OUEVRE (Per Jonsson, revisions by F. Werner

1
OUEVRE (Per Jonsson, revisions by F. Werner
2

• What have we learned? What models (or other
  approaches to synthesis) exist or are needed and
  of what type?
• How does climate influence variability of
  recruitment in these systems?

3
(No Transcript)
4
Nested 3D physical models, linked to climate
models u,v,w,Kz,T...
3D-coupled NPZD model (primary and secondary
production)
3D-coupled ZLCM (distribution and abundance of
individual zooplankton species)
(Prey fields)
(Prey fields)
3D-coupled fish larvae trophodynamic
model (growth and survival of fish larvae)
Environmental conditions for recruitment
5
What are the critical characteristics that make
these species useful for pan regional comparisons?

• Restate the question What evidence do we have
  that knowledge of the life history
  characteristics and physiological attributes of
  the individual species is essential to
  understanding the ecosystem dynamics?
• Consensus is that detailed knowledge of the
  individual life histories of zooplankton is
  important

6
Copepod Life History Trade-offs
60
50

40
Egg production
30
20
10
0
Pseudocalanus
Calanus finmarchicus
.
0.8
0.7
0.6
Egg survival
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
7
The species question continued

• We have approaches and detailed knowledge to
  answer questions of climate forcing on
  recruitment of the target species
• During synthesis, we need to identify how our
  knowledge can be applied to the broad question of
  climate forcing on ecosystem and function. Do the
  target species responses representative of
  ecosystem structure and function. Will inclusion
  of other key species now identified be
  sufficient? How much simplification can we
  re-introduce?

8
Data gaps

• Identification of key species not originally
  targeted (e.g. pteropods)
• Microbial components for NPZ
• Nutrient and phytoplankton data for model
  validation

9
The overarching question

• Climate forcing mechanisms local vs remote
• - Freshwater effects on density driven
  circulation and stratification
• - Winds
• Model approaches common technical issues linking
  the coupled models
• Different life histories- responses to forcing
  compare and contrast among regions
• Similarities in geomorphology eg. GB and
  Antarctica translate into similarities in forcing
  and ecosystem responses?

10
(No Transcript)
11
The structural components required for a
basin-scale study focused on planktivorus fish.
Wiebe et al. BASIN proposal (RARGOM Modeling
Theme Session)
12
Biological challenges

• Growth and reproduction dependency on food
  availability
• Understanding the processes determining entry and
  exit from fall-winter dormancy
• Mortality rates
• Vertical distribution of life stages

13
Biological challenges1
Description of linkage between primary production
and copepod growth and reproduction
Calanus finmarchicus Relationship of egg
production to phytoplankton biomass
Durbin et al. 2003 Gulf of Maine
Runge et al. (2006) Georges Bank
14
Linking the Coastal Ocean Ecosystem to Fisheries
in the Gulf of Maine Perspectives of an
Oceanographer
(this is no small topic)

• Jeffrey A. Runge
• Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and
  Space
• University of New Hampshire

15
E.O. Wilson. Back from Chaos. The Atlantic
Monthly May, 1998
Consilience The linking of facts and fact-based
theory across disciplines to create a common
groundwork of explanation.
16
Coastal ocean observing in the GoM
Remote sensing (Univ. Maine)
GoMOOS buoys
Pershing et al. 2005
SST
CPR Zooplankton (NOAA)
S, T, currents,wind, chl.a
B. Overholtz,2000
Atlantic herring coastal stock complex 1960-2000
Chl a time series (2001-04)
Surface chlorophyll
17
Haddock Scotian Shelf
Platt, Fuentes-Yaco and Frank, 2003)
18
Sustainable fisheries in a period of global change
management policy
the fishing communities
precautionary principle
Including oceanography and earth system science
(Adapted from E.O. Wilson, 1998)

• Modeling integrates knowledge across scientific
  disciplines
• Simulations provide predictions that can be
  tested against data
• The computer as a medium for communicating to
  non-experts and experts the complex synthesis of
  system knowledge

