Analyzing changes of temperature over Bangladesh due to global warming using historic data

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Analyzing changes of temperature over Bangladesh
due to global warming using historic data

• Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam
• Associate Professor
• Bangladesh university of engineering and
  technology
• Email akmsaifulislam_at_iwfm.buet.ac.bd

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Introduction

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  has reported in their fourth assessment report
  that global surface temperature increased 0.74
  0.18 C during the 100 years ending in 2005.
• In this context, long term changes of near
  surface air temperature over Bangladesh have been
  studied using the available historic data
  collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological
  Department (BMD).

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Data

• Maximum and minimum daily temperature data of
  last sixty years (1948-2007) collected from 34
  stations of BMD located all over the Bangladesh
  have been used in this study.
• Trend analysis has been conducted on monthly data
  for all the stations

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Study Area
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Trend Analysis
Increase 0.63 0C on 100 years scale
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Trends of Minimum Temp
Increase 1.37 0C on 100 years scale
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ID Station Latitude Longitude Altitude Max. Temp. (0C per yr.) Min. Temp. (0C per yr.)
11704 Barisal 22.72 90.37 2.1 m 0.0077 -0.0163
11706 Bhola 22.68 90.65 4.3 m 0.0170 0.0206
10408 Bogra 24.85 89.37 17.9 m 0.0117 0.0404
11316 Chandpur 23.23 90.7 4.9 m 0.0163 0.0161
11921 Chittagong 22.35 91.82 33.2 m 0.0224 0.009
41926 Chuadanga 23.65 88.82 11.6 m -0.0038 0.0217
11313 Comilla 23.43 91.18 9 m 0.0049 -0.0009
11927 Cox's Bazar 21.45 91.97 2.1 m 0.0295 0.022
11111 Dhaka 23.78 90.38 6.5 m 0.0119 0.0225
10120 Dinajpur 25.65 88.68 37.6 m -0.0213 0.0151
11505 Faridpur 23.93 89.85 8.1 m 0.0275   --
11805 Feni 23.03 91.42 6.4 m 0.0174 0.0331
11814 Hatiya 22.45 91.1 2.4 m 0.0261 -0.0202
10910 Ishardi 24.15 89.03 12.9 m 0.0032 0.0037
11407 Jessore 23.2 89.33 6 m 0.0147 0.0113
12110 Khepupara 21.98 90.23 1.8 m 0.0266 0.0037
11604 Khulna 22.78 89.53 2.1 m 0.0037 -0.0053
11925 Kutubdia 21.82 91.85 2.7 m 0.0416 0.0248
11513 Madaripur 23.17 90.18 7 m 0.0047    --
11809 Maijdicourt 22.87 91.1 4.9 m 0.0193 0.0204
41958 Mongla 22.47 89.6 1.8 m 0.0430 0.0104
10609 Mymensing 24.73 90.42 18 m -0.0086 0.0086
12103 Patuakhali 22.33 90.33 1.5 m 0.0328 0.026
10320 Rajshahi 24.37 88.7 19.5 m 0.0110 0.0027
12007 Rangamati 22.63 92.15 68.9 m -0.0039 -0.0178
10208 Rangpur 25.73 89.27 32.6 m -0.0259 0.0281
11916 Sandwip 22.48 91.43 2 m 0.0074 -0.0182
11610 Satkhira 22.72 89.08 4 m 0.0065 0.0107
41858 Sayedpur 25.75 88.92 39.6 m 0.0266    --
11912 Sitakunda 22.63 91.7 7.3 m 0.0581 -0.0212
10724 Srimangal 24.3 91.73 22 m 0.0030 0.0237
10705 Sylhet 24.9 91.88 33.5 m    -- 0.0057
41909 Tangail 24.25 89.93 10.2 m 0.0174 -0.0234
11929 Teknaf 20.87 92.3 5 m 0.0242 0.0236
Trends of Temperature For 34 ground measuring
Stations of BMD
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Trends of Maximum Temp.
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Trends of Minimum Temp.
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Minimum Temperature Maximum increase 0.0404 at
Bogra Minimum increase -0.023 at Tangail
Maximum Temperature Maximum increase 0.0581 at
Shitakunda Minimum increase -0.026 at Rangpur
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Monthly temperature over Bangladesh (1948-2007)
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Month-wise Trends
Month Max. Temp. (0C per yr.) Min. Temp. (0C per yr.)
January -0.0142 0.0104
February 0.0000 0.0340
March -0.0117 0.0220
April -0.0142 0.0121
May 0.0010 0.0052
June 0.0139 0.0103
July 0.0116 0.0075
August 0.0183 0.0081
September 0.0070 0.0031
October 0.0178 0.0078
November 0.0270 0.0289
December 0.0147 0.0270
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Trends of minimum temp. in January
Increase 1.04 0C in 100 years
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Trends of minimum temp. in February
Increase 3.5 0C in 100 years
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Average Temperature in January (1948-2007)
Daily Minimum
Daily Maximum
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Effect of Temperature rise on Agriculture

• In winter season (Nov-Feb), the main crops of
  Bangladesh are
• Boro (rice), Wheat, Potato, vegetables.
• Increase of winter temperature can reduce the
  environmental suitability for wheat, potato and
  other temperate crops grown in Rabi season.
• It might benefit Boro paddy and kharif crops.
  

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Wheat growing areas and minimum temperature trend
map in January
Trends of minimum temp
Wheat coverage area
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Effect on Potato Temperature derived from MODIS
data during January, 2006
Temperature map in January
Plantation starts on December
Potato Field in Munshigonj
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Presently working

• We are presently working on the future prediction
  of temperature trends using PRECIS regional
  climate change model.
• Climate Change Study Cell has been formed in our
  university with vision of to establish itself as
  the premier knowledge center on climate change
  risk and adaptation for Bangladesh.

http//teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/
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Conclusion

• Both daily minimum and maximum temperature shows
  positive trends over Bangladesh. Increase of
  daily maximum temp. is 0.63 0C and daily minimum
  temp is 1.37 0C in 100 years.
• Maximum increase of daily maximum temp. has
  occurred in November at 2.7 0C and daily minimum
  temp. has occurred in February at 3.4 0C in 100
  years.
• Maximum increase of daily maximum temp. has
  occurred as 5.810C at Shitakunda and daily
  minimum temp. has occurred as 5.04 0C at Bogra in
  100 years.
• Increase of winter temperature can reduce the
  environmental suitability for wheat, potato and
  other temperate crops grown in Rabi season.

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Thank you