CBR

• Number of births in the studied year divided by
  average size of the population during the year,
  per 1,000 persons
• CBR Births / Total Population on July 1, x
  1,000 to get per 1,000 persons

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Crude Birth Rate, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Easy to calculate
• Useful for calculation of the Rate of Natural
  Increase, RNI
• RNI CBR (crude birth rate) - CDR (crude
  death rate)
• and the Population Growth Rate, PGR
• PGR RNI (rate of natural increase) NMR (net
  migration rate)
• Cons
• Depends not only on individual-level childbearing
  behavior, but also on age and sex distribution of
  population.

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Crude Birth Rate, Cons

• In old societies (with many retirement
  communities), and counties with male excess (e.g.
  with military bases), Crude Birth Rate may be
  exceptionally low, even if young women there have
  a lot of children

Figure. CBR dynamics in Russia depends on
population structure
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General Fertility Rate, GFR

• Number of births in the studied year divided by
  average size of the WOMEN of CHILDBEARING AGE (15
  - 49 years ) during the year, per 1,000 persons
• GFR Births / Midyear female population, aged
  15-49 years, x 1,000 to get per 1,000
  women

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General Fertility Rate, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Characterizes fertility of women better than CBR
  (crude birth rate)
• Empirical observation in most countries the
  reproductive female population (aged 15-49 years)
  is close to 25 of the total population
• Cons
• Too wide age range women have different birth
  rates at specific ages within 15-49 year age
  interval.
• In older societies (with many women aged 40-49
  years), General Fertility Rate may be
  exceptionally low, even if younger women there
  have a very high fertility.

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Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR  or
Age-specific Birth Rates, ASBR

• Similar to crude birth rate but calculated for
  specific age groups of women of childbearing age
• Age groups Single-year age groups, or
  five-year age groups (15-19, 20-24, .... 45-49)
• Age range 15 - 49, or 15 - 44 years

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Age-specific Fertility Rates, Example

• Age-specific Fertility Rate, ASFR, for Age Group
  20-24 years
• Births to women, aged 20-24 / Number of women
  aged 20-24 at midyear of the study period,
• x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons
• Rarely, Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR are
  also calculated for men, when male fertility is
  studied.

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Age-specific fertility (per 1000 women) in Russia
(red) and Greece (blue)
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Age-specific Fertility Rates, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Basis for all subsequent detailed studies on
  fertility
• Cons
• Detailed data are required, which may be not
  available for developing countries, war periods,
  and historic studies.
• These data are too detailed to be used to
  calculate population growth rates, or natural
  increase rates

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Marital Fertility Rates, MFR

• Fertility rates of married women, either at
  specific ages (Age-specific Marital Fertility
  Rates, ASMFR), or the full range of reproductive
  ages (15 - 49, or 15 - 44 years) --
• General Marital Fertility Rate, GMFR.
• Example
• Marital Fertility Rate, MFR
• Births to married women, aged 15-49 /
  Number of married women aged 15-49 at midyear of
  the study period,
• x 1,000 to get per 1,000 persons

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Marital Fertility Rates, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Enables analysis of marital fertility and the
  pace and timing of childbearing that occurs
  within formal marriage.
• Takes into account situations when many women
  could not marry, because of lack of men (e.g.,
  male losses in World War II)
• Takes into account differences and changes in the
  age at marriage, and marriage duration (effects
  of divorces)
• Cons
• Requires detailed data on marital status by age,
  which may be not available for developing
  countries, and historic studies.
• Provides only partial picture for populations
  with extensive non-marital fertility
  (cohabitation)

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Total Fertility Rate,  TFR

• Period total fertility rate, PTFR
• The average number of children a women would bear
  in her life if she experiences the age-specific
  fertility rates prevailing at the study period.
• Total Fertility Rate, TFR, for a given year is
  calculated by summing the age-specific fertility
  rates for that year over the range of
  reproductive ages.

