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AWB Limited - International Roadshow


Australian Wheat Board created in World War I, privatised in 1999 ... Manages supply chain infrastructure to move grain from paddock to international customers ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: AWB Limited - International Roadshow

Investor Presentation June 2005
AWB - a snapshot
  • Australian Wheat Board created in World War I,
    privatised in 1999 and listed as AWB Limited
    (AWB) on Australian Stock Exchange in August 2001
  • Market capitalisation of 1.5 billion revenues
    of 9 billion (including Pool revenue) and
    shareholder funds in excess of 1 billion
  • Consistently out performed the SP / ASX 200
    since listing
  • Markets wheat to more than 50 countries
  • Australian footprint includes more than 430
    outlets across Australia with a spread of more
    than 2,700 staff reaching about 100,000 farmers

What we have achieved
B class shareholders
Our scorecard to date
Net Profit Production volume
Return on average equity
Earnings per share Dividend per share
Share price since listing
At least 27 cps, subject to normal seasonal
conditions on the east coast
Pre goodwill amortisation
What we have achieved
  • Acquired Landmark in August 2003 for around 825
    million enterprise value
  • Integration of Landmark 95 complete
  • EBIT enhancements for 2003/04 of 13 million
    exceeded target of 5-10 million. On track to
    achieve 20 - 25 million this year.
  • Established fertiliser joint venture ELF
  • AWB constructed 21 grain centres with a total
    capacity of over 3 million tonnes
  • Strategic focus on customer management,
    introduction of CMS system
  • Successful development of international business
    Geneva, India
  • Sold 2.5 million tonnes to China, the first
    significant sale since 1996
  • Positioned to tap into growing Asian markets
  • Progressive business expansion

What we are today
Merch 1.2b sales
Business characteristics
Business Stream Drivers
Pool Management Services Manages the pooling and global marketing of Australian wheat Manages grain from point of delivery to point of consumption AWB National Pool receival tonnes AUD/USD exchange rate US wheat price per tonne
Rural Services (Landmark) Major supplier of agribusiness products and services including merchandise, fertiliser, livestock, wool marketing, real estate, finance and insurance Seasonal conditions Livestock prices and volume Wool prices and volume Crop production
Grain Acquisition Trading Responsible for domestic grain trading Exporting non-wheat grains such as canola and sorghum Tonnes sold wheat and other grains Other origin grains sold Margins per tonne
Business characteristics (contd)
Business Stream Drivers
Finance Risk Management Provides harvest finance against majority of grain delivered to the AWB National Pool Range of price risk management products for growers, domestic and international customers through AWB RiskAssist AWB National Pool receival tonnes AWB National Pool Payment Options take-up Average wheat price Loan book interest rate
Supply Chain Other Investments Manages supply chain infrastructure to move grain from paddock to international customers AWB National Pool receival tonnes Receival volume through grain centres Price per storage
AWB Strategy
Targets will be achieved by implementing three
dominant business strategies
AWBs overarching goal is to implement an
Integrated Business Model...
Three growth areas
  • Fertiliser and merchandise are the main areas
    targeted for growth
  • Cross selling
  • Leverage buying power in the network
  • Improve merchandise and supply chain effectiveness

Leading position in Australian rural services
  • Increase product base build on AWBs natural
    advantage to provide a wider range of products,
    better interest rates, and streamline credit
  • Specific areas targeted for growth include
    lending, deposits, wealth management and general

Leading rural financial services and insurance
  • Continue to focus on mandate to maximise grower
  • Expand the suite of commodities, origins and
    risks managed
  • Strengthen the differentiated position for
    Australian wheat

Australias leading global grain trading business
The way ahead
To be both the primary producers and end-use
consumers business partner of choice
  • Acquisition expected to achieve target 15 ROE by
  • EPS accretive in FY 2004 and by more than 35 in
  • of PBT not related to Australian wheat gt20 in
  • Landmark will diversify AWBs earnings base and
    reduce volatility of AWBs earnings
  • AWB Group will achieve 15 ROE in the medium term
  • Stable dividend policy
  • Strengthen core business, in particular preserve
    and enhance the value of the Single Desk system
  • Grow and diversify to improve the quality of the
    earnings base and reduce wheat harvest volatility

