U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook November 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

1
U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookNovember
2003Prepared byEconomic ServicesNational
Cotton Council
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Macroeconomic Environment
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Change in U.S. Real GDP
4
Change in U.S. Real Personal Consumption
Expenditures
5
Civilian Unemployment Rate
6
Dow Jones Industrials
7
U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price
DOE 2003 Outlook
8
U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO)
9
Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries
10
Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)
11
Textile Exchange Rate Index (Countries,
excluding China, Exporting Cotton Textiles to US)
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U.S. Net Farm Income
USDA November 2003
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U.S. Cotton Supply
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December Cotton Futures
Cents per Pound
15
U.S. Cotton Area
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2003 U.S. Cotton Crop Yield Estimates
Lb. per Harvested Acre
2002 2003 5-Yr. Actual Estimated Average
Southeast 486 753 603 Mid-South 800 879
700 Southwest 538 467 488 West 1,400
1,303 1,230 ALL UPLAND 651 715 638
ALL ELS 1,342 1,260 1,153 ALL COTTON 665
722 648
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U.S. Yield Per Harvested Acre
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US Upland Cotton Abandonment
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U.S. Cotton Supply
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U.S. Cotton Demand
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U.S. Net Domestic Consumption Cotton
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U.S. Net Domestic Consumption Cotton
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Net Imports of Cotton Textiles
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U.S. Imports of Cotton Products
15.7 million bales
17.4 million bales
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U.S. Imports from China
Million Bales
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U.S. Cotton Product Imports from China(No Longer
Subject to Quotas as of Jan. 1, 2002)
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January 1, 2005

• We are slightly over 1 year away from elimination
  of textile quotas.
• At that time, tariffs will be the only protection
  and U.S. rates are much lower than other
  countries
• US at 9
• Brazil at 40-50
• China at 20-36

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U.S. Cotton Mill Use
Million Bales
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The World Market U.S. Cotton Exports
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World Cotton Production
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World Cotton Production
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Change in 03 Cotton Production Projected
Increase of 4.2 mil bales relative to 2002
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World Cotton Mill Use
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World Cotton Mill Use
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Change in 03 Mill UseProjected decrease of
530,000 bales relative to 2002
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U.S. Cotton Exports
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Top Customers for U.S. Raw Cotton

• 2002
• County (000 Bales)
• Mexico 2,211
• China 1,895
• Turkey 1,523
• Indonesia 845
• Thailand 576
• Taiwan 532

• 2003
• Country (000 Bales)
• China 2,669
• Mexico 1,329
• Indonesia 476
• Turkey 423
• Canada 324
• Korean Rep. 298

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U.S. Cotton Exports
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World Cotton Ending Stocks
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U.S. Supply and Demand
Million Bales Beginning Stocks 7.45 5.38 Producti
on 17.21 18.22 Imports 0.07 0.05 Total
Supply 24.72 23.65 Mill Use 7.27 6.20 Exports 11.9
0 13.20 Total Offtake 19.17 19.40 Ending
Stocks 5.38 4.25 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 28.1 21.9
2002/03
2003/04
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World Supply and Demand
Million Bales Beginning Stocks 46.95 36.76 Produc
tion 87.99 92.14 Mill Use 98.22 97.69 Ending
Stocks 36.76 31.66 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.4
32.4
2003/04
2002/03
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Producers
Cooperatives