Life Cycle Modeling Integrator (LCMI) (Your Decision Support Toolkit)

1
Life Cycle Modeling Integrator (LCMI) (Your
Decision Support Toolkit)

• Studies Analysis Department
• LOGCOM
• 16 Aug 2005

2
Background

• July 2004
• HQMC IL CG testimony to Congress We will have a
  total life cycle management assessment tool by
  Sep 04...
• Sep 2004
• Initial capability, web-based prototype completed
  (Phase I)
• Aug 2005
• Way Ahead for LCMI?

3
Decision Makers Paradigm

• Decision Support Tools help answer the three
  fundamental questions facing decision makers
• How do I know when I have a problem?
• Appropriate/Adequate Metrics
• Whats causing the problem?
• Root Cause Analysis
• What options or COAs exist that will solve my
  problem?
• Estimating / Forecasting impact of feasible
  solutions...choosing optimal course of action

4
LCMI Design Paradigm

• Integrated Decision Support Tools Needed At
• Tactical
• Operational
• Strategic
• Program
• Enterprise
• Tools Must Be Flexible
• One Watch
• Arguing over whos spreadsheet is correct wastes
  time
• Tools compliment not replace
• Policy, Processes, Systems and People

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A Growing Decision Support Capability

• LCMI Provides Capability To Support Decision
  Makers Paradigm
• Appropriate / Adequate Metrics
• MERIT
• Critical TAMCN Model
• Root Cause Analysis
• Total Support Cost Model
• Fault Isolation Model
• Estimating Impact, Exploring Implications Of COAs

6
A Real World Example Of Decision Makers Paradigm

• There Is An Asset Shortage Problem
• How do we know there are not enough assets?
• What is causing the problem?
• What is the best way we can solve the problem?

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Growing Demand for Equipment Asset Availability
Impacts Readiness
MARES Data By MEF
120
Thousands
100
80
AUTH Quantity
60
40
20
0
04-Jul-04
04-Jan-04
04-Feb-04
04-Mar-04
04-Apr-04
04-May-04
04-Jun-04
04-Aug-04
04-Sep-04
04-Oct-04
04-Nov-04
04-Dec-04
04-Jan-05
04-Feb-05
04-Mar-05
04-Apr-05
04-May-05
Date
Hawaii
Bases Posts and Stations
IV Reserves
III MEF Okinawa, JP
II MEF Camp Lejeune, NC
Prepositioned (MPS/NALMEB)
I MEF Camp Pendleton, CA
VII MEF
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Growing Demand for Equipment Asset Availability
Impacts Readiness
Hawaii
Bases Posts and Stations
IV Reserves
III MEF Okinawa, JP
II MEF Camp Lejeune, NC
Prepositioned (MPS/NALMEB)
I MEF Camp Pendleton, CA
VII MEF
S Rate
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What impacts asset availability?
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Requirements Assessment and Distribution Model

• What are the total requirements?
• Known and emerging (LOGAIS Excel)
• Do we have enough assets to cover them?
• LOGAIS Excel

• Methodology
• Builds requirements from various sources
• Uses HQMC directed priorities
• Redistributes assets to MEF level

• Model Capability
• Easily Tailorable
• Current
• Quick

DEMO
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Another Paradigm Example

• Attrition Has An Impact on Asset Availability
• Can we measure the attrition ?
• What can we expect to lose in the future?
• What is the cost of recovery?

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Attrition Assessment Forecasting Model

• What are our actual equipment losses?
• What are our forecasted losses?

• Methodology
• Ties historical data to optempo
• Requires assumptions about future optempo
• Uses simulation to forecast losses

• Model Capability
• Easily Tailorable
• Current
• Quick

DEMO
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Critical TAMCN Model

• What are our most critical TAMCNs?
• A quad model application

• Methodology
• Uses both historical trends and current posture
• State of the art statistical algorithms

• Model Capability
• Copes with dynamic environment
• Current
• Quick

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How Do You Define Critical?

• Most Expensive to Repair?
• Greatest Replacement Cost
• Least Reliable?
• Hardest to Maintain?
• Greatest Attrition Rate?
• Oldest?
• Greatest Increase in Maintenance Effort?
• Greatest Increase in Sustainment Costs?
• ?

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Three Dimensional Data(Difficult To Distinguish
Between The Points)
16
Same Data... Different Perspective(Clearly
Distinguishable Clusters of PEIs)
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A More Realistic Example
One Possible Set Of Essential Characteristics

• Allowance
• Possessed
• Excess
• Deficiency
• Deadlined
• CAT M Echelon 2
• CAT M Echelon 3
• CAT M Echelon 4

• Age this year
• Life Expectancy
• Damaged Repairable
• Damaged Not Repairable
• On "Mission Essential" List
• Affordability Index
• (Support Costs) / (Replacement Cost)(MR Rate)
• Average Equipment Density

Reduce 15 Dimensions to one
DEMO
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Partnering For Greater Success

• Engineering Analysis
• NSWC, Crane
• Cost Analysis
• VAMSOC, Navy
• Asset Visibility
• BCS3, Army
• GTN 21, Transportation Command
• LOGSA

• Reliability, Availability, Maintainability
  Analysis
• Systems Command
• Field process analysis
• Log Modernization Team
• Supply chain performance improvement
• DLA

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Summary

• Decision Support Tools are powerful and effective
  enablers
• Integration is a key component for success
• Several DST capabilities completed
• Multiple prototype partial tools available
• Future needs can be met
• SA is a Marine Corps asset