19
A general set of NPZ model equations
20
An NNPPZZDD coupled model in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence Lefouest et al., AGU 2003
Nitrates Ammonium Large phytoplankton gt 5
µm Small phytoplankton lt 5 µm Mesozooplankton
(200-2000 µm) Microzooplankton (20-200 µm) PON
Particulate Organic Nitrogen DON Dissolved
Organic Nitrogen
21
sea-ice ocean circulation model
Prognostic hindcast solution for domain-averaged
salinity temperature profiles, and sea ice
volume
Saucier et al., in prep
22
Le Fouest V, Zakardjian B, Saucier FJ, Starr M
(2005) Chifflet M, Le Fouest V, Starr M, Saucier
F, Zakardjian B (in prep)
23
coupled ecosystem sea-ice ocean circulation
model
Interannual variability in primary production
Chifflet et al., in prep
24
coupled ecosystem sea-ice ocean circulation
model
Comparisons to satellite-derived fieldsSt.
Lawrence discharge effect
model satellite
SST Chl a kCDOM vs Chl a
AVHRR SeaWIFS SeaWIFS
3rd 6th of August 1998
Le Fouest et al., submitted
25
Towards a linked model system for coastal waters
of the Northwest Atlantic Examples of coupled
physical-biological models

• Copepod life history model structure
• Example Zakardjian et al. (2003)
• Biological challenges

26
Northeast Consortium PULSE (www.pulse.unh.edu)
27
Calanus finmarchicus and map showing its
subarctic distribution
28
An example of a copepod life history model
Zakardjian et al. (2003)

• Development rate Taux de mue dépendant pour
  chaque stade de la température
• Mortality rate Taux de mortalité spécifique pour
  chaque stade et variant de façon saisonnière
• Reproductive rates Taux de ponte variant de
  façon saisonnière
• Overwintering strategy Fonction de diapause
  variant de façon saisonnière
• Vertical distribution Comportement natatoire
  spécifique par stade de développement

29
Population dynamics of Calanus finmarchicus
         


 
Zakardjian et al. 2003 JGR.
Zakardjian et al. 1999 CJFAS 562420-32
30
(No Transcript)
31
Flux computations
32
C. finmarchicus Lower St. Lawrence
Estuary 1991-1997 Jul-Sept.
Runge, Plourde, Joly, in prep.
33
2003
34
N2555
Georges Bank Broadscale cruises 1995-1999
N2786
Ohman et al., 2002
35
U.S. GLOBEC Georges Bank Broadscale Survey Cruises
Predation potential 5 yr mean
C. finmarchicus egg loss rate 5-yr mean

100,000
Cumulative
60,000
80,000
hydroids
Eggs eaten m-2 d-1
60,000
40,000
medusae
Egg loss rate
(No. m-2 d-1)
Calanus
F
40,000

Calanus
C5
20,000
20,000
Calanus
C4
Temora
F
0
Metridia

F
Centropages hamatus
F
Centropages typicus
F
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
January
Feb
March
April
May
June
Month
Month
C.typicus F
C.hamatus F
T. longicornis
M. lucens F
C.finmarchicus C4
C.finmarchicus C5
C. finmarchicus F
medusae
hydroids
36
Towards a linked model system for coastal waters
of the Northwest Atlantic Examples of coupled
physical-biological models

• Early life stages of fish
• Trophodynamics
• Transport role of variabilty in circulation

37
Larval Age Larval Size Larval Behavior
Start x0,y0,z0,t0
Yolk ?
Yolk Sac Contribution
Y
N
Encounter Rate
Successful Pursuit
Y
Light ?
Prey Biomass Encountered
Prey Conc Prey Type
Larval Size
Light Level Turbulence Temperature
Y
Next Time Step
Reduce Prey Biomass
Satiated ?
Advect, Behave xt,yt,zt,tt
N
Metabolic Costs
Consume Prey
Growth Length,Weight
Werner, Lough, Buckley and colleagues
38
Simulated larval cod growth rates ( d-1) on
Georges Bank based on observed copepod prey
concentrations Top April, 1995 Bottom April,
1998
(Runge et al. in prep.)
39
E. P. Ames, 2004. Fisheries 29 10-28
NAMA Inshore Fisheries Conservation and
Stewardship Plan (2003)
40
(No Transcript)
41
Huret M, Chen C
42
Huret M, Chen C
43
May 95
May 99
Huret M, Chen C, Runge J unpubl
44
(No Transcript)
45
coupled ecosystem sea-ice ocean circulation
model
Observed vs simulated chlorophyll a biomass
1997
1998
1999
Spring Fall
observed
predicted
Chifflet et al., in prep
46
coupled ecosystem sea-ice ocean circulation
model
Observed vs simulated nitrate concentration
1997
1998
1999
Spring Fall
observed
predicted
Chifflet et al., in prep
47
(No Transcript)