Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

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Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

• Lecture 12
• Sociology SOCI 20182

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Migration

• Different types of migration
• International migration
• Internal migration
• Labor migration
• Forced migration
• Repatriation

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Migration flows in the FSU countries
Until recently only Russia and Belarus had
positive migration rates
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Migration in FSU countries

• Migration rates are declining in most countries.
  Exception Kazakhstan
• Migration outside FSU countries is also
  declining. Most emigrants go to USA, Germany and
  Israel
• Over 80 of migrants are at working ages

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Migration between Russia and FSU countries

• In 1980-1989 positive migration flows to Russia
  from all FSU countries except for the Baltic
  countries
• In 1990-1994 positive migration flows from all
  FSU countries except for Ukraine
• In 1995-1999 positive migration flows from all
  FSU countries except for Belarus
• With outside world (non-FSU countries) migration
  rate was always negative (out-migration exceeded
  in-migration)

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Labor migration in Russia

• Most labor migrants come to Russia illegally.
  Researchers estimate over 4 million illegal
  migrants in Russia.
• Until 2005 the number of official migrants
  comprised no more than 5 of all labor migrants
• In January 2007 new legislation was adopted,
  which facilitated official registration for labor
  migrants

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Growth of official labor migrants in Russia
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Labor migrants to Russia in 2006 (official data)

• 16.9 came from Ukraine
• 10.4 came from Uzbekistan
• 9.7 came from Tadjikistan
• 10 came from Turkey
• 20.8 came from China
• 40 work in construction
• 30 work in trade

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According to surveys

• 70 of migrants are men
• Mean age 32-33 years
• 35-40 have 3 or more dependents
• About 50 had no stable work in their country of
  origin
• 40-50 could be called very poor before
  migration

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Recent tendencies in labor migration in Russia

• Proportion of migrants from Central Asia is
  increasing
• Cultural distance between migrants and local
  population is increasing 3 of migrants in
  Moscow and 17 in Astrakhan (Southern city) know
  Russian poorly
• Educational level of migrants is decreasing

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Education of migrants
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Internal migration in Russia

• Five zones (migration in 1991-2003)
• European accepting zone. Accepted 1.9 million
  people due to migration from other parts of
  Russia
• European North and Republics of Northern Caucasus
  lost population (about 20 of population
  received by European accepting zone)
• Eastern out-migration zone 60 of the Russian
  territory but only 10 of population. Provided
  about 60 of population received by European
  accepting zone (strong Western drift)

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Major migration zones of Russia
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Migration rate per 100,000 in 1997
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Proportion of migrants in population ()
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Changes in migration flows in Russia from 1992
to 2002
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Refugees and forced migrants in Russia, 1997
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Russia will depend on labor migrants

• By 2015 labor force in Russia will decrease by 8
  million people by 2025 by 18-19 million

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Forced deportations during Stalin period

• 1941-1942 preventive deportations of
  Germans, Finns, Greeks (about 1.2 million people)
• 1943-1944 deportations of retaliation.
  Crimea tatars, Chechens, Ingush, Balkar,
  Karachaev, Kalmyk
• 1944-1945 preventive deportations in the end of
  WWII (to clean-up the borders). Turks-meskhi
  from Georgia, many nations of Crimea, Western
  parts (Ukraine, Baltic countries). Totally about
  260 thousands

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Forced compensation migrations

• Lands left after deportations showed decline in
  agriculture productivity.
• Forced migration of Russians from nearby regions
  to keep production of collective farms. Many
  forced migrants fled the territories later.

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Population Aging
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Population Aging

• Population aging (also known as demographic
  aging) is a summary term that is used to describe
  for shifts in the age structure of a population
  toward people of older ages.
• Population aging is expected to be among the most
  prominent global demographic trends of the
  twenty-first century.

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Measures of Population Aging

• Percentage of elderly people of retirement ages
  in population is the most common measure of
  population aging
• A society is considered to be relatively old when
  the fraction of the population aged 65 years
  exceeds 8-10
• According to this definition, the populations of
  the Eastern Europe and Russia are becoming very
  old, because the percentage of elderly people
  reached the levels of 14.2 and 13.8
  respectively in 2005

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Proportion of older people in population

• The choice of the boundary for old age (65 years
  and over) is rather arbitrary
• Many demographers who study FSU and Eastern
  European countries also use 60 years cut-off
  (retirement age for many countries of FSU and the
  Eastern Europe).
• In this case a population is considered to be
  old, when the proportion aged 60 years exceeds
  10-12

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Time trends in the proportion of the elderly (age
60)
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Aging Index (elder-child ratio)

• The number of people aged 65 and over per 100
  youths under age 15
• Sometimes referred to as the elder-child ratio
• In 1975 all countries of the Eastern Europe had
  more youth than elderly (aging index below 100).
  Now all of them except Moldova have more elderly
  than youth.

