DAC PROJECT Capacity Building in Balcan Countries for the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases

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DAC PROJECTCapacity Building in Balcan
Countriesfor the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases
Tirana 08.04.2002

• Setting priorities for GHG emissions reduction

George Mavrotas NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF
ATHENS
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Structure of the presentation

• Analysis of the current situation Recognize
  priorities
• Indicative measures and policies
• Evaluation of the measures
• Priorities according to local experts
• Concluding remarks

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Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU
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Focus Energy sector
CO2 emissions from the energy sector
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Power generation characteristics

• Installed capacity
• 1446 MW hydro power
• 35 MW thermal power
• Production
• 99 from hydro power (normal year 4300 GWh)
• Recognized problems
• High TD losses (25)
• Strong dependence on hydrological conditions

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Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation

• The future
• Further exploitation of hydro potential (now only
  35)
• It is unavoidable to cover the increased
  electricity demand by thermal power plants (TPP)
  in order to enhance the security of supply
  (diversification of power supply mix)
• Forecasted capacity of TPP till 2020 850 MW
• Share of TPP production 40 in 2020
• High Priority
• Reduce TD losses
• Clean and efficient technologies for TPP units
• Natural gas gt Oil gt Coal

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Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors

• The aim should be 3-fold
• To increase energy efficiency through
  minimisation of energy losses
• To upgrade existing infrastructure with new
  appliances/equipment
• To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables

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Measures and Policies for the Residential
Tertiary Sector

• Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings
  (insulation double glazing)
• Updating building specifications for new
  buildings
• Buildings shading
• Use of low energy lamps
• Use of efficient domestic appliances
• Solar water heating systems
• Penetration of natural gas
• District heating
• CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc)

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Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector

• Improved maintenance of energy equipment
• Energy conservation (reduction of losses)
• Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas
• Cogeneration with natural gas
• Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues)

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Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector

• Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks and
  buses
• Improvement of road network
• Improvement in traffic lighting
• Promotion of public transport
• Increased natural gas in public transport

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Evaluation of measures

• Cost estimation
• Cost per ton of CO2 saved (specific cost)
• Contribution to CO2 emissions abatement
• Marginal abatement cost curve
• Additional criteria
• Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures,
  administrative-legislative barriers)
• Environmental synergies
• Impact on employment and regional development

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Cost per ton of CO2 saved

• Comparison with the relative baseline scenario
  option
• Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and
  the reference time period (e.g. 1 year)
• Cost and CO2 emissions estimation for the
  baseline scenario option (without the measure)
• Cost and CO2 emissions estimation with the
  measure implementation

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CO2 abatement estimation

• Specify the target year
• Assume a penetration rate of the measure at
  target year
• Estimate the CO2 abatement at target year
• CO2ab(CO2b-CO2m)ref_unit ? unitstarg_year ?
  penetration_rate

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Evaluation of the measures The case of Albania

• Quantification of 26 measures in the energy
  sector
• Residential sector 9
• Services 3
• Industry 5
• Transport 1
• Agricultural 1
• Energy Transformation 7

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Ranking according to the specific cost of measures
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Ranking according to the CO2 abatement in 2020
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Marginal abatement cost curve for 2020
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Comments

• Almost all the studied measures are beneficial
  even from a financial point of view
• Mostly energy conservation measures and some
  fuel-switch
• In 2020 the potential of CO2 emissions abatement
  is about 7 Mt. It can be attained with measures
  that are also economical acceptable.

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Example Economy lamps

• Baseline scenario Incandescent lamps
• Base of calculations 1 typical household (100
  m2)
• Reference time period 1 year

Incandescent lamps Economy lamps
Lighting power 350 W 63 W
Annual consumption (2.5h/day) 315 kWh 57 kWh
Price of 1 lamp (100W?18W) 1.1 18.9
Lifetime 1 year 8 years
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Example Economy lamps (2)

• Annualized cost per lamp
• Incandescent 1.1
• Economy lamp CRF(5, 8 years)?18.9 0.155 ?18.9
  2.93
• Annualized cost per household
• Incandescent 5 lamps/household ? 1.1 /lamp
  5.5
• Economy lamps 5 lamps/household ? 2.93 /lamp
  14.7
• Annual electricity cost ( 0.098 /kWh)
• Incandescent 0.098 /kWh ? 315 kWh 30.9
• Economy lamps 0.098 /kWh ? 57 kWh 5.6

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Example Economy lamps (3)

• Total annual cost per household
• Incandescent 5.5 30.9 36.4
• Economy lamps 14.7 5.6 20.3
• Power generation data
• Transmission losses 15
• Average emission factor (2020) 0.263 kg CO2/kWh
• Power generation CO2 emissions per household
• Incandescent 0.263 ? 315/(1- 0.15) 97 kg CO2
• Economy lamps 0.263 ? 57/(1- 0.15) 18 kg CO2

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Example Economy lamps (4)

• Abatement cost
• (20.3 36.4) / (97 kgCO2 18 kgCO2) -204 /
  tCO2
• Number of households in 2020 1,440,000
• Penetration of the measure until 2020 50
• CO2 abatement in 2020
• 1,440,000 ? (97 kgCO2 18 kgCO2) ? 0.5 56.9 kt
  CO2

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Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001)
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Questionnaire results (2)
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Questionnaire results (3)
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Questionnaire results (4)
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Concluding remarks

• Priorities
• Further exploitation of natural gas
• Secure electricity supply with TPP using clean
  fuels
• Energy conservation
• Exploitation of renewable energy sources
• Criteria for the evaluation of measures
• Cost per ton of CO2 saved
• CO2 abatement for target year
• Applicability, synergies, employment
• Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project
  quantification of the measures