The Global Energy Landscape

1
The Global Energy Landscape

• The Problem of Energy
• Diminishing supply?
• Resources in unfriendly locations?
• Environmental damage?
• The Solution
• Adequate domestic supply
• Environmentally benign
• Conveniently transported
• Conveniently used

2
World Energy Consumption
260,000,000,000 60W bulbs continuously
2005 totals 490 Q-Btu, 515 EJ, 16TW 2030
projections 720 Q-Btu, 760 EJ, 24TW
86 fossil
81
Source US Energy Information Administration
3
World Energy Consumption
How good is the EIA at making projections??
(annual)
Source US Energy Information Agency
Coal, actual
4
Fossil Fuel Supplies
Source US Energy Information Administration
Rsv Reserves (90) Rsc Resources (50)
Source Reserves, yrs Resources, yrs Total, yrs
Oil 13 - 20 10 35 23 - 55
Gas 11 - 25 7 40 18 - 65
Coal 32 270 300
56-77
287-345
5
Reserves History for American Coal
Courtesy David Rutledge
Coal Commission
(based on surveys by Marius Campbell
of the USGS)
4,045 years
Paul Averitt (USGS)
2,136 years
1,433 years
Bureau of Mines/EIA (based on Paul
Averitts surveys)
270 years
236 years
368 years
Hubbert Peak type of analysis suggests 90
depletion by 2076
6
US Energy Imports/Exports 1949-2004
Source US Energy Information Administration
Imports
Exports
35
6
Total
30
5
25
4
Total
20
Quad BTU
Coal
3
Quad BTU
15
2
10
Petroleum
1
Petroleum
5
0
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000

• 65 of known petroleum reserves in Middle East
• 3 of reserves in USA, but 25 of world
  consumption

Net
35
30
25
20
Quad BTU
15
10
5
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
7
Environmental Outlook
Global CO2 levels
2009 385 ppm Projections 500-700 ppm by 2020

• Anthropogenic
• Fossil fuel (75)
• Land use (25)

Industrial Revolution
Source Oak Ridge National Laboratory
8
Environmental Outlook
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001
http//www.ipcc.ch N. Oreskes, Science 306,
1686, 2004 D. A. Stainforth et al, Nature 433,
403, 2005
9
Future Scenarios
Courtesy John Seinfeld
Most optimitistic scenario
10
Future Scenarios
Courtesy John Seinfeld
Highly optimitistic scenario stabilize at 380 ppm
(aerosols)
11
Energy Outlook

• Supply
• Uncertainty in assessing
• High geopolitical risk
• Rising costs

• Environmental Impact
• Target, by 2050
• Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppm
• Requires
• 20 TW carbon-free power
• One 1-GW power plant daily from now until then

• Urgency
• Transport of CO2 or heat into deep oceans
• 400-1000 years CO2 build-up is cummulative
• Must make dramatic changes within next few years

12
The Energy Solution
Courtesy Nate Lewis

• Solar
• 1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface
• 600 TW practical

The need 20 TW by 2050
Wind 2-4 TW extractable
Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not
used for food
Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW
economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity
12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable
Nuclear Waste disposal 60 yr uranium supply
Fossil with sequestration 1 / yr leakage -gt lost
in 100 yrs
13
A Sustainable Energy Cycle
C-free Source
H2O, CO2
Solar power plant
H2
Capture
e-
???
Hydrides? Liquid H2?
Batteries
Storage
Hydrocarbon
Delivery
e-
Utilization
H2O
CO2
Fuel cell
14
A Sustainable Energy Cycle
C-free Source
H2O, CO2
Solar power plant
H2
Capture
e-
???
Hydrides? Liquid H2?
Batteries
Storage
Hydrocarbon
Delivery
e-
Utilization
H2O
CO2
Fuel cell