Scenarios and Decision Support Systems

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Scenarios andDecision Support Systems

• Monika Zurek
• FAO, Rome
• Greg Kiker
• University of Florida

GECAFS Caribbean Meeting, 30 Aug 05
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Overview of the talk

• Looking into the future
• What are scenarios? Why use scenarios?
• Decision Support Systems
• The GECAFS scenarios component

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Looking into the future

• Out of curiosity
• For scientific exploration
• For decision-making
• Decisions are based on expected outcomes and the
• trade-offs they imply
• Decisions involve uncertainty about how the
  future will unfold
• For planning purposes/strategic planning exercise

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Sources of Uncertainty when thinking about the
Future
Ignorance
Understanding is limited
Surprise
The unexpected and the novel can alter
directions
Volition
Human choice matters
Source P. Raskin
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Methods for looking into the future

• Predictions are seen by the public and decision
  makers as things that will happen no matter what
  they do.
• Forecast is the best estimate from a particular
  method, model, or individual.
• Projections are heavily dependent on assumptions
  about drivers and boundary conditions they often
  assume that these will not change. Projections
  lead to "if this, then that" statements.
• Scenarios

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Scenario Definitions

• Plausible stories about how the future might
  unfold from existing patterns, new factors and
  alternative human choices. The stories can be
  told in the language of both words and numbers
  (Raskin, in press).
• Plausible descriptions of how the future may
  develop, based on a coherent and internally
  consistent set of assumptions about key
  relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic
  2000).
• A tool for ordering ones perceptions about
  alternative future environments in which ones
  decision might be played out (Schwartz 1996).
• Plausible alternative futures, each an example
  of what might happen under particular assumptions
  (MA).

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Why use scenarios?

• Purpose of scenarios
• Information dissemination
• Scientific exploration
• Decision-making tool
• Understanding all factors influencing the future
• Robust strategies that work under different
  worlds
• ? Different process of stakeholder involvement
  in scenario development
• ?Understanding and communicating the main
  assumptions on which people base their notion of
  the future

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Types of scenarios

• Exploratory vs. anticipatory scenarios
• Baseline vs. alternative/policy scenarios
• Qualitative vs. quantitative scenarios, or a
  combination

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Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios

• exploratory scenarios
• present -gt future
• to explore uncertainties/driving
  forces/developments
• to test impacts of implementing specific policies
• anticipatory scenarios (also normative
  scenarios)
• present lt- future
• to investigate how specific end state can be
  reached
• to show how to achieve environmental targets

Source Henrichs, EEA 2003
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Baseline vs Alternative Scenarios

• baseline scenarios (also business-as-usual
  scenarios)
• describe a future development / state in which
  no new policies or measures are implemented
  apart from those already adopted or agreed upon
• alternative scenarios (also policy scenarios)
• take into account new policies or measures
  additional to those already adopted or agreed
  upon and/or that assumptions on key driving
  forces diverge from those depicted in a baseline
  scenario.

Source Henrichs, EEA 2003
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Qualitative vs Quantitative Scenarios

• qualitative scenarios
• are narrative descriptions of future developments
• (i.e. presented as storylines, diagrams, images,
  etc.).
• quantitative scenarios
• are numerical estimates of future developments
• (i.e. presented as tables, graphs, maps, etc.)
• usually based on available data, past trends
  and/or mathematical models.

Source Henrichs, EEA 2003
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Steps in a scenario exercise

• Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder
  involvement
• Get creative
• Think about the long history
• Identify main areas of uncertainty (focal
  questions)
• Identify main drivers of change
• Develop first set of storylines
• Critically assess storylines (consider shocks and
  surprises)
• Decide on modeling capacity
• Evaluate scenario implications
• Stakeholder feedback session iterations
• Final write up communication

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Good scenarios should ...

• ... be plausible (or not implausible)
• ... be internally consistent and coherent
• ... be constructed with rigour, detail
  creativity
• ... meet the goals of scenario exercise!!!

