Global Scenarios to be used for the GECAFS scenario exercise

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Global Scenarios to be used for the GECAFS
scenario exercise

• Monika Zurek
• FAO, Rome

GECAFS 1st Caribbean Scenarios Meeting, 1Sep 05
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Drivers, Activities and Outcomes relevant to
Developing Scenarios for analysing interactions
between GEC and Food Systems

• Societal Interests
• that relate to Food Systems
• Food Security
• Environmental Security
• Other Securities

Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in Demography Econo
mics Socio-political context Cultural
context Science Technology
I
I
Food System OUTCOMES contributing to
Interactions among DRIVERS
Naturally- induced drivers e.g. Volcanoes Solar
cycles
I
Food Security
Other societal interests
Environmental Security / Natural Capital
GEC DRIVERS Changes in Land cover
soils Atmospheric composition Climate
variability means Water availability quality
Nutrient availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
D
Food System ACTIVITIES
Arrow D Direct feedback to GEC from Food System
Activities Arrows I Indirect feedback to GEC
from Food Systems Outcomes
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Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to

• Environmental Security / Natural Capital
• Ecosystems stocks, flows
• Ecosystem services
• Access to NC assured

• Other societal goals
• Income
• Employment
• Wealth
• Social political capital
• Human capital
• Infrastructure
• Peace
• Insurance

Food Security
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference

• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

• Food System ACTIVITIES
• Producing food resource inputs, farmers, raw
  materials
• Processing packaging food
• Distribution retailing food marketing,
  advertising, trade
• Consuming food acquisition, preparation,
  consumption

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Possibilities for linking scenarios across scales

• Take full stories of global scenarios and
  translate into regional stories.
• Develop regional scenarios based on rationale for
  choosing global scenarios, the assumptions global
  scenarios make and the outcomes of global
  scenarios, ensuring that outcomes of regional
  scenarios do not conflict with outcomes of global
  scenarios.

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Global Scenarios exercises which include GEC
variables

• IPCC (climate)
• World Water Vision (water)
• Global Scenarios Group
• OECD Environmental Outlook
• (FAO 2015/2030 (projection))
• GEO-3
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

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Global scenarios to be used for GECAFS
IPCC GEO3 MA A1 Policy first Global
Orchestration A2 Market first Order
from Strength B1 Security first
TechnoGarden B2 Sustainability first Adapting
Mosaic
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MA Framework

• Indirect Drivers of Change
• Demographic
• Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy
  framework)
• Sociopolitical (governance and institutional
  framework)
• Science and Technology
• Cultural and Religious

• Human Well-being and
• Poverty Reduction
• Basic material for a good life
• Health
• Good Social Relations
• Security
• Freedom of choice and action

• Direct Drivers of Change
• Changes in land use
• Species introduction or removal
• Technology adaptation and use
• External inputs (e.g., irrigation)
• Resource consumption
• Climate change
• Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g.,
  volcanoes)

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Consequences of cross-scale feedbacks
Ecosystems develop in different ways in the
different scenarios, because of the different
events and decisions in society (including
social response to ecosystem change).
These differences occur even though the basic
ecological assumptions are the same in all
scenarios.
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Global Orchestration Order from Strength Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic Techno Garden Market First
Industrial Nations Developing Nations
Demo-graphics 2050 population 8.1 billion 2050 population 9.6 billion 2050 population 9.6 billion 2050 population 9.5 billion 2050 population 8.8 billion low
Average income growth high medium low similar to Order from Strength but with increasing growth rates toward 2050 lower than Global Orchestration, but catching up toward 2050 high
Income distribution becomes more equal similar to today similar to today similar to today, then becomes more equal becomes more equal
Overall trend in technology advances high low low medium-low medium in general high for environmental technology high
International cooperation strong weakinternational competition weakinternational competition weakfocus on local environment strong strong
Attitude toward environ-mental policies reactive reactive reactive proactivelearning proactive reactive
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Global Orchestration(global reactive)focus on
macro-scale policy reform together with a
socially conscious globalization, reactive
approach to env. management
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Create demand for environmental protection via economic growth and social improvements public goods Redefinition of the public and private sector roles improving market performance focus on global public good Increase global equity public health global education
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Order from Strength(regionalized
reactive)retreat from global institutions
results in a fragmented world, focus on national
security and protectionism, reactive approach to
env. mgmt
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Reactive problem-solving by individual nations sectoral approaches, creation of parks and protected reserves Regional trade blocs, mercantilism, self-sufficiency Security and protection
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Adapting Mosaic(Regionalized
pro-active)retreat from global institutions,
focus on strengthened local institutions and
local learning, proactive approach to env. mgmt
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Learning via management and monitoring, shared management responsibility, adjustment of governance structures to resource users, common-property institutions Focus on local development trade rules allow local flexibility/interpretation local non-market rights Local communities linked to global communities local equity
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Techno Garden (global pro-active)emphasis on
development of technologies to substitute for
ecosystem services, globalized world, proactive
approach to manage ES via technology
Dominant Approach for Sustainability Economic Approach Social Policy Foci
Green technology, eco-efficiency, tradeable ecological property rights Global reduction of tariff boundaries, fairly free movement of goods, capital and people, global markets in ecological property Improving individual and community technical expertise policies follow opportunities competition
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Market first Scenario (GEO-3)

