Water Resources Planning and Forecasting From Modeling to Informed Decisionmaking

1
Water Resources Planning and Forecasting From
Modeling to Informed Decision-making

• David R. Purkey, Ph.D.
• Group Leader
• U.S. Water Group

2
Why a Swedish Organization at a meeting of Danish
Organizations?
3
SEI Structure

• Launched in the 1970 as a collaboration between
  Swedish and British researchers seeking solutions
  to the acid rain problem in Sweden linked to coal
  fire power plants in Britain
• Affiliated with Stockholm University
• Approximately 120 researchers working in six
  programmes across six centres.
• Receives roughly 20 of its budget in core
  funding from the Swedish government.
• The rest must be raised through traditional
  channels such as responding to RFPs, securing
  contracts with partners, and soliciting grants
  from foundations.
• Cross centre and cross programme collaboration is
  encouraged, but is never as robust as one would
  like.

4
SEI-US Structure
5
SEI-US Structure
Somerville, MA (Tufts University) Davis, CA
(University of California) Seattle, WA
(University of Washington)
6
SEI-US Structure
Somerville, MA (Tufts University) Davis, CA
(University of California) Seattle, WA
(University of Washington)
7
?
Location of El Dorado Irrigation District
8
Tour of the EID System
9
El Dorado Irrigation District System
Characteristics

• 37,000 connections
• 100,000 customers
• Runoff from rainfall and Sierra Nevadas snow
  pack
• Surface water supply 56,000 acre-feet (69Mm3)
• Vulnerable to seasonal/inter-annual variations

Gold Rush Era Ditch
10
Proposed EID Drought Plan Trigger Logic
11
Proposed EID Drought Plan Triggers
12
Integrated Water Resource Management

• Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning
  model
• GIS-based, graphical drag drop interface.
• Simulation of water demands and supplies.
• Additional simulation modeling user-created
  variables and modeling equations.
• Scenario management capabilities.
• Seamless watershed hydrology, water quality and
  financial modules
• Developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute,
  US Center

13
El Dorado Irrigation District in WEAP
14
Traditional Water Resource Models
15
Considering Climate Change
16
Climate ScenariosWhat do GCMs say about T?
17
Climate ScenariosWhat do GCMs say about P?
18
Results
19
Opportunities for the Assembled

• Improve linkages between models like WEAP, other
  sorts of models, and water and environmental data
  sets.
• Simulate the water supply and water quality
  implications of the various technologies
  presented and place them in a water system-wide
  or water basin-wide management context.
• Evaluate the energy use and the energy saving
  implications of the various technologies
  presented.

20
20
21
Water Sector Representation Available
Supplies Multi-purpose reservoir Sector
Demand Analysis Water delivery/treatment/end
use.
Hydropower Production Potential Water Management
Energy Demand
Embedded energy content/cost Greenhouse gas
content of water
Energy Sector Representation Available
Supplies Hydropower Sector Demand
Analysis Water sector
22
THANK YOUQUESTIONS?