Overview of the New York City Economy: Recent and Long Term Trends

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Overview of the New York City Economy Recent and
Long Term Trends
Risk Management AssociationNew York
Chapter April 11, 2007 Presented by Jason Bram,
Regional Economist Federal Reserve Bank of NY
Any comments or statements in this presentation
represent the views of the author only and not
necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York or the Federal Reserve System.
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Overview

• How is our region doing in terms of
• Overall Activity
• Job Growth
• Unemployment
• Income
• Housing
• Commercial Real Estate
• Industry Mix

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INDEX OF COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Index July 1992100
Index July 1992100
Trough in New York
State August 2003 New York City June
2003 New Jersey March 2003
Feb.
NYC
NJ
NY
Source Federal Reserve Bank of New York (based
on data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau
of Economic Analysis, NY State Department of
Labor, and NJ Department of Labor.)
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PHILADELPHIA FED COINCIDENT INDEXES
Source Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
(http//www.phil.frb.org/econ/stateindexes)
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JOB GROWTH BY STATE (Feb. 2006-Feb.
2007)Private-Sector Payroll Employment
Change
Source US Bureau of Labor Statistics Economy.com
6
LONG-RUN JOB GROWTH BY STATE (1981-2006)Private-S
ector Payroll Employment
Annualized Change
Source US Bureau of Labor Statistics Economy.com
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RECENT JOB GROWTH BY STATE RELATIVE TO TREND
Private-Sector Payroll Employment
Change
Source US Bureau of Labor Statistics Economy.com
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Private-Sector Job Growth US Selected Local
Areas From Dec 2005-Feb 2006 to Dec 2006-Feb
2007
United States Upstate NY Buffalo Rochester Syrac
use Albany NY Metro Division New York
City Northern Suburbs Fairfield, CT Northern
New Jersey Long Island
Percentage Change in
Private Sector Employment Includes the four
areas listed, as well as Binghamton, Elmira,
Glens Falls,Utica-Rome, and Ithaca..
Includes Bergen NJ, Hudson NJ, Passaic NJ, NY
City, New York NY, Putnam NY, Rockland NY, and
Westchester counties. Includes Dutchess,
Orange, Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester
counties. Includes Bergen-Hudson-Passaic
counties, Newark-Union, NJ-PA and Edison NJ Metro
Divisions.
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics and
Economy.com.
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PRIVATE-SECTOR JOB GROWTH U.S. AND REGION12
Month Percent Change in Private-Sector Employment
Percent
Percent
NYC
US
NYNJ
US Mar 1.5 NY NJ Feb 1.1
New York City Feb 2.0
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics and
Economy.com.
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RECENT TRENDS IN U.S. AND REGIONAL
EMPLOYMENTSeasonally Adjusted
1991100
1991100
Jobs (in Thous.) US Feb 137,622 New
York State Feb 8,671 New York City
Feb 3,699 New Jersey Feb
4,085
US
NJ
NY
NYC
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics Moodys
Economy.com.
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LONG-TERM TRENDS IN NYC EMPLOYMENT
1976100
Payroll Employment
Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
12
LONG-TERM TRENDS IN NYC EMPLOYMENT
1976100
BEA
Payroll Employment
Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
13
LONG-TERM TRENDS IN NYC EMPLOYMENT
1976100
Household Employment
BEA
Payroll Employment
Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of
Economic Analysis.
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATESSeasonally Adjusted
Percent
Percent
US Mar 4.4 New York Feb
4.4 New York City Feb 4.8
New Jersey Feb 4.1
NYC
NY
US
NJ
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics and
Economy.com.
Data seasonally adjusted by Economy.com.
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Total Wage Salary EarningsUS, NYC, NYC Metro
Area
Index, 1995100
NYC Metro (21 counties)
NYC5 boro
US
Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Economy.com. Note Earnings
are nominal.
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THE NEW YORK CITY PREMIUMNYC Average Wage
Salary Earnings per Worker as a of US Average

Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Economy.com, FRBNY
Calculations.
17
HOUSE PRICE APPRECIATION BY STATE
(2005Q4-2006Q4) Based on OFHEO Repeat-Sales Index
Source OFHEO
18
HOME PRICES US NYC Metro AreaPercent Change
from a Year Earlier
Percent
Percent
NYC Metro
US
Sources OFHEO price index based on repeat sales.
19
HOME PRICES US NYC Metro AreaPercent Change
from a Year Earlier
Percent
Percent
NYC Metro
US (exc. refis)
US
Sources OFHEO price index based on repeat sales.
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SINGLE MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS NEW
JERSEY3-Month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted
of Units
of Units
Single-Family
Feb
Multi-Family
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics Moodys
Economy.com
Data seasonally adjusted by FRBNY
staff.
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SINGLE MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS NEW
YORK3-Month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted
of Units
of Units
Multi-Family
Feb
Single-Family
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics Moodys
Economy.com
Data seasonally adjusted by FRBNY
staff.
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OFFICE VACANCY RATESOverall Vacancy Rates
Percent
Percent
NJ
NYC Downtown
US
NYC Midtown
Data are for Q4 2006
Sources Cushman Wakefield (local areas) CB
Commercial (U.S.) Moodys Economy.com.
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OFFICE VACANCY RATESOverall Vacancy Rates
Percent
Percent
Westchester
Fairfield
US
LI
Data are for Q4 2006
Sources Cushman Wakefield (local areas) CB
Commercial (U.S.) Moodys Economy.com.
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Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and New
York State Department of Labor.