Application%20of%20Multiple%20Models%20to%20Simulation%20Fine%20Particulate%20in%20the%20Southeastern%20US

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Application of Multiple Models to Simulation Fine
Particulate in the Southeastern US

• Ralph Morris and Bonyoung Koo
• ENVIRON International Corporation
• Denis McNally and T.W. Tesche
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC
• Gail Tonnesen
• UC Riverside
• National RPO Modeling Meeting
• Denver, Colorado
• May 24-25, 2004

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VISTAS Phase I Modeling Multi-Models

• July 1999 and July 2001 Episodes
• CMAQ and CAMx
• 36 km and 12 km
• January 2002 and July 1999 Episodes
• CMAQ and CMAQ-MADRID
• 36 km only (CMAQ-MADRID in progress)
• Operate Models in a Consistent Fashion
• Same horizontal and vertical grid
• CMAQ-to-CAMx emissions, IC and BC processors
• Different met interface programs (MCIP and
  MM5CAMx)

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VISTAS Phase I Modeling Multi-Models

• Evaluation for monitoring sites in VISTAS states
• IMPROVE, CASTNet, SEARCH, STN (July 2001 only)
• Soccer Goal plots of summary performance
• Plot Fractional Bias versus Fractional Error
• Consider two bias/error soccer goals
• ?15/35 -- 1-hour ozone performance goal
• May exceed measurement technology
• 50/75
• Not suggested as performance goal, used to frame
  and intercompare performance across models and
  species
• Always box bias/error by ?100/200
• If performance statistics exceed these values
• then set equal to them in plot

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SO4 CMAQ 36 km Bias/Error
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SO4 CAMx 36 km Bias/Error
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NO3 CMAQ 36 km
NO3 CAMx 36 km
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Carbon (TCM, EC and OC) CMAQ 36 km
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Carbon (TCM, EC and OC) CAMx 36 km
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SO4 Hourly Timer Series _at_ SEARCH
Observed (red) CMAQ (blue) CAMx (purple)
? Jefferson St. (Atlanta)
? Yorkville (rural)
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SO4 and TCM Hourly Timer Series _at_ SEARCH
Centreville, AL Site (rural)
? Sulfate (SO4)
? Total Carbon Mass (TCM)
Observed (red) CMAQ (blue) CAMx (purple)
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TCM Hourly Time Series _at_ SEARCH CMAQ performance
issue partly due to Kz_min 0.1 m2/s
? Yorkville, GA (rural)
? Oak Grove, MS (rural)
Observed (red) CMAQ (blue) CAMx (purple)
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TCM Hourly Time Series _at_ SEARCH CMAQ Kz_min
Sensitivity Tests
? Yorkville, GA (rural)
? Oak Grove, MS (rural)
Observed (red) Kz_min 0.1 m2/s Kz_min 1.0 m2/s
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VISTAS Multi-Model Evaluation Conclusions

• CMAQ performed better for SO4, whereas CAMx
  performed better for Carbon
• MM5CAMx currently being updated to better deal
  with clouds and precipitation
• Both models had NO3, Soil and CM performance
  issues
• CMAQ lead model coming into Phase I and SO4
  performance was quite encouraging so was selected
  as primary model for Phase II
• CMAQ-AIM results pending
• Optional (currently unfunded) VISTAS Phase II
  task to apply alternative models

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VISTAS Multi-Model Evaluation Conclusions

• Once CMAQ is set up, 95 of the work for running
  CAMx is also done (and vice versa)
• CMAQ-to-CAMx emissions, IC/BC Interface Software
  makes these inputs easy to prepare
• MM5 used by both models
• Also have CAMx-to-CMAQ emissions processor
• Advantages of running multiple models
• Corroborative analysis
• Diagnostic analysis
• Additional features available
• e.g., for CAMx two-way nesting, sectional PM,
  alternative science algorithms, probing tools
  (PSAT/OSAT, DDM and Process Analysis)