• wealth of nations and the optimal play of market
  forces dominate social and political agendas
• globalization and liberalization to enhance
  corporate wealth, create new enterprises and
  livelihoods, and so help people and communities
  to afford to insure against or pay to fix
  social and environmental problems
• powers of state officials, planners and lawmakers
  to regulate society, economy and the environment
  continue to be overwhelmed by expanding demands

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Changes in crop land and forest area under MA
Scenarios
Crop Land
Forest Area
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Land use changes in the MA scenarios
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The MA scenarios and food production (1)

• In all scenarios food production increases, but
  food security is not achieved
• Global Orchestration
• Rapid (highest) growth in food demand (-gt econ
  dev, urbanization), part. for meat
• Growth in demand about met by increases in
  production via yield improvements and increased
  trade
• Per capita availability highest of all scenarios

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The MA scenarios and food production (2)

• Order from Strength
• Growth in demand mainly due to population
  increase
• Demand only partly met by increased production
  via area expansion, low trade
• Cost of food increases
• Number of malnourished children highest of all
  scenarios
• Adapting Mosaic
• Growth in demand due to population growth
• Increase in production via area expansion, but
  more trade opportunity
• Food more produced locally
• Better the OS but slow increases in calorie
  availability

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The MA and GEO-3 scenarios and food production (3)

• TechnoGarden
• Increase in demand due to population growth and
  economic improvements
• Demand met via yield improvements and increased
  trade
• Calorie availability similar to GO, but still
  malnourished children
• GEO-3 Market First
• Decrease of of hungry people, but total numbers
  stay the same (pop. growth)

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Cereal Production in 2050 in the MA Scenarios
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Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios
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Outcomes of the scenarios analysis (1)

• Focus on increasing the flow of provisioning
  services often leads to reductions in supporting,
  regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. This
  may reduce the future capacity of ecosystems to
  provide services.
• Monitoring ALL ecosystem services will increase
  societys capacity to avert large disturbances of
  ecosystem services, or adapt to them rapidly when
  they occur.

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Human Well-being across the scenarios
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Outcomes of the scenario analysis (1)

• The future will represent a mix of approaches and
  consequences described in the scenarios, as well
  as events and innovations that have not yet been
  imagined.
• All scenarios show different trade-offs between
  possible management strategies currently
  discussed in various policy fora.

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Outcomes of the scenario analysis (2)

• The MA scenarios examine the need to develop and
  expand mechanisms of ecosystem management that
• avoid large ecosystem changes (by reducing stress
  on ecosystems),
• allow for the possibility of large ecosystem
  changes (by choosing reversible actions,
  experimenting cautiously, and monitoring
  appropriate ecological indicators),
• increase capacity of societies to adapt to large
  ecosystem changes (diversifying the portfolio of
  ecosystem services and developing flexible
  governance systems that adapt effectively to
  ecosystem change), and
• acknowledge the implicit trade-offs that arise as
  part of available management strategies among
  ecosystem services and between ecosystem services
  and human well-being impacts.