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TFR changes over time, Russia
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TFR changes over time Russia, USA, Estonia
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TFR changes over time (some FSU countries)
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Regional differences in TFR, Russia
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Period total fertility rate, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Helps to determine whether population will
  decline (TFR lt 2.1), be close to stationary (near
  zero or slow population growth at TFR 2.1 -
  3.0), or rapidly growing (TFR gt 3).
• Empirically, the relationship between the Total
  Fertility Rate (TFR) and the Crude Birth Rate
  (CBR) looks like
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) of 50 per 1,000
  corresponds to Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of
  about 7 children per women
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) of 15 per 1,000
  corresponds to Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of
  about 2 children per women
• Cons
• Period Total Fertility Rate describes fertility
  observed during a short study period (usually one
  year period). Because fertility changes over
  time, the period TFR is a poor measure of the
  completed fertility of older women, and a poor
  predictor of the anticipated completed fertility
  of younger women (at early stages of their
  reproductive "career").

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Cohort Total Fertility Rate,  CTFR

• The average number of children a women bears in
  her life, for women born in a specific time
  period (specific year, or five-year birth period,
  named a birth cohort).
• Cohort Total Fertility Rate, CTFR, for a given
  birth cohort is calculated by summing the actual
  age-specific fertility rates over the range of
  reproductive ages for women born in a specific
  time period.

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Period TFR for hypothetical cohorts (red) and
Cohort TFR for real cohorts (blue) in Russia
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Cohort Total Fertility Rate, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Allows a precise description of the actual
  childbearing experience of specific birth cohorts
  of women
• Superior to census and survey questions on
  "children ever born", because it does not omit
  the childbearing experience of women who died
  before the time of the census or survey.
• Cons
• Requires detailed historical data on birth rates
  by age of mothers born in specific years, which
  may be not available for developing countries.
• Can be calculated only at the conclusion of a
  cohort's childbearing years (for women who have
  passed the 50-year mark). Therefore it can not
  be calculated for those women who were born after
  year 1958.
• Mostly historical significance, little relevance
  to current fertility situation

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Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR (period)

• The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would
  bear in her life if she experiences the
  age-specific fertility rates (for daughters)
  prevailing at the study period.
• Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR, in most
  circumstances equals roughly a half of the Total
  Fertility Rate, TFR
• (slightly less than a half, because boys are
  somewhat more prevalent at birth than girls)
• Exception
• China "One Child" policy leads to a
  distortion of sex ratio at birth in favor of
  boys, leading to a lower Gross Reproduction Rate,
  GRR.

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Gross Reproduction Rate, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Helps to aggregate age-specific fertility rates
  into one simple measure mean number of
  daughters expected per one woman.
• Sensitive indicator on how future fertility could
  be affected by a distortion of sex ratio at birth
  (e.g., China).
• Cons
• Adds little information to the Total Fertility
  Rate, TFR
• Could be misleading, because changes in the
  timing of births do not necessarily change the
  total number of life-time births per woman

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Net Reproduction Rate, NRR (period)

• The average number of DAUGHTERS a women would
  bear in her life if she experiences the
  age-specific fertility rates (for daughters)
  prevailing at the study period, AND if her
  daughters experienced the prevailing rates of
  mortality.
• If the age schedules of both fertility and
  mortality remain constant, the Net Reproduction
  Rate would be a measure of generational
  REPLACEMENT.
• Examples
• NRR 1.1 -- next generation will be 10 larger
  than the present generation (growth)
• NRR 1.0 -- next generation will be the same as
  the present generation (replacement level)
• NRR 0.9 -- next generation will be 10 smaller
  than the present generation (depopulation)

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NRR for Armenia, Russia and Uzbekistan
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NRR for Russia, USA and Estonia
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Net Reproduction Rate, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Taking into account both fertility and survival
  in getting one indicator of reproductivity of a
  population
• Cons
• Requires detailed data on fertility and survival
  of women, up to age 50 years
• Does not take into account that women born in
  different years may have different fertility and
  survival

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Parity Progression Ratios, PPR (cohort)

• A proportion of women of a given "parity" (number
  of live births), who go on to have at least one
  ADDITIONAL child during the course of their
  remaining childbearing years.
• This is a probability of progressing from parity
  X to all higher parities (X 1, X 2, etc).
  PPR lt 1.0

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Parity Progression Ratio, formula
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Parity Progression Ratio, Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Useful for studies of reproduction in specific
  birth cohorts of women
• Helps to detect and estimate family planning and
  birth control becoming more strict at specific
  higher parities (in developed countries often at
  parity 2)
• Cons
• Could be studied only for older women (50 years)
  who completed their childbearing years
• Requires detailed data on children ever born from
  a census or survey

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Demographic Transition

• A belief that all countries will eventually
  follow the same scenario a transition from high
  mortality and fertility rates to low mortality
  and fertility rates (both with relatively slow
  population growth rate).
• A state of low mortality and high fertility (with
  explosive population growth) is believed to be a
  historically "short" transitional state, caused
  by the time lag between mortality decline and a
  subsequent fertility decline.