Outlook 2004/05
  • Earnings
  • AWBs 2005 earnings forecast is expected to be
    comparable to 2004 earnings, assuming improved
    seasonal conditions on the east coast to
    compliment the excellent start in the west
  • Dividend
  • Increase in interim dividend to 16 cents per
    share, fully franked
  • Final dividend expected to be no less than 11
    cents per share, fully franked
  • Full year dividend to increase from 25 cents per
    share in 2004, to at least 27 cents per share in

Outlook - global wheat market
  • Production is slightly down and stocks remain
  • New crop conditions around the world are good
  • FSU rebound after poor 2003/04 crop has
    contributed to increasing major exporter carry
    out stocks
  • Markets have retraced from highs of 367 cents per
    bushel set in mid March to around 310 cents per
  • 21-23 million tonnes is expected from 2005/06
    domestic harvest subject to improved seasonal
    conditions on the east coast
  • Current conditions in WA are excellent
  • Solid performance in international grain trading

Outlook other commodities
  • Livestock
  • Beef prices expected to tail off with increased
    export competition from North and South America
  • Lamb prices set to remain positive with increased
    demand from export markets
  • Real Estate
  • Rural real estate market remains promising
  • Financial Services
  • Strong medium term growth is forecast for the
    financial services business
  • Merchandise Fertiliser
  • Merchandise Fertiliser sales dependent on rain
    on the east coast

Going forward
  • Despite a difficult outlook, we are confident
    that Australian agriculture can be globally
  • We have comparative advantage
  • Freight advantage to Asian region
  • Progress on trade reform will improve market
  • AWB and Landmark can continue to capitalise on
    opportunities with our business model

  • 1. 2005 Half Year Results
  • 2. Wheat prices, futures global supply
  • 3. Rural services
  • 4. Financial services
  • 5. IFRS update

APPENDIX 1 2005 Half Year Results
Solid result in a tough environment
Financial Result - half year ended 31st March

Outside Equity Interests
Half year highlights
  • Net profit after tax of 91.3 million, up 69,
    underlying net profit after tax of 66.6 million,
    down 3
  • Earnings per share of 26.6 cents, with an interim
    dividend of 16 cents per share (fully franked)
  • Profit on sale of investment in Futuris of 55.2m
    (41.8m after tax)
  • Landmark integration on track to deliver year two
    synergy targets
  • Pool performed well given tough global
  • Expansion of international trading with a new
    office in New Delhi, India
  • Harvest loan book peaked at 1.1 billion
  • Landmark lending book was nearly 1.3 billion
  • Increased merchandise and fertiliser sales by 6
  • Establishment of strategic partnership in
    fertiliser with Elders WMC Resources

demonstrating strength through diversification
Despite a 17 decrease in wheat production over
2003/04 harvest, earnings have dropped by only 3
NPAT pre significant items
Strong yield for shareholders
Shareholder Summary
AWB continues to be a strong yield stock
Statement of financial performance
Statement of financial position
million 6 months to 31 March 2005
Profit before tax Depreciation amortisation Profit on sale of n/c assets Other non-cash items Increase in working capital balances Finance options for growers Tax paid Payments for ppe (net) Proceeds on sale of investments (net) Proceeds from issue of shares Net increase in interest bearing liabilities Dividends paid 117.7 41.2 (58.4) (5.7) (300.0) (184.8) (42.9) (1.5) 151.7 8.3 300.0 (38.0)
Net decrease in cash held (12.4)
property, plant equipment
Capital expenditure
million For the 6 months ended 31-Mar-05 For the 6 months ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Grain centres construction 5.0 3.8 32
System Development Other Plant Equipment 19.0 10.7 78
New building costs - 7.2 -100
Total 24.0 21.7 11
Depreciation 22.6 22.7 -
Pool Management Services
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Pool Management Services 11.4 11.8 (3)
  • 2004 Wheat Marketing Review findings showed that
    the Single Desk is being well managed by AWB
  • Following recommendations from the review, the
    performance based remuneration model has been
  • As out-performance is reported, Pool Management
    Services expects improved earnings in the second
    half of 2005
  • Strong sales performance

