Maine Greenhouse Gas Proposed Baseline Methodologies

1
Maine Greenhouse Gas Proposed Baseline
Methodologies

• Tom Peterson, CCAP

2
Maine Baseline

• State baseline is sum of the following sectors
• Electricity generation
• Industrial
• includes non-CO2 for process gases, natural gas
  oil systems, and stationary combustion
• Commercial
• Residential
• Transportation Transportation
• includes non-CO2 mobile source combustion
• Agriculture/Forestry
• Waste Management

3
Maine Historical Baseline

• The NESCAUM Inventory will provide information
  for the 1990-2000 period
• CCAP will verify the NESCAUM inventory using
• EIA State Energy Report Data by sector, by
  fuel-type (1990-2000)
• EPAs State Inventory assumptions
• Adjustment to the historical baseline will be
  made on an as-needed basis with input from
  working groups Stakeholders

4
Maine Future Baseline

• Future baseline methodology
• CCAP will project year 2000 inventory levels out
  to 2020 based on the best sector specific sources
  with input from Stakeholders

5
General Baseline Issues

• Historical CO2 estimates vary by source
• EIA State Data Reports, EIAs AEO 2003 report,
  EPA E-Grid, and the Electric Power Annual do not
  agree on emissions levels
• Electric utilities, industrial sectors show
  greatest variance.
• Percentage growth estimates may be less accurate
  than quantity growth estimates
• depends on accuracy of base and differences
  between NE and Maine growth patterns
• Differences in baseline levels are magnified
  through time

6
Electric Utility Sector

• Background Issues
• EIA data misclassifies electricity sector energy
  use data (e.g coal) due to deregulation
• Non-utility generators are reported under
  industry
• Large differences in emission estimates obtained
  by using different data sources (EIA, E-grid,
  Electric Power Annual etc)
• Method
• Present alternative projections using various
  sources to Stakeholders for reaction and input

7
Renewables Assumptions
Energy Type Potential Cost/Performance
Wind DOE/NREL w/ adjusted regional cost curves Merged EIA DOE Wind
Landfill Gas EPA LMOP ICF/EIA
Biomass Northeast Regional Biomass Program ICF/EIA
Solar ICF/EIA ICF/EIA
Fuel Cells CCEF CCEF
Small Hydro EIA? ICF check EIA? ICF check
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Electricity Baseline
9
Natural Gas Prices
EEA
10
CT Electricity Baselines
11
Transportation Sector

• Background Issues
• Data discrepancy between historic fuel use VMT
• Method
• Initially use historical gasoline and diesel
  growth rates
• Compare historical growth to AEO projections and
  studies done for Maine (i.e. DOT VMT projections)
  
• Grow other fuels at AEO 2003 rates
• Projection of NESCAUMs mobile source combustion
  non-CO2 emissions based on fuel use

12
Industrial Sector

• Background Issues
• Inclusion of fuel use for power generation in
  1997-2000 EIA state data may distort basis for
  projection
• May not account for recent state actions
• Method
• Grow NESCAUM fossil fuel combustion values based
  upon AEO2003 projections for New England
• Extrapolation of NESCAUMs oil natural gas
  systems emissions non-CO2 stationary combustion
  base on fuel use
• Process gases based on EPA national forecasts
  adjusted for historical state percentage

13
Commercial Sector

• Background Issues
• Regional growth may not accurately depict Maines
  growth
• May not account for recent state actions
• Method
• Grow EIA state data based upon AEO 2003 regional
  projection

14
Residential Sector

• Background Issues
• Regional growth may not accurately depict Maines
  growth
• May not account for recent state actions
• Method
• Grow EIA state data based upon AEO 2003 regional
  projection

15
Agriculture, Forestry Waste

• Background Issues
• Trends may not continue into future
• May not account for recent state actions
• Method
• Agriculture, forestry, and waste sectors use
  estimates projected using NESCAUMs historical
  1990-2000 trend

16
Existing ME Actions

• Existing actions may impact Maines baseline
• Investigate what actions are included in the
  states current GHG inventory
• Power sector
• Renewable energy funds?
• Renewable portfolio standard (RPS)?
• Residential and commercial sectors
• Building code standards?
• Appliance efficiency standards?

17
Potential Existing ME Actions

• Transportation sector
• Low-GHG vehicle standards?
• Efficient fleet requirements?
• Improved VMT data collection
• Complementary transportation land use modeling
• Agriculture and forestry sectors
• Reduction programs/BMPs?
• Offset requirements?

18
Baseline Data Issues

• Imports v. exports
• Fuel sales v. consumption
• Common metrics
• Data limits
• Monitoring and modeling methods?
• Level of detail on activities and regions?
• Non CO2 gases?
• CH4, N2O, SFCs, HFCs, PFCs, Black Carbon?
• Ancillary costs and benefits?