Winter Heating or Clean Air Unintended Impacts of Chinas Huai River Policy

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Winter Heating or Clean Air? Unintended Impacts
of Chinas Huai River Policy

• Yuyu Chen
• 2009/10

with D Almond,M Greenstone, and H Li
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Poor Air Quality in China

• Notoriously high pollutant concentrations
• The ambient concentrations of TSP 1981-1993 more
  than double the National Air Quality Standard of
  200 mg/m³ (Bi et al., 2007)
• Some of the highest concentrations ever recorded
  (World Bank 2007)
• Five times the US level before the passage of the
  Clean Air Act in 1970!
• By 2003, TSP had dropped in Beijing 80 from the
  early 1980s! That means the 1980s were really
  bad.

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Poor Air Quality in China
If I work in your Beijing, I would shorten my
life at least five years Zhu Rongi, Prime
Minister and long-time Shanghai resident
Source The Economist (2004), quote from 1999
Point Exploit variation within China and within
cities to examine health consequences of air
pollution
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The Huai River Policy

• Free coal for home heating north of the Huai
  river Qingling mountain range
• More polluted air north of the line

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Motivation

• Research Question What are the health
  consequences of air pollution?
• Reasons to focus on China
• Extremely high levels of total suspended
  particulates
• Variation in pollution, in part driven by coal
  use and Chinas home heating policy
• Inter-annual variation in pollution allows for
  inference on infant outcomes, where exposure is
  clear
• Restricted mobility makes selective sorting less
  likely

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Overview

• Preview of Results
• Detailed Results
• Section 2 Background
• Section 3 Data
• Section 4 Impact of Policy on Air Quality
• Section 5 Main results on infant outcomes
• Section 6 Robustness checks
• Conclusions

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Preview of Results

• Evidence on Policys Impact on Air Quality
• North of line higher TSPs - ambient TSP levels
  are over 400 µg/m-3 higher just above the Huai in
  our sample!
• North of line, colder winters are associated with
  higher TSP levels. This allows for models which
  include city fixed effects and use within-city
  variation.
• Evidence on Infant Outcomes
• Using OLS models, we find 100 µg/m-3 lowers
  birthweight by 8 grams.
• Using our IV, which is temperature X North, we
  find 100 µg/m-3 lowers birthweight by 14 grams.
• Big effect -gt perhaps 25 of heavy maternal
  smoking.
• Heterogeneity in effect births at the bottom
  seem most affected
• Robustness checks and falsification tests
  post-natal TSP, Yangtze river, rich controls for
  direct effect of weather.

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Section 2Background
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Chinas Heating System The Huai River Policy

• Heating system was established during the planned
  regime 1950-1980 by the state
• Heating was provided by the government or
  state-owned enterprises for free until the
  mid-1990s
• In four winter months Nov 15-March 15
• Due to budgetary limitations, heating system only
  exists in the North to the Huai River Qinling
  Mountains (33.03-34.25 degrees latitude)

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Winter Heating System

• The boiler-heating system
• Coal is burned to heat water
• The heated water is sent to each household though
  iron pipes
• They are inefficient
• in energy use compared to electric, gas and oil
  heating systems used in the US (Wang et al.,
  2007 Jiang, 2007)
• The heated water travels a long distance to a
  household, during which there is a substantial
  energy loss

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Winter Heating A Major Polluting Source in the
North

• In Yinchuan, TSP concentrations are significantly
  higher in the winter then other seasons (Fan et
  al., 2004)
• In Wulumuqi, 90 of the pollutants in the winter
  are emitted from the heating system (Tianshan,
  2006)
• Visibility in five northern cities in winter was
  much lower than the rest of the year (Qiu and
  Yang, 2000)

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The Chimney of a Boiler
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Winter Heating A Major Polluting Source in the
North

• In Yinchuan, TSP concentrations are significantly
  higher in the winter then other seasons (Fan et
  al., 2004)
• In Wulumuqi, 90 of the pollutants in the winter
  are emitted from the heating system (Tianshan,
  2006)
• Visibility in five northern cities in winter was
  much lower than the rest of the year (Qiu and
  Yang, 2000)

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Section 3Data
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Data

• Air Quality
• Sample of 90 cities with Total Suspended
  Particulates for 1981-1991 taken from Chinas
  Environmental Yearbooks
• Weather Stations
• Monthly readings for stations in China for all
  cities in our sample with air quality data (very
  rich data)
• Infant outcomes
• UNICEF survey (1992). Approximately 24,000 births
  in 45 cities with matched weather and air quality
  data from 1981-1991.

TSP matched to births
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Sample of Births, Weather, and Air Pollution
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Section 4Impact of Policy on Air Quality
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Higher Pollution Just North of Line
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Colder Winter gt More Pollution
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Two Potential Strategies

• Quasi RD set-up
• City Fixed Effects set-up

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Point TSP rises at line. TSP Temp gradient
above line as well.
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Section 4Infant Outcomes and Air Quality
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Ordinary Least Squares
Point TSP levels are correlated with infant
weight. An extra 100 units of TSP lowers
birthweight by 8 grams.
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Reduced Form
Point An extra degree of northern temperature
raises birthweight by almost 11 grams.
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Two Stage Least Squares
Point An extra 100 µg/m-3 drops birthweight by
14 grams. Back of Envelope Line increases TSP
by 500 -gt 70 gram reduction! Smoking -gt 300 gram
reduction.
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Section 5Robustness Checks and Falsification
Exercises
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Point Our result passes these tests.
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Using the Discontinuity
Point Quasi-RD similar answer, but not
measured precisely
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Heterogeneity in Impact
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Why do we observe this heterogeneity?

• Biology.
• Parental response and protective measures, such
  as spending less time in polluted outdoor areas
  during cold winters. That could yield
  heterogeneous treatment effects.
• Indoor air pollution. Cold air forces you indoors
  and poorer households are more poorly ventilated.
• ????

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Instrument for Birth Weight

• If this research has convinced you that cold
  winters induce lower birth weight, what can we
  learn about parental responses to low child
  endowment?
• Compensatory
• Reinforcing
• Measuring investments in children
• Time spent breastfeeding
• Immunizations
• Education

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Conclusions

• Northern Chinas easy access to coal due to the
  policy rule has real consequences for air
  pollution and particulate levels.
• The poor air appears to have real health
  consequences on birthweight. Preferred estimate
  14 gram reduction per 100 µg/m-3.
• Robustness checks tell similar story.
• Biggest effect among at risk births action is
  in tail of distribution
• Areas for future work
• More on heterogeneity, why we observe this,
  models with mother fixed effects.
• Analysis on how parents respond to births with
  lower endowment (e.g. Rosenzweig Zhang 2009)