What%20the%20Weather%20Will%20Bring%20or%20Agricultural%20Weather%20in%20Wisconsin

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What the Weather Will Bringor Agricultural
Weather in Wisconsin

• Wisconsin Agri-Service Association 9th Annual
  Trade Show 30 January 2003
• Lake Delton, WI
• Prof. John A. Young
• E. J. Hopkins
• Dept. of Atmospheric Oceanic Sciences
• University of Wisconsin-Madison

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Our Road Map

• Introduction
• What we have Current Maps
• What we think Analysis Forecasts
• Who and Where we are

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Current Drought Conditions from National Drought
Mitigation Center
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U.S. Drought Monitor Mapfrom National Drought
Mitigation Center

• Considers
• Agricultural, Hydrological Drought
• Fire Danger
• Depends Upon
• Palmer Drought Index (PDSI)
• CPC Soil Moisture Model
• USGS Weekly Streamflow
• Percent of Normal Precipitation
• Standardized Precipitation Index
• Satellite Vegetation Health Index

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Drought Conditions Since Early November 2002
from National Drought Mitigation Center
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December Precipitation From Climate Prediction
Center
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Current Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
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Current Crop Moisture Index
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Precipitation Needed to Bring PDSI to -0.5
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Recent Soil Moisture from CPC
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Recent Soil Moisture from CPC
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Current 30 Day Precipitation DepartureFrom
Midwestern Regional Climate Center
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Current Soil Moisture DepartureFrom Midwestern
Regional Climate Center
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Recent Streamflow (from USGS)
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Standardized Precipitation Index for Nov-Dec 2002
(from NCDC)
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History of Statewide PDSI From National Climate
Data Center
Wet
Wet
Wet
Wet
Drought
Drought
Drought
Drought
Drought
Drought
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History of Wisconsin Statewide Precipitation
From Moran Hopkins, 2002
Wet
Wet
Wet
Dry
Dry
Dry
Dry
Dry
Dry
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Monitoring Current Sea Surface Temperatures
From Climate Prediction Center
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Jet Stream during Dec. 2002
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El Niño Winter Temperature Impact
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El Niño Winter Temperature Impact
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From National Climate Data Center (NCDC) based
on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)
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El Niño Spring Precipitation Impact
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El Niño Spring Precipitation Impact
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Dec. 2002 Precipitation RanksFrom National
Climate Data Center (NCDC)based on 108 yrs.
(1895-2002)
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From National Climate Data Center (NCDC) based
on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)
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Saturdays Forecast of PDSIfrom Climate
Prediction Center
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CPC Soil Moisture Forecastat end of Next Week
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CPC Soil Moisture Forecastat end of Next 2 Weeks
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LATE WINTER FORECASTFrom NOAA Climate Prediction
Center
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THREE MONTH DROUGHT FORECASTFrom NOAA Climate
Prediction Center
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                           THE  WISCONSIN
STATE   CLIMATOLOGY  OFFICE your resource for
weather and climate information
WHO WE ARE

• John A. Young Director
• Lyle Anderson Data Manager
• Traci Westphal Asst. Climatologist
• Ed Hopkins Consultant UW-Madison Partner
  Atmospheric Oceanic Sciences

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WHERE WE ARE
1225 W. Dayton St., Madison
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Climatological Divisions for Wisconsin (NCDC)
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Contact

• John A. YoungDept. of Atmospheric Oceanic
  SciencesUW-Madison1225 W. Dayton608/262-2828ja
  young_at_facstaff.wisc.edu
• Edward J. Hopkins hopkins_at_meteor.wisc.edu

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Useful Links

• State Climatology Office http//www.aos.wisc.edu
  /sco/
• Midwestern Regional Climate Center http//mrcc.sw
  s.uiuc.edu/
• Climate Prediction Center (NWS) http//www.cpc.nc
  ep.noaa.gov/
• National Climate Data Center (NCDC) http//www.nc
  dc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• Drought Monitor http//www.drought.unl.edu/dm/mon
  itor.html
• Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (USDA
  NOAA) http//www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/
• NOAA Drought Information Center http//www.drough
  t.noaa.gov/