Douglas HoltzEakin Paul A' Volcker Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Adviser, Macroeconomi

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Douglas Holtz-EakinPaul A. Volcker Fellow,
Council on Foreign RelationsSenior Adviser,
Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC

• Alternative Fiscal Scenarios
• Train Wreck or Return to Sanity?

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Federal Debt, 1790 to 2002
(Percentage of GDP)
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The Population Age 65 or Older as a Percentage of
the Population Ages 20 to 64 (Percent)
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Federal Debt Held by the Public Under
CBOsLong-Term Budget Scenarios
Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
Scenario 1 higher spending/lower
revenues Scenario 2 intermediate spending/lower
revenues Scenario 3 lower spending/lower
revenues
Scenario 4 higher spending/higher
revenues Scenario 5 intermediate
spending/higher revenues Scenario 6 lower
spending/higher revenues
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A Scenario for Total Federal Spending and Revenues
Percentage of GDP
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Total Federal Spending for Medicare and Medicaid
Under Different Assumptions About Excess Cost
Growth
Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
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Sources of Medicare Cost Growth Since 1970
Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
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Social Security Outlays and Revenues Under the
Scheduled Benefits Scenario
Percentage of GDP