The Millennial Generation The Next Greatest Generation?

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The Millennial GenerationThe Next Greatest
Generation?

• American Association of School Administrators
• 801 N. Quincy St., Suite 700
• Arlington, VA 22203
• Standing Up For Public Education
• Standing Up For Kids

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Most major negative indicators are falling
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Percentage of students who reported smoking
cigarettes daily in the previous 30 days by
school grade (1980-2003)

                                                                           
SOURCE National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Monitoring the Future Survey.
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Percentage of students who reported having five or more alcoholic beverages in a row in the last 2 weeks by grade, 1980-2003
                                                                           
SOURCE National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Monitoring the Future Survey.
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Percentage of students who reported using illicit
drugs in the previous 30 days by grade
(1980-2003)

                                                                           
NOTE Illicit drugs include marijuana, cocaine (including crack), heroin, hallucinogens (including LSD, PCP, and ecstasy MDMA), amphetamines (including methamphetamine), and nonmedical use of psychotherapeutics. SOURCE National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Monitoring the Future Survey.
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Rate of serious violent crime victimization of youth ages 12 to 17 by gender (1980-2000)
                                                                           
NOTE Serious violent crimes include aggravated assault, rape, robbery (stealing by force or threat of violence), and homicide. Because of changes made in the victimization survey, data prior to 1992 are adjusted to make them comparable with data collected under the redesigned methodology. Numbers for 2000 are preliminary and do not contain final homicide estimates. SOURCE U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Supplementary Homicide Reports.
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Serious violent crime offending rate by youth ages 12 to 17, 1980-2000
                                                                           
SOURCE U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Supplementary Homicide Reports.
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Serious violent crime victimization and
perpetration rates for youth ages 12 to 17
SOURCE U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of
Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization
Survey. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform
Crime Reporting Program, Supplementary Homicide
Reports. Above figure at ChildStats.gov
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In the 10 years between 1992 and 2001, the
decline in the number of violent crime arrests
was greater for juveniles than adults
Juvenile
Adult
Violent Crime Index   21 9
   Murder 62 29
   Forcible rape 24 29
   Robbery 32 23
   Aggravated assault 14   3
Data source Crime in the United States 2001,
table 32.
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The juvenile Violent Crime Index arrest rate in
2001 was at its lowest level since 198344 below
the peak year of 1994

•                                                
                                                    
              
• All the growth in the juvenile violent crime
  arrest rate that began in the latter part of the
  1980s was erased by 2001.