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Aging Index in European FSU countries
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Median age of population

• Median age of population is the age at which
  exactly half the population is older and another
  half is younger.
• Median age is an indicator based on statistical
  measure of location (sometimes mean and modal
  ages of population are also used)

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Time trends in median age of population
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Median age in some countries
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Any single indicator of population aging may be
misleading, because the age distribution of
population is often very irregular, reflecting
the scars of the past events (wars, economic
crises etc.), and it cannot be described just by
one number without significant loss of
information.
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Russian population pyramid, 2000
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Population with young age structure. Uzbekistan
in 1990
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Uzbekistan in 2000. Still young structure but
started to age
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Ukraine in 2000. An example of population with
advanced population aging
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An example of population with very advanced
population aging. Japan in 2000
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Intermediate variant with irregularity. United
States in 2000
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Demographic Determinants of Population Aging

• Declining fertility
• Increasing longevity
• Out-migration of youth

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Declining fertility

• Demographic studies demonstrated that the
  declining fertility (birth) rates has the
  greatest role in causing population aging
• Population aging happens because the declining
  fertility (birth) rates make recent cohorts
  smaller than the preceding ones, thus tilting the
  age distribution towards older ages.

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Total fertility rates in some FSU countries
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Declining fertility in the 1990s

• Rapid decline of fertility in FSU countries
  during the transition period
• Currently all countries of the Eastern Europe
  demonstrate fertility below the European level

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Increasing longevity

• The increase in life expectancy has two
  components, acting on population aging in the
  opposite directions.
• The first component is the mortality decline
  among infants, children and relatively young
  persons, having age below the population mean.
  This component of mortality decline is acting
  against population aging, because its effects
  (saving young lives) are similar to effects of
  increased fertility

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Increasing longevity (2)

• The second component of the increase in life
  expectancy is related to a new trend of mortality
  decline, which had emerged after the 1950s in the
  developed countries -- an accelerating decrease
  in mortality rates among the oldest-old (85
  years), and the oldest-old women in particular
• This second component of mortality decline, which
  is concentrated in older age groups, is becoming
  an important determinant of population aging
  (women in particular) in industrialized
  countries.

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Increasing longevity (3)

• The second component did not play a significant
  role in the aging of FSU populations so far.
  These countries demonstrated a decrease rather
  than increase in life expectancy during the
  1990s.
• The uncertainty in the future of mortality
  changes in FSU countries affects the quality of
  demographic forecasts of population aging in the
  countries of the Former Soviet Union.

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Life expectancy at age 65, 2003-2005
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The role of immigration

• Immigration usually slows down population aging,
  because immigrants tend to be younger.
• In Russia immigration during the 1990s partially
  alleviated the effects of population aging

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The role of emigration

• Emigration of working-age adults accelerates
  population aging, as it is observed now in many
  FSU countries nations (like Moldova).
• Many FSU countries (with exception of Russia,
  Belarus and recently Kazakhstan) lose young
  population due to migration

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Role of migration within Russia

• Within Russia the migration processes accelerate
  population aging in rural regions of European
  North and Center (due to out-migration of youth)
  and slow down it in big cities like Moscow.
• Rural population in Russia is older than urban
  population despite higher fertility.
• Population aging is particularly prominent among
  rural women in Russia.
• While the proportion of women aged 65 in Russia
  is 16 percent, some regions of Central and
  North-Western Russia have population of older
  women that exceeds 30 percent

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Population aging in Russia during the 1990s

• Declining fertility and increasing young adult
  mortality accelerated population aging
• On the other hand, immigration and declining
  child and infant mortality helped to alleviate
  the effects of population aging

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Population aging in Russia

• Russian population still remains to be relatively
  younger compared to other European countries
  including countries of the Easter Europe.
• Currently Russia does not age rapidly but this
  situation will change after 2010 when numerous
  postwar generations reach age 60, which will
  result in a rapid aging of the Russian
  population.

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Percent of population at retirement ages, 1995