challenging environment strong performance
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Grain Acquisition Trading 32.7 59.5 (45)
  • Trading operates on a fund of funds basis
  • There has been a return to more normal freight
    market conditions
  • AWB Geneva continues to be a strong revenue
    platform for the group
  • New office opened in New Delhi, India
  • Australia grain trading reduced its EBIT
    contribution on lower volumes and margins (mainly
    due to seasonal conditions)
  • Livestock trading (previously managed in the
    Landmark business) contributed strong revenue
    growth to the Group

presence in both domestic and international
grain markets
Supply Chain Other Investments
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Supply Chain Other Investments (2.5) 0.1 -
  • Receivals through the Grain Centres were down 0.5
    million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes due to
    adverse seasonal conditions coupled increased
    competitive pressures
  • Melbourne Port Terminal and overseas investments
    (Five Star Flour Mills in Egypt and AWB Zennoh in
    Japan) maintained their EBIT contributions at a
    similar level to the prior year
  • Efficiencies within the supply chain positively
    impacts the Pool Services management fee

adverse seasonal conditions impact results
Finance Risk Management
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Finance Risk Management 21.8 21.8 -
  • Contribution by Financial Services decreased
    while Risk Management increased
  • Market share and margins were maintained in a
    highly competitive environment, although wheat
    production and export prices declined
  • AWBs risk management businesses (AWB Riskassist,
    Basis Pool and the over-the-counter options desk
    in AWBs Portland, USA office) provided increased
    contribution to the result mainly due to
    increased activity in Portland, USA office

highly competitive environment but still the
market leader
Rural Services (Landmark)
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Rural Services (Landmark) 35.3 32.9 7
  • Higher earnings across all activities (other than
    wool) plus the recognition of profit on the sale
    of assets was partially offset by higher
    overhead costs (predominantly incentive payments,
    training and motor vehicle costs)
  • Merchandise and fertiliser sales increased by 6
  • Livestock profitability remained comparable due
    to higher cattle prices offset by reduced
    volumes and lower sheep prices offset by
    increased volumes
  • Real Estate sales increased through increased
    prices driven by increased demand for prime
    rural properties
  • Finance profitability increased 4 due to growth
    in the loan book
  • Insurance profitability increased 3 due to 1
    growth in gross written premium

lowest cost full service distribution network
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Corporate (3.4) (13.3) 74
  • Combination of head office costs offset by
    miscellaneous revenue items
  • Corporate overheads decreased mainly due to
    non-recurring integration and restructuring costs
    associated with the Landmark acquisition incurred
    in the prior year
  • Dividends from Futuris of 4 million

EBIT summary of business operations
Integration update
On track to deliver year two synergy targets
Integrated Business Model generating new revenue
growth opportunities
1. Customer Management
Integrated customer management developed across
the distribution network combining systems and
processes to better understand and serve our
Back office integration is complete, our focus
has shifted to implementation of the IBM
2. Product Development
New products and bundles being developed
incorporating products from across Landmark and
AWB range to better meet our customers needs
3. Channel Strategy
Channel management to optimise AWB-Landmarks
combined distribution network
APPENDIX 2 Wheat prices, futures global
World wheat production
  • World wheat production increased by 71 million
    tonnes to record 625 million tonnes in 2004 after
    consecutive problematic years in 2002 and 2003.
  • Initial USDA forecast for 2005 historically large
    at 615 million tonnes
  • Second consecutive year of large crops forecast
  • EU-25 136 mmt in 04 followed by 128m forecast
    this year
  • FSU 86m and 87m resp
  • Major Exp 200m and 190m
  • China 91m and 93m
  • US crop forecast unchanged at 59 mmt