Data source Analysis of arrest data from the FBI
and population data from the U.S. Bureau of the
Census.
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After years of relative stability, the juvenile
arrest rate for Property Crime Index offenses
began a decline in the mid-1990s that continued
through 2001
Data source Analysis of arrest data from the FBI
and population data from the U.S. Bureau of the
Census.
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Trends in juvenile arrest rates for weapons law
violations and for murder were similar between
1980 and 2001
Data source Analysis of arrest data from the FBI
and population data from the U.S. Bureau of the
Census.
13
The juvenile arrest rate for drug abuse
violations soared in the mid-1990s
Data source Analysis of arrest data from the FBI
and population data from the U.S. Bureau of the
Census.
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Adolescent mortality Death rates among
adolescents ages 15 to 19 by cause of death
SOURCE Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, National Immunization Program and
National Center for Health Statistics, National
Immunization Survey. Above figure at
ChildStats.gov
15
Above found at School Violence Resource Center
website, Fact SheetWhat are the Odds?
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Source The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 2004.
17
Birth rates by mother's age, race, and Hispanic
origin 1980-2002
SOURCE Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, National Immunization Program and
National Center for Health Statistics, National
Immunization Survey. Above figure at
ChildStats.gov
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Source The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 2004.
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Source The Alan Guttmacher Institute, 2004.
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Percentage of youth ages 16 to 19 who are neither
enrolled in school nor working by gender, race,
and Hispanic origin
SOURCE U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current
Population Survey. Above figure at ChildStats.gov
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Number of homicides and suicides of youth ages
5-19 at school
1 Homicides and suicides of youth ages 519 at
school from July 1,1992 to June 30,2002.2 Data
are preliminary and subject to change.SOURCE
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),
19922002 School-Associated Violent Deaths
Surveillance System, previously unpublished
tabulation (August 2003). Above found in National
Center for Education Statistics Indicators of
School Crime and Safety, 2003.
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Rate of Non-fatal crimes against students ages
12-18 per 1000 students, by location
SOURCE U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of
Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization
Survey (NCVS), 19922001. Above found in National
Center for Education Statistics Indicators of
School Crime and Safety, 2003.
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Percentage of students in grades 9-12 who
reported carrying a weapon at least 1 day during
the previous 30 days, by sex
SOURCE Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease
Prevention and Health Promotion, Youth Risk
Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS), Youth Risk
Behavior Survey (YRBS), selected years
19932001. Above found in National Center for
Education Statistics Indicators of School Crime
and Safety, 2003.
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At the same time, positive indicators are rising
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Year AP Schools AP Candidates AP Exams Taken Colleges Receiving AP Grades
1955-56 104 1,229 2,199 130
1960-61 1,126 13,283 17,603 617
1965-66 2,518 38,178 50,104 1,076
1970-71 3,342 57,850 74,409 1,382
1975-76 3,937 75,651 98,898 1,580
1980-81 5,253 133,702 178,159 1,955
1985-86 7,201 231,378 319,224 2,125
1990-91 9,786 359,120 535,186 2,587
1995-96 11,712 537,428 843,423 2,895
1996-97 12,022 581,554 921,601 2,872
1997-98 12,486 635,168 1,016,657 2,964
1998-99 12,886 704,298 1,149,515 3,007
1999-2000 13,253 768,586 1,272,317 3,070
2000-01 13,680 844,741 1,414,387 3,199
2001-02 14,157 937,951 1,585,516 3,388
  cumulative (1955-02) 10,541,457 16,118,698  
Source College Board
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AP Candidates and Exams Taken
Source College Board
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Number of Schools offering AP Courses
Source College Board
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Average Number of Carnegie Units Earned by
Public High School Graduates from 1982-2000
Source National Center for Education Statistics,
November 2002
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Average Number of Carnegie Units Earned by
Public High School Graduates from 1982-2000
Source National Center for Education Statistics,
November 2002
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Percentage of high school graduates who completed
high-level coursework in mathematics, science,
English, and foreign language
SOURCE U.S. Department of Education, National
Center for Education Statistics, High School and
Beyond Survey, National Education Longitudinal
Study of 1988, and National Assessment of
Educational Progress Transcript Study. Above
figure at ChildStats.gov
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• Adults have a mistaken impression of young
  people.
• Adults think kids are more dangerous and commit
  more crimes
• Adults think schools are more dangerous
• But adults do acknowledge that kids work harder
  in school than they did, but not by a wide margin
  
• Some good things about todays kids must be
  sinking in with adults because they do see them
  as better citizens than they were

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I have more concern that teens today will engage
in aggressive behavior than my parents did when I
was a teenager
60
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Total Agree 84
9
5
Total Disagree 14
11
2
33
Todays young people commit fewer crimes and are
less likely to use drugs than previous generations
11
16
Total Agree 27
25
46
11
Total Disagree 71
2
34
Do you think that ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS are
(much/somewhat) more or less dangerous than when
you were a child?
Neither 12
Much less 6
Much more 26
Somewhat less 15
Somewhat more 40
Totals More Dangerous 66 Less Dangerous 21
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Do you think that MIDDLE SCHOOLS are
(much/somewhat) more or less dangerous than when
you were a child?
Much less 3
Neither 6
Somewhat less 9
Much more 43
Somewhat more 37
Totals More Dangerous 80 Less Dangerous 12
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Do you think that HIGH SCHOOLS are
(much/somewhat) more or less dangerous than when
you were a child?
Much less 2
Neither 4
Somewhat less 6
Somewhat more 31
Much more 56
Totals More Dangerous 87 Less Dangerous 8
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Do you think that (insert item) schools are
(more/somewhat) more or less dangerous than when
you were a child?
Total More Elementary 66 Middle
80 High 87 Total Less Elementary
21 Middle 12 High 8
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Children today work harder in school-they take
more classes and harder classes-than previous
generations
29
29
Total Agree 58
21
18
Total Disagree 40
11
3
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Children today are more likely to be good citizens
14
41
Total Agree 54
28
15
Total Disagree 43
11
2
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Persons in selected age groups as a percentage of
the total U.S. population
SOURCE U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
and Projections Above figure at ChildStats.gov