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Decision Support Systems

• Many definitions, many visions, many versions
• DSS Integrate Tools
• Models
• Databases
• Visualization (GIS, graphics, charts)
• Decision analysis (MCDA, trade-off analysis,
  linear programming)

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Example DSS QnD System
Reset Button
Warning Lights
Tabbed panes with several time series charts
Mouse-driven Chart and Text Display
Spatial Maps of Ecosystem Indicators
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Challenges in Building DSS

• DSS almost always focus on one sectors (or
  disciplines) tools and concepts
• Model integration is difficult and technically
  challenging
• Not helpful in unearthing assumptions
• Transparency versus Ease of Use
• Integration with scenario planning - More gaps
  than links

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Socio-Economic Drivers

• CARSEA Scenarios
• Neo-Plantation Economy
• Quantity Over Quality
• Growing Asymmetries
• Diversify Together
• Tourist visits, foreign investment, external
  prices, etc.

QnDJamaica Version 0.0

• Stochastic relationships
• Time series values
• Incremental change

Climatic Drivers

• QnD Scenarios
• Neo-Plantation with mild Climate Change
• Neo-Plantation with intense Climate Change
• Etc

• Climate Scenarios
• Precipitation
• Hurricane Intensity/ Frequency
• Sea Level Rise

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How the scenarios method has been used so far

• Strategic planning exercises during cold war
  period
• Future studies in 1970s (e.g. Club of Rome)
• Royal Dutch Shell develops scenarios method for
  business planning in 1970/80s
• Scenarios used as conflict management tool
  (Montefleur scen. in SA, Colombia)
• Scenarios exercises as part of integrated,
  global, environmental assessments, such as the
  IPCC, GEO, MA

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GEO-3 Scenarios

• Global Environmental Outlook by UNEP

Sustainability First pictures a world in which a
new development paradigm emerges in response to
the challenge of sustainability, supported by
new, more equitable values and institutions.
Source UNEP (2000)
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SRES-IPCC Scenarios

• Special Report on Emission Scenarios by IPCC
• IPCC scenarios widely used (e.g. unfccc
  negotiations)
• GHG emission up to 2100
• 4 scenario families
• A1 market driven,
• A2 fragmented dev.,
• B1 market policy,
• B2 local green solution,

Source Nakicenovic et al (2000)
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The Scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment
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GECAFS research focus

• Classifying and characterizing the major food
  systems existing today for GEC studies,
• Investigating the vulnerability of existing food
  systems to GEC and its consequences for different
  parts of society,
• Sketching plausible future changes in
  environmental and socioeconomic conditions that
  will effect food systems,
• Based on the analysis of plausible futures,
  devising decision support systems for the
  formulation of diverse policy-instruments to
  adapt global food system to GEC.

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Scenarios Component Research Questions

• What are plausible future changes in
  environmental and socio-economic conditions that
  will affect food systems?
• What elements of global scenarios are most
  important for regional-level food system
  analyses?
• How best can global scenarios be linked to the
  regional scale in order to capture regional-level
  factors relevant to food systems?

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Global scenarios to be used for GECAFS
IPCC GEO3 MA A1 Policy first Global
Orchestration A2 Market first Order
from Strength B1 Security first
TechnoGarden B2 Sustainability first Adapting
Mosaic
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Linking global and regional scenario exercises
Global Scenarios
Preparatory phase
Feedback
IGP
CAR
SAF
Regional GECAFS Scenarios
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Objectives of the meeting

• Update participants on the latest GECAFS
  developments
• Familiarize participants with the concepts,
  purpose and methodology of scenarios/plausible
  futures development
• Discuss and agree on the main uncertainties for
  the region with respect to food systems and
  global environmental change developments
• Develop focal questions for the Caribbean GECAFS
  scenarios and begin the scenario development
  process
• Discuss and decide on scenario quantification

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Steps for building the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios

• Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder
  involvement
• Get creative
• Think about the long history
• Identify main areas of uncertainty (focal
  questions)
• Identify main drivers of change
• Develop first set of storylines
• Critically assess storylines (consider shocks and
  surprises)
• Decide on modeling capacity
• Evaluate scenario implications
• Stakeholder feedback session iterations
• Final write up communication