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Automate Display DLM 50/50 Report
Customer Wait Time Race Track Graphical Model
MPF Regeneration Cycle Time Estimation Model
Readiness Staircase Graphical Model
Personalized Graphical Drag Drop Capability
Automation and Graphical Display of CORE
S2
D7
E10
E9
E11
D5
Redistribution Model
TLCM Critical Decision Point Graphical Display
Depot Maintenance Serialized Tracking Tool
Depot Level Maintenance Program (DLMP)
E8
E7
D6
D9
Identifying the Procurement Gap Cost Graphical
Model
Classification of Equipment for Depot Level
Maintenance
Critical TAMCN Model
LCMI
E5
E6
D8
Capability Requirements Gap Model
Depot Optimal Capacity Planning Tool
Optimal PEI Rotation Schedule Model
PM Contingency Recovery Strategy Tool
E2
D4
E3
E4
DLM Requirements Determination Model
Quad Model
Fault Isolation Model
DERO Model
PEI Attrition Forecast Model
Partial/Prototype Capability
R1
S1
D2
D3
R3
Current Capability
Mean Time Metrics
Total Support Cost Model
War Fighting Values
D1
E1
R2
MERIT Data Repository (MDR)
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End
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DLMP Relations
------- Email / Phoncon / Manual File
Transfer ____ Automated / Integrated interface

M E R I T D A T A R E P O S I T O R Y
Future DLMP Decision Support Capability
Critical TAMCN Model
Hangar Queen Model
CORE
Metrics
TSC
War Fighting Values
50/50 Report
TASSET SCOPE
DERO
Identify DM Candidates
Maint Tracker
MSST
HQMC (PR IL) SYSCOM LOGCOM MARFOR
Planning
Scheduling
Execution
DLMP Transactional Systems
SCS
MCDSS
MWS
MRP II
MS Excel
MS Access
MS Excel
MS Excel
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Forecasting the DM Requirement Equipment
Attrition

• Assumptions
• LMIS IDF contains accurate replacement costs
• WIR from WOLPH contains accurate NSN and quantity
  data
• Combat damaged equipment repair costs will be 65
  of replacement cost
• Non-combat equipment repair costs will be 35 of
  replacement cost
• PMs recovery plan follows the decision tree
  logic on following slide

WIR Data (WOLPH)
Total Cost Through End of FYXX
MERIT (TLCM AT)
Actual Losses
SASSY (Voucher File)
Estimate of Future Losses (Calculated)
SCS Data (Stock Control System)
PMs Recovery Plan (CAPS)
Replacement Cost Data (LMIS/TFSMS)
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Repair/Replace Decision Tree
WIR
Is New Acquisition Planned to Replace current
Item?
Is Item Repairable? (Repair Cost lt 65 of Replace
Cost)
Is a SLEP/MOD/PIP currently planned?
Yes
New Acquisition Cost
Yes
Yes
No
No
SLEP/MOD/PIP Cost
No
Is Hot Production Line Available?
Hot Production Line Cost
Who makes this assesment and when?
Depot Maint Cost
Yes
Estimated Repair Cost
Complete Loss Cost
No
No
If urgent requirement exists, should an attempt
be made to repair this item or procure a similar
item?
Total Repair/Replace Cost (New
Acquisition Qty x Cost) (Hot Production
Line Qty x Cost) (SLEP Qty x Cost)
(DM Qty x Cost) (Estimated Repair Qty x
Cost) (Similar Item Procure Qty x Cost)
(Complete Loss Qty x Cost)
Repair
Which is the optimal choice
Similar Item Procurement Cost
Yes
Procure
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DM Segments (Transactional)
Schedule (MCDSS / MSST / MRP II)
Plan (MCDSS / MSST / SCS)
Execute (MSST / DIFMS)
DMISSA? CLS? Repair Return?
MARFORS Equipment Usage (MIMMS / SASSY / WOLPH /
SCS)
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DM Segments (Informational)
Schedule (MERIT / TLCM AT)
Plan (MERIT / TLCM AT)
Execute (Maint Tracker)
Supporting Commanders, Logisticians, Planners
in making TLCM Decisions (MERIT / TCLMAT / TSC)
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LCMI
Sustainment
MERIT
TLCMAT
SCOPE
MSST
Serialized Tracking
dB / Feeds
Software Hardware
TSC
RAM ACPROD
MISC
PEI Attrition Forecast Model
Data Quality
DLM RSA
OutYear Development
Software Licenses
HIT
DLM Tracking Tool
Hardware
MPF Drill Down
SIPR Support
BCS3
Procure Gap Cost Model (Graphical)
Help / Manual
Non Rpt Enterprise View
Data Maps
Readiness Staircase Model
Org TAMCN Summar
Risk Mgt
Ops Scheduler
Graphical Display of CORE
Discoverer
PEI Rotation Sched Model
Depot Opt Cap Plan Tool
Depot 50/50 Report
Redist Model
Fault Isolation Model
Quad Model
Critical TAMCN WFV Model
DERO
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Evaluating the Performance of theSustainment
Value ChainCross-Functional Metrics
OSDs Goal Model This
DRMO
Ship
RFI
BER
Planned Sustainment Cycle Time Vs. Actual
Sustainment Cycle Time
Trouble- shoot
Depot Repair
Induct at Depot
Test
Ship
Package/Preserve
Wholesale Supply
Purchase
Ship
Ship
End-to-End Equipment Sustainment Value
Chain (Asset Availability)
Ship
Wholesale Supply
Package/Preserve
Trouble- shoot
Retail Supply
Ship
Field Repair, I-level
War Reserve
Remove
Field Repair O-level
Test
Trouble- shoot
Retail Supply
Use/Break
Test
Install
Planned Materiel Availably Vs. Actual Materiel
Availability