World wheat production consumption
Source USDA 2005
World wheat trade 5 major exporters
2004/05 2005/06 estimated Source USDA
World stocks
  • World wheat ending stocks have rebounded since
    the 2003/04 historical low in 2004/05 and are
    forecast unchanged in 2005/06 around 147-150mmt.
  • However of these stocks 35-40mmt are in China of
    which forecasts have proved historically
    unreliable. The trend erosion in world wheat
    ending stocks is primarily due to forecast
    declining Chinese stocks with major exporter
    stocks building.
  • World stocks an unreliable indicator of price due
    to Chinese stock uncertainty, reduced global
    number of government controlled balance sheets
    and importers and increased number of smaller
    private sector importers using least cost
    inventory management.
  • 5 Major exporter stocks continuing to build and
    becoming burdensome forecast at 57mmt in 05/06
    versus 55mmt in 04/05 and 38mmt in 03/04.
  • World feed demand increasing primarily in Europe
    due to oversupply of wheat versus competing

Chicago futures
  • US wheat futures complex continues to price in a
    modest risk premium versus historical fundamental
    price models due to row crop weather market
    uncertainty, long-only index fund participation
    and weaker USD regime
  • USDA forecast 2005/06 major exporter and US wheat
    fundamentals would suggest downside price risk
    through Sep subject to US corn supply
  • APW National Pool 2004/05 EPR remains at 199 FOB
    versus forecast 186 FOB for 2005/06 Pool
    primarily due to stronger AUD

The future
  • Increased production and export supply from the
    Russia and Ukraine likely over time
  • Exports from the Black Sea work initially into
    the Mediterranean, then Africa and the Middle
  • This is one of the major drivers for AWB to focus
    on increasing exports into Asian markets over the
    next five years
  • AWB exports into Asia in 2004 will be greater
    than 10 million tonnes for the first time

  • Downside price risk remains
  • Strong competition from Northern Hemisphere
    export origins to continue
  • World wheat balance sheet much more comfortable
    than 2003/04 able to withstand a medium scale
    supply shock going forward
  • Demand surprise risk increasing over time in both
    China and Sub-Continent
  • AWB confident of retaining 50 of Iraq import

APPENDIX 3 Rural Services
  • Merger of Wesfarmers Dalgety and IAMA in 2001
    resulted in Landmark becoming Australias largest
    rural merchandise distributor
  • Stores across Australia stock a range of animal
    health, cropping, fencing, fertiliser and farm
    hardware product
  • Merchandise products are distributed via 230
    company owned branches, 47 franchises and 120
    members and agents, and supported by over 200
    agronomists Australia wide

Merchandise overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Intense price competition Commoditisation of products Rationalisation of suppliers, particularly in the chemical sector Channel proliferation leading to increased competition in distribution Low demand for cotton inputs due to lower production, irrigation cuts and biotechnology Livestock carrying numbers reduced following drought with expected impact on Animal Health and management sales Cotton prospects improved with increased water availability Commoditisation of products 75 of chemical products expected to be off -patent by 2005 Generic products are becoming a bigger part of the farmers decision making process Operational improvement opportunities Meet all price points
a generic strategy will be important
  • Significant supplier of fertiliser distributing
    over 1 million tonnes per annum, as well as
    retailing liquid, trace element and specialist
  • The major fertiliser products are globally traded
    commodities, resulting in
  • Limited scope for differentiation between retail
    outlets and
  • Importer traders ensuring world price movements
    rapidly flow through to domestic price (i.e.

Fertiliser overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Limited product differentiation Large number of agents and dealers competing locally Requirement for logistics services in some markets Ongoing rationalisation of industry players Market volumes increasing Nitrogen use increasing Local prices driven by world prices Increased market share through acquisition of independents Cross sell bundled product offering
growing market share and volume is important
  • One of Australias largest marketers of livestock
  • Operating in all States and Territories
    throughout Australia
  • Handles 20 of livestock trading in Australia
  • Core business is sale of livestock through
    saleyards - 70 sold via auction
  • Livestock trading is also a part of the business
  • Landmark supplies processors, supermarket
    processors, lot feeders and live export markets

