Anticipating changing skill needs in the UK R.A.Wilson and R.M Lindley*

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Anticipating changing skill needs in the
UKR.A.Wilson and R.M Lindley

• CEDEFOP/FAS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE on
• Systems, Institutional Frameworks and Processes
  for Early identification of Skill Needs,
• Dublin, 25-26 November 2004
• Contact details
• Institute for Employment
  ResearchUniversity of WarwickCOVENTRY, CV4
  7ALR.A.Wilson_at_warwick.ac.ukTel 44
  2476-523530

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Anticipating skill needs in the UK

• Needs and roles of different actors
• The changing institutional framework
• Methods approaches strengths weaknesses
• Overview of UK work
• Projections institutions role of the State
• Conclusions priorities for policy research

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Information needs,Institutional frameworks and
Statistical infrastructure
Changing Institutional frameworks
Different users different needs
Statistical infrastructure
What is done How it is done
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Who needs what?

• Different needs of key audiences
• Government/Policy makers
• beyond manpower planning
• increasing Regional local involvement
• Education and training providers (plus quasi
  governmental bodies, including regulatory
  awarding institutions)
• need for useful signals
• Employers sectoral perspectives
• need to get employers views but how?
• Individuals/Households/Career Guidance/Unions
  (worker representatives, etc)
• career choices

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The importance of the institutional and legal
framework

• Cultural, historical and institutional contexts
• - real differences in
• Education, training skill formation
• Anticipation of future needs
• Some differences are related to data availability
  
• Statistical infrastructure

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The changing UK institutional legal context
increasing emphasis on skills

• The role of national Government
• Department for Education and Skills (DfES), and
  many others departments)
• Devolution Regional Development Agencies
• Education training providers
• Colleges, Universities, QCA (NVQs, etc)
• Training and Enterprise Councils (TECs) gtgt
• (Local) Learning and Skills Councils (LLSCs)
• Employers their representatives
• Industry Training Boards/Industry Training
  Organisations (ITBsgtgtITOs)gtgt
• Sector Skills Councils (SSCs)
• Sector Skills Development Agency (SSDA)
• Careers guidance companiesgtgt Connexions

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Involvement of social partners

• Different levels of involvement impact
• National level (TUC/CBI Government interaction)
  
• Generally indirect (via representation on
  committees organised by government)
• Sectoral Level (NTOs, SSDA, SSCs)
• Regional Local Level
• Establishment/ Company level

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Methods and approaches to anticipating changing
skill needs

• Quantitative methods
• Ask employers? use of surveys
• Quantitative (Econometric) Models
• National forecasts
• Regional / local
• Sectoral
• More qualitative approaches
• Sectoral studies/observatories
• Scenario development

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Pros and Cons of alternative approaches to
anticipating skill needs

• Disadvantages
• May be very subjective
• Inconsistent
• Myopic
• Can too easily focus on the margins
• Data hungry
• Costly
• Not everything is quantifiable
• Impression of precision
• Inconsistent across sectors
• Partial
• Inconsistency
• Non-systematic
• Can be inconsistent

• Advantages
• Direct user/ customer involvement
• Comprehensive
• Consistent
• Transparent
• Quantitative
• Strong on sectoral specifics
• Holistic
• Direct user involvement

• Approach
• Surveys of employers, etc, asking about skill
  deficiencies skill gaps
• Formal, national level, quantitative, model based
  projections
• Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies (using
  quantitative (model based) and qualitative tools)
• Focus groups/round tables and other Delphi style
  methods

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Statistical infrastructure for quantitative
forecasting

• Link between data available methods used
• Technological advances data availability
  processing power
• Huge increase in ability to handle process data
• Improvements in data availability accessibility
  Significant investments in methodological
  advances
• Improvements in techniques and understanding
• But too much emphasis on micro data?
• Key requirements for quantitative modelling
• National accounts (macro/sectoral models)
• Time series on employment by sectors
• Information on occupational and qualification
  structure within sectors (SIC SOC)

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Anticipating skill needs in the UK an overview

• Pioneering efforts
• Britains Medium-term Employment Prospects /
  Economic change and Employment Policy
• use of Multi-sectoral macro models econometric
  techniques
• Projections of Occupations and Qualifications
• Working Futures most detailed projections ever
  in the UK
• National Employer Skills Surveys great detail
  but the right priorities?

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Evaluation assessment

• Accuracy in social science forecasting a
  chimera?
• Usefulness is the key criterion?
• Revealed preference continued government support
  
• LMI as a public good ambivalent attitude of
  successive UK governments
• But support in UK not at the same levels as in
  some countries

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Projections and Institutions the role of the
State

• General Central government ambivalence
• arms length treatment of modelling generally
  forecasting in particular
• use of ad hoc studies
• lack of central scrutiny of modelling work
• continuous change gtgt loss of corporate memory
• lack of recognition of arguments for public
  provision of LMI based on economics of
  information and market failure
• Education, training and employment an acute case?

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Increased local/regional sectoral focus

• Local/regional
• Devolution Local delivery (TECs, LLSCs, RDAs,
  devolved Parliaments, Assemblies)
• Improved access to local data increased
  computing power
• Local Economy Forecasting
• Sectoral
• Industry Training Boards (ITBs)gtgtNational
  Training Organisations (NTOs)gtgtSector Skills
  Development Agency (SSDA) Sector Skills
  Councils (SSCs)
• Sectoral model building (CITB/EITB)
• Other sectors more qualitative approaches
• Relevance of Standard Systems of Classification?
• Detail for details sake? Need to recognise
  generic nature of many issues

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Need for Technocratic Dialogue

• Presenting or tabling for expert scrutiny
• Different audiences, e.g.
• those with macro-economic expertise
• sectoral specialists - product/labour markets
• VET specialists in particular sectors
• those concerned with particular occupational
  areas
• those focusing on regional and/or local labour
  markets
• Value of alternative approaches
• qualitative quantitative
• Exploring coherent alternative stories
• Need for new frameworks to facilitate dialogue
• Value of Dialogue as reflective practice

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Conclusions

• Importance of institutional frameworks
• Importance of statistical infrastructure but
  still not ideally tailored to meet real needs?
• Need for a range of approaches benefits of
  dialogue
• Need to develop new frameworks to facilitate
  dialogue
• New opportunities offered by technological
  innovations
• New priorities for research primary data
  collection, but need to focus on core skill needs
  not just at the margins

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Further information

• Department for Educations ands Skills /Skillsbase
  (Projections of Occupations Qualifications)
  http//skillsbase.dfes.gov.uk/
• Learning Skills Council (National Employers
  Skills Survey) http//www.lsc.gov.uk/National/def
  ault.htm
• Sector Skills Development Agency (Working
  Futures) http//www.ssda.org.uk/
• National Guidance Research Forum
  http//www.guidance-research.org/
• Warwick Institute for Employment Research
  (Publications)
• http//www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/