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Demographic Transition (schema)
High Fertility Low Mortality
Low Fertility Low Mortality
High Fertility High Mortality
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Why should fertility decline?

• Three preconditions should coexist "ready,
  willing, able (A. Coale, 1973)
• "Ready Fertility must be within the calculus of
  conscious choice. The idea of fertility
  regulation should become culturally acceptable
• "Willing Reduced fertility must be
  advantageous Perceived gains to motivate
  couples to have fewer children
• "Able Effective techniques of fertility
  reduction must be available Dissemination of
  knowledge and cheap/effective contraceptive
  supplies

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Demographic transition in Russia

• At the beginning of the 20th century Russia had
  very high but not very efficient fertility - many
  children did not survive to adult ages because of
  high child mortality
• However difference between children born and
  children survived to adult ages became small for
  cohorts of mothers born after 1925 (result of
  declining infant mortality)

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Number of children surviving to different ages
per woman, Russia
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Women were involved more in industrial labor

• Down with kitchen slavery!

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Rapid decline of fertility after bolshevik
revolution
Slogan Liberated woman Build Socialism! After
the revolution bolshevik government allowed
abortions Sex was considered a natural need
(compared to glass of water)
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Number of children per woman in Russia and
developed countries
Maternal birth cohort
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Stalin tried to improve situation with fertility
but it was too late
1936 Stalins government banned abortions this
measure provided a short-lived increase of
births Introduced a medal mother-hero
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The second demographic transition

• In the late 1980s and early 1990s fertility in
  Russia and other FSU countries rapidly declined
• This decline was accompanied by increase of
  mortality (particularly at working ages)
• These observations allowed some researchers to
  talk about the second demographic transition

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Changes in fertility were partially caused by
structural changes
Number of births (million) Red number of
births Blue the same curve shifted by 26 years
earlier (superposition of mothers and daughters
generations)
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Existing explanations of fertility drop during
the 1990s

• Economic crisis (uncertainty about the future and
  increasing the costs of child rearing)
• Socio-cultural change (transition towards more
  western practices of family formation and
  childbearing)
• Soviet pronatalist policies in the early 1980s
  (benefits for women giving birth to the 3rd
  child, 3-year paid maternity leave) accelerated
  births which otherwise would happen later

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Recent Trends

• Proportion of non-marital births is increasing
  general tendency (12 in 1985 vs 29 in 2001 in
  Russia)
• Maternal age is increasing general tendency
• However the age of birth for the first child
  remains low no evidence of postponing births

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Proportion of non-marital births () in
Kyrgyzstan by age and year
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Growth of non-marital births () in Ukraine
Red All Black urban Green -rural
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Non-marital fertility in Russia (percent of
births)
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Mean age of mother
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Fertility for women of different ages
(age-specific birth rates)
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Number of children (per woman) needed for
replacement in Russia
Blue actual number Red needed after
accounting for mortality of mothers Pink needed
after accounting for mortality of daughters
Maternal birth cohort
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Population Momentum(Momentum of Population
Growth)

• A tendency for population growth rates to lag
  behind changes in age-specific fertility and
  mortality rates. Momentum operates through the
  population age distribution.

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Population Momentum Examples

• Population that has been growing rapidly for a
  long time, acquires a young age distribution
  (with many people in reproductive ages) that will
  result in positive population growth for many
  decades, even if age-specific fertility and
  mortality rates imply zero population growth or
  even depopulation in the very long run.
• Opposite example
• Too old societies with most people being at
  post-reproductive ages will experience
  depopulation, even if age-specific fertility and
  mortality rates imply population growth in the
  very long run.