Livestock overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Pressure on core agency business from increased direct selling to processors Major competitors involved in vertical integration Private agents cutting commission rates to gain share Rationalisation of saleyards Increase business into grain fed markets Strong meat and live export markets Productivity improvements, saleyard rationalisation
prices are expected to remain strong
  • Handle approximately 25 of the National Wool
    Clip (500,000 bales)
  • Provide traditional broking / auction selling
    services as well as a comprehensive range of Risk
    Management products
  • 50 interest in Australian Wool Handlers AWH
    (with Elders) wool handling
  • Not involved in any downstream processing

Wool overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Strong competition for a record low volume of wool (sheep numbers at 96 million in 2003-04) Small, low cost regional brokers have increased market share Ongoing price discounting Rationalisation amongst brokers to occur Move from wool to meat likely to continue Fall in wool production has created an opportunity for industry rationalisation and consolidation Good prospects for sheep meat will assist building flock numbers Low levels of supply will provide support to wool prices
increased throughput is the key
Real Estate
  • Landmark real estate has two main activities

- Rural property sales - Residential property
Real Estate overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Metro and town real estate agents moving into small farm areas causing margin pressure Sophisticated players with marketing and sales representatives Low market share in residential real estate Limited capital Variable pay structure Outlook is for steady growth
good platform to grow residential market share
  • Opportunities exist to grow in most activities
  • Commodity prices expected to remain strong
  • Real Estate values expected to plateau

APPENDIX 4 Financial Services
Point of difference for Landmark Financial
What are our major initiatives
to be a broad-based rural and regional financial
services distributor with niche manufacturing
capability where we have a natural competitive
Lending Harvest Finance Deposits Insurance
Product Relationship pricing and bundling Cross sell and bundling programs Tap into commodity cashflows Fill product gaps
People Recruit and develop high calibre RFMs Specialist grain expertise FSRA skill accreditation Recruit and develop specialist staff
Process Enhanced loan platform Web enabled Improve client statements Full online proposition Supplier sales conversions Web enabled
Positioning Build FS brand with primary producers Reinforce strong brand with grain clients Build FS brand across rural, regional and metro Build FS brand across rural, regional and metro
A broad product range
Net Access
Harvest Finance
  • Term Loans
  • Seasonal Finance
  • Line of Credit
  • Fastrak Finance
  • Cheque Account
  • Debit Card
  • Blue Ribbon Online
  • Call Inv.
  • Term Deposit
  • General Insurance
  • Crop Insurance
  • Stud Livestock Insurance
  • Transit Insurance
  • Landmark Finance Online Plus
  • Transfer funds
  • Views statements
  • Pay bills
  • Harvest Loan
  • Flexible Drawdown Loan
  • Advanced Payment
  • Deferred Payment
  • 1.3b book
  • 0.6b book
  • 120m book
  • 3,500 clients
  • 0.9b book

Target a growing market
Harvest Finance Finance 2.1B GP 56m
Lending 37.2B GP 960m
Deposits 16.1B GP 64m
Insurance 0.8B GWP GP 91m
  • Moderate growth outlook
  • Lower credit risk, volatility and fewer losses
    (relative to commercial lending)
  • AWB-Landmark has 70 market share
  • Competition continues to intensify
  • Dominated by banks but Landmark has 600M
  • Moderate growth outlook
  • Increasingly complex covers required
  • Highly concentrated market

Strong opportunity to grow
Strengths Weaknesses
Distribution Network extensive branch network provides broad geographical representation in key rural regions and a platform for business origination, relationship management and local knowledge and presence Broad client base AWB and Landmark businesses provide large and diverse client contact points and relationship defining opportunities Deep Agribusiness Understanding The AWB-Landmark group of businesses collectively has at its disposal market leading knowledge of agribusiness Harvest Finance clear market leadership (70 market share), and strong influence over fund flows Agency agreement with Rabobank restricts lending effectiveness and pricing flexibility and causes channel conflict Moderate brand association market perception that the Landmark brand is not as highly associated with FS expertise as against other market players Product gaps exist in all product groups - particularly insurance and wealth

Opportunities Threats
New funding arrangements access to market leading products Develop cross business relationship pricing model Market leading risk pricing leverage deep agribusiness understanding to better price risk and selectively manufacture niche products Address key product gaps to allow for more attractive packaging proposition Increasingly competitive market declining number of clients and increasing number of competitors Competitors increasingly view Landmark as a threat and move to leverage core client base away from Landmark
Cross sell benefits identified
Lending Cross Sell across AWB Proportion of each
client base also purchasing Lending
Financial Services Internal Cross Sell
Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products
Product No. Clients Lending Deposits Harvest Finance Insurance
Lending 4,400 N/A 95 13 30
Deposits 11,000 40 N/A 8 20
Harvest Finance 19,000 3 5 N/A 16
Insurance 29,000 5 8 11 N/A
15 of Wool customers also hold a lending product
11 of financial services customers hold both
Insurance and Harvest Finance
Outlook for the business
Drivers of Near Term Success
Current Situation
  • New supplier agreement (lending)
  • People development productivity
  • Influence and control of client purchasing
    behaviours including cross sell (customer
    solutions) opportunities
  • Information and understanding of client is core
    competitive strength
  • People development and enabling systems and
    processes have room for improvement
  • Challenge is to grow business revenues while
    protecting base and enhance position during Rabo

Distribution Platform
Staged Approach
Build/Source Capability - Transitional
  • Build client interface (single view of client and
    intuitive support tools for servicing clients

  • Product breadth
  • Sales service capability people and systems
  • Leads referral management
  • Performance management systems

Next 3 years
  • Rural customers traditionally under serviced
  • Service based proposition
  • Leverage customer insights across all business
  • Business partnership

A-IFRS impact
  • First A-IFRS compliant reporting will be 31 March
  • Project is managed in accordance with a
    documented governance and monitoring structure
  • Project is on schedule and AWB expects to fully
  • Major impacts
  • Goodwill impairment test
  • Expense share based payments
  • No hedge accounting for derivatives
  • Grain trading inventory at fair value

A-IFRS Analysis - High Impact
AASB Ref Description Impact
AASB 1 First Time adoption elections available No AASB 139 comparatives. No AASB 3 re-opening of business combinations No AASB 121 transfer of cumulative translation differences to opening retained earnings.
AASB 2 Expensing share based payments Black Scholes modelling of executive performance rights with 4 year amortisation period used for current AASB 1046 compliance. Other schemes expensed as incurred. Loan schemes currently a UIG proposed issue.
AASB 136 Goodwill impairment testing 30 September 2004 carrying value supported by impairment testing at 31 March 2005.
AASB 136 Other asset impairment testing Finalising cash generating unit assessment and impairment indicator identification.
AASB 102 Inventories Not applicable to commodity traders where fair value less costs to sell permitted. Landmark inventory remains lower of cost or net realisable value.
AASB 139 Derivative Hedges No hedge accounting sought. Full PL given onerous documentation and transaction matching requirements combined with complimentary treatment of inventory and forwards
A-IFRS Analysis - Low Impact
  • Addresses areas where widespread external
    publicity has created uncertainty, but assessment
    has confirmed as low impact at AWB
  • Embedded derivatives (AASB 139)
  • Comprehensive high level review by contract type
  • Detailed review of high risk contracts
  • No embedded derivatives identified
  • Income Tax (AASB 112)
  • Dependency on first consolidated tax return
    balance sheet
  • Comprehensive review indicates no material impact
  • FCTR (AASB 121, AASB 1)
  • No transfer of cumulative translation differences
    to opening retained earnings as AWB has no intent
    to divest
  • Landmark acquisition accounting (AASB 3, AASB 1)
  • No value in reopening acquisition
  • Pool Accounting
  • Not consolidated remains a special purpose
    reporting entity with ASIC exemption from annual
    and interim financial reporting
  • UIG Action Alert 05-02, Commodity Pooling
    Arrangements, The UIG received a presentation
    from representatives of AWB given the now
    consistent presentation of financial reports of
    pool managers in relation to commodity pools,
    members agreed that the UIG need not address
    these issues further at this time.

A-IFRS financial impact
For more information contact Delphine
Cassidy Head of Investor Relations Ph 61 3 9209
2404 Email
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