Energy Efficiency Past, Present and Future The PNW as Harbinger for the US

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Energy Efficiency Past, Present and Future The
PNW as Harbinger for the US

• Mike Weedall, Vice President, Energy
  EfficiencyBonneville Power AdministrationSeptem
  ber 25, 2007

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Presentation Outline

• Context and Background Why we do energy
  efficiency
• Current Objectives for EE in the PNW. Can the
  rest of the US be far behind?
• Energy Issues and Future Prospects for EE

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Context and Background
BPA Headquarters, Portland, Oregon
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BPA Overview

• Federal agency (DOE) responsible for marketing
  and distributing electricity from 31 Federal
  hydro projects dams, one non-federal nuclear
  plant and several small non-federal power plants
• in the PNW
• Supplies about 40 percent of the electricity
• in the PNW

• Serves 140 customers (PUDs, Munis, REA Coops,
  DSIs)
• Owns, operates and maintains over 15,000 circuit
  miles of high voltage transmission lines
  (representing about 80 percent of the PNWs
  capacity) and 150 substations
• Total operating revenues exceeded 3.2 billion
• in 2005

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BPA Service Territory
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Why Pursue Energy Efficiency In Northwest?

• Pacific Northwest Planning Act of 1980
• And It Makes Good Economic Sense

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Why Energy Efficiency Reduces NPV System Cost
and Risk

• Its A Cheap (avg. 2.4 cents/kWH TOTAL RESOURCE
  COST) Hedge Against Market Price Spikes
• It has value even when market prices are low
• Its Not Subject to Fuel Price Risk
• Its Not Subject to Carbon Control Risk
• Its Significant Enough In Size to Delay build
  decisions on generation

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PNW Energy Efficiency Achievements1978 - 2005
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Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40 percent of Growth
Between 1980 - 2003
PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth
Source NW Power and Conservation Council
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Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A
BARGAIN!
Lets Be Clear
Source NW Power and Conservation Council
Slide 10
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3,100 aMW is equivalent to

• Enough electricity to serve the entire state of
  Idaho and all of Western Montana
• Saving the regions consumers nearly
• 1.3 billion in 2005
• Lowering 2005 PNW carbon emissions by an
  estimated 13.5 million tons.

Source NW Power and Conservation Council
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Source of Electricity Supply in PNW

• Energy efficiency was the PNWs fourth-largest
  source of electricity supply in 2006.

Source Energy Information Administration
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Conservation Significantly Reduced Projected PNW
Electricity Sales
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PNW Annual Utility System and SBC Administrator
Conservation First Year Cost per MWa
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Councils 5th Power Plan Relies on Energy
Efficiency Renewable Resources to Meet Load
Growth
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Councils 5th Power Plan Energy Efficiency
Action Items

• Ramp up lost opportunity energy efficiency
• Accelerate the acquisition of non-lost
  opportunity resources (discretionary)
• Employ a mix of mechanisms
• Increase emphasis on Commercial and Industrial
  Sectors
• Expand market transformation initiatives,
  including revising codes and standards

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Cost-Effective Savings by Sector (2005 2025)
Source NW Power and Conservation Council
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Near-Term Energy Efficiency Targets2005 - 2009
700 aMW
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ENERGY EFFICIENCYTEN YEARS HENCE
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Retirement
10-Years From Now .
Mike in Retirement Reading His Favorite Book
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No Retirement for Mike
10-Years From Now .
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And The Reason For No Retirement

• 40,000 times Four-Years No Retirement for
  Mike

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Bonneville Power AdministrationRegional Dialogue
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Public Benefits Mandates in the PNW

• Washington I-937
• Applies to all utilities that serve more than
  25,000 customers
• (17 utilities 80 percent of load).
• Starting January 1, 2010, utilities must acquire
  all cost-effective energy efficiency in their
  service areas.
• By 2020, 15 percent of their power supply will be
  from renewables.
• Oregon
• 3 percent of investor-owned utility retail
  revenues go to energy efficiency, renewables, and
  low-income weatherization.
• Tax incentives for energy efficiency already in
  place.
• Portfolio Standard initiative under
  consideration.
• Idaho
• PUC energy efficiency rider that 1.5 percent of
  retail investor-owned utility revenues be spent
  on energy efficiency.
• Montana
• 2.4 percent of utility revenues go to energy
  efficiency and low-income assistance.

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Whats Next in Energy Efficiency?

• The technological boom that affects so much of
  our lives will bring us more energy efficient
  options

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BPAs EnergyWeb
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Transmission Lines
Energy Efficiency can help avoid the high cost of
new transmission lines
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Market Transformation

• The Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA)
  Market Transformation efforts are changing the
  market so the most efficient options are part of
  everyday business

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BPA Technology Innovation
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Key Factors Going Forward

• Carbon-Based Initiatives
• Demand-Response

• Federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPA 2005)
• Pending Federal and State Legislation
• ???

President Bush signs EPA 2005. White House photo
by Eric Draper.
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• Growing Blanket of Carbon Dioxide Raises Earths
  Temperature

Earths ground temperature is rising 1 ½ degrees
a century as a result of carbon dioxide
discharged from the burning of about
2,000,000,000 tons of coal and oil yearly.
According to Dr. Gilbert N. Plass of the Johns
Hopkins University, this discharge augments a
blanket of gas around the world which is raising
the temperature in the same manner glass heats a
greenhouse. By 2080, he predicts the airs
carbon-dioxide content will double, resulting in
an average-temperature rise of at least four
percent. If most of mans industrial growth were
over a period of several thousand years, instead
of being crowded within the last century, oceans
would have absorbed most of the excess carbon
dioxide. But because of the slow circulation of
the seas, they have had little effect in reducing
the amount of the gas as mans smoke-making
abilities have multiplied over the past hundred
years.
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Growing Blanket of Carbon Dioxide Raises Earths
Temperature (Popular Mechanics, August 1953)
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CBH Electric System Benefits

• Efficient Grid Management
• Ancillary services (spinning reserve
  regulation)
• Dispatchable reactive power
• Peak demand services (demand response)
• Reduced operating and planning reserves
• Distribution/substation level support
• Reduced line losses
• Improved power plant efficiency
• Improved load factor
• Storage Integration of Renewables Wind PV
• Emergency Power Supply
• 1 CBH power 4 houses _at_ ave load 1.5 kW/house

Source March 2007 Presentation by Jon
Wellinghoff, Commissioner Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission
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Estimated 2007 North American Energy-Efficiency
Budgets

• Electric Gas Combined Total
• 3.6 Billion
• US Only
• 3 Billion

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• Energy Efficiency Budgets Are Growing

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Distribution of U.S. Electric Program Dollars
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• 21 states budget